TT makes top set on a coordinated flop

[BigBiceps]

easy call.

He could have only 1 out if he has a set, or 0 outs if he has two pair or AT. He could be nearly dead if he has something like JJ with about 4 outs. He could also have something like 99 and have about 8 outs.

He could have something like JQs and pushing a big draw.

I think he has a straight only about 20% of the time if he is a typical opponent. Even if he does, you still have outs.

[nietzreznor]

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I'm pretty suprised how many of you think I'm ahead most of the time. I put him around 70% of the time having the straight here.


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Easy call. You're realtively short stacked, so you're getting pretty good odds as is. Even if he has the straight 70% of the time, you have decent equity here, and the times he doesn't have the straight, he'll have lower set where you're a HUGE favorite, or a draw where you're a pretty good favorite.

For those who're wondering what happened, I called obviously. He had J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the board paired the turn with an 8.

I still think this calling here was only marginally +EV. I figured he most likely had a straight. A lower set was possible too, but statistically less likely. Or a flush/straight draw, which is close to 50/50.

I just couldn't imagine him pushing with just a naked flush draw or even 2 pair after the strength I showed. But we all know some people do it anyways.

Maybe not a naked flush draw, but likely OESFD or pair+flush, which you have great equity against.

I think 70% has to be an exaggeration. Just because he happened to have J9 doesn't mean that that's the only hand in villain's range here.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
For those who're wondering what happened, I called obviously. He had J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the board paired the turn with an 8.

I still think this calling here was only marginally +EV. I figured he most likely had a straight. A lower set was possible too, but statistically less likely. Or a flush/straight draw, which is close to 50/50.

I just couldn't imagine him pushing with just a naked flush draw or even 2 pair after the strength I showed. But we all know some people do it anyways.

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If we assume villain will only take this line with either a set or made J9 straight, then statistically he will have the J9 straight 72.7% of the time. The other 27.3% of the time, he will be drawing to 1 out. You had to pay $45 to win $70, so you need 39.1% pot equity to make this call +EV.

You win 94% of the time when villain has the lower set, which ends up being
25.6% pot equity.

You win 34.8% of the time when villain has the made J9 straight, which ends up being 25.3% pot equity.

So, even if we stipulate that villain will never bet this way with any hands other than a set or made J9 straight, you pot equity is 50.9%; making this a very easy call. If we were to add in the 2 pair hands that villain would rarely play this way, your call gets even easier.