Fold TPGK to 3 flush turn CR?

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Do you have a WSD figure?

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Fairly low for someone with his other stats, like 33%. Don't see how it helps the decision much, though, especially since this takes awhile to converge.

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It relates instantaneously to the other figures provided.

This guy is seeing 52% of flops. 30\60 hands.
He calls flops 8 times more than he bets.
He calls twice as often as he bets on the turn.
He bets\raises 3 times more often than he calls on the river.

But still manages to showdown 10\30 hands.
This guy is a chaser and by the looks of things will chase anything.
I put a flush or a hand that has you reverse dominated in this guys hands way more than 1:7.

But like Miles says, next time he tries it, I'll think twice.

Fold.

[numeri]

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This guy is seeing 52% of flops. 30\60 hands.
He calls flops 8 times more than he bets.
He calls twice as often as he bets on the turn.
He bets\raises 3 times more often than he calls on the river.

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You're missing a couple facts here. First, he can fold, too. That also affects the aggression factor. Second - and more importantly - this is through 31 hands that he's actually seen a flop with. Of those, he's had 10 go to showdown. That seems a bit small of a sample size to make any inferences about postflop play.

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This guy is seeing 52% of flops. 30\60 hands.
He calls flops 8 times more than he bets.
He calls twice as often as he bets on the turn.
He bets\raises 3 times more often than he calls on the river.

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You're missing a couple facts here. First, he can fold, too. That also affects the aggression factor. Second - and more importantly - this is through 31 hands that he's actually seen a flop with. Of those, he's had 10 go to showdown. That seems a bit small of a sample size to make any inferences about postflop play.

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First - folding only affects the amount of times he doesn't call. It doesn't affect anything I've said.

ie. AF = betsraises\callschecks

Second - it is because the sample size is so small that you can make inferences re: the other stats.

eg. I can be sure he's folded 12 times on the flop.

H = hands
F = folds
B = bets\raises
C = calls\checks

Flop
B + C = H - F
B\C = .12 : 8B = C
B + 8B = 30 - F
9B = 30 - F
<font color="blue">B = 2 C = 16 F = 12</font>

Turn
b\c = .54
H = 18
2.8B = 18-F
<font color="blue">B = 5 C = 9 F = 4 </font>

River
b\c = 3.34
3.34C = B
H = 14
4.34C = 14 - F
<font color="blue">C = 3 B = 10 F = 1 </font>

<font color="red">What this also tells me is that at the time of the hand, Villians WSD was closer to 40%</font>

Villian either bluffs a lot on the river or makes a lot of hands there. Now if I'd seen him show down made flushes etc in this small sample, I'd be able to tell you which one is more likely.

Well, it's only 60 or so hands, but he doesn't seem like the type of player that raises w/ a one card flush draw. He might with the Q or K, but it's probably unlikely given his relative passivity on the turn. (Definitely seems like a pot shooter or habitual slowplayer on the river since his AF is so completely skewed on that street.)

Seems like a good fold to me. You're behind to better A hands and two pair or better. Just keep an eye on him to see if he pulls this sort of stuff without the goods again. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

edit: How likely is this guy raising w/ any A, possibly worse than yours? If he always raises improving to TP, then a call down may be good. But it seems more likely that he has something better since he's relatively passive on the turn over your sample.

[numeri]

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First - folding only affects the amount of times he doesn't call. It doesn't affect anything I've said.

ie. AF = betsraises\callschecks

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Ah yes. My bad - point taken.

I'm not sure about this, though:

"B + C = H - F"

You're implying that B + C + F = H, which isn't necessarily true. Of course, for a player like this, it probably is, but it won't be for every player. (A perfect example is the hand being discussed, where hero should bet/fold on the same hand.)

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Villian either bluffs a lot on the river or makes a lot of hands there. Now if I'd seen him show down made flushes etc in this small sample, I'd be able to tell you which one is more likely.

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This was my main point as well. I just didn't express it very clearly. Since the sample is so small, villain may just have run hot and hit more hands at the river than he should. As you mentioned, we need to see a hand or two shown down to really know for sure.

Nice analysis, BTW.