**Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**

[EverettKings]

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I'm guessing you've got the best of it. Someone with some programming skills should monte-carlo this and figure out how good adanthar needs to be to make his wager correct.

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Maybe somebody did [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[AtticusFinch]

I will buck the trend and say my boy Adanthar has the best of it. I have my reasons, and they go beyond mere nepotism. If you want to know why, do 2 things:

1) Look at the payout structure for mini step 1, and see what place you need to get to get a "try again, step 1" freeroll (or better).

2) Log onto Party, pull up the list of mini step 1s, look at number of players left, and the level.

Adanthar will have far more than 6 shots at getting to step 4.

[Lloyd]

I concur and would put my money on Adanthar. Now, if this was OOT whoever loses this bet would be banished from the island [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[EverettKings]

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I concur and would put my money on Adanthar. Now, if this was OOT whoever loses this bet would be banished from the island [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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The sideaction window is open to those feeling lucky[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. We can check his status if you like.

[AceofSpades]

Hey Everett are you still taking sidebets? $75 says Adanthar makes it into ministep 5. PM me to work out the details about money transfer.

Joseph

[EverettKings]

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I will buck the trend and say my boy Adanthar has the best of it. I have my reasons, and they go beyond mere nepotism.

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So do I. I'll spell it out later but I want other thoughts.

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If you want to know why, do 2 things:

1) Look at the payout structure for mini step 1, and see what place you need to get to get a "try again, step 1" freeroll (or better).

2) Log onto Party, pull up the list of mini step 1s, look at number of players left, and the level.

Adanthar will have far more than 6 shots at getting to step 4.

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Of course, there's so many ways to fall back to step 1 or better that it's hard to bust out! In fact, we both agreed that he probably only busts in step 1 about 20-25% of the time. But he's still a dog.

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Adanthar will have far more than 6 shots at getting to step 2.

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FYP

[Rizen]

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I will buck the trend and say my boy Adanthar has the best of it. I have my reasons, and they go beyond mere nepotism. If you want to know why, do 2 things:

1) Look at the payout structure for mini step 1, and see what place you need to get to get a "try again, step 1" freeroll (or better).

2) Log onto Party, pull up the list of mini step 1s, look at number of players left, and the level.

Adanthar will have far more than 6 shots at getting to step 4.

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I agree. I'm going to go with the minority and take Adanthar here. I think that as long as he is willing to pass up a few +cEV spots for the sake of the wager, people play mini-steps so badly that you could almost fold your way to a freeroll in mini step 1 and then try and win it every time. Once you get beyond step 1 you HAVE to take dead last in order to not loop back.

I'm not near the SnG player Adanthar is, and I think I could probably do this (and no, I'm not accepting wagers). Just look at the structure: http://www.partypoker.com/news/event...-steps-05.html

If Adanthar had to win a step 5 I'd probably go against him, but the way I understand this he simply has to make it to a step 5, correct? I'll be interested in following, but I think as long as he's willing to be very risk adverse in his mini step 1s, this is easy money for him.

-Rizen

[adanthar]

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people play mini-steps so badly that you could almost fold your way to a freeroll

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I've open folded AK 3 times so far.

[EverettKings]

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people play mini-steps so badly that you could almost fold your way to a freeroll

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I've open folded AK 3 times so far.

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At what point in the tournament?