Rivered 2 pair makes a flush, my play? PR 1/2

[cfjr2]

it's a matter of equity - assuming you are only beat by a flush this is 1 in 4 (or 3:1), if you put in 75% of the $ you are even, since you are only putting in 50% of the bets you are +EV as you win 3 in 4 times
(unless you have a specific read that the villan in question will not raise on the river unless he has the nuts vs. lower 2 pair he thinks is good - in which case you "could" fold but you need to be real sure as thereare now 13 BB in the pot)

[imported_The Vibesman]

KJo doesn't play well against a large field. The raise preflop is because you'd rather have it heads-up against the limper or 3way w/ limper + blind. Just limping in now encourages a lot of drawing hands to limp in that would not call a raise. Plus raising could very well buy the button for you.

Bet the river because worse hands will generally check the river behind. If he has been calling down with a pair of jacks, (say JT or similar) the fact that the river is an overcard and a diamond will scare him and he is likely to check behind, but he'll probably crying-call a single bet on the river just to see if he's been sucked out on. Forces him to put in a bet with hands he loses with as well as hands he wins with. If you don't bet, he puts in money with the best hand (generally) and doesn't put in money with the worst.

You need to just call if he raises, there are many things he raises that beat you, but there are also hands he raises that don't (worse two pair, pair of Kings).

[pokerdirty]

most of you were correct, the guy checked the river and showed 97[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Thanks for the help, maybe some of you will be seeing more of me in here rather than in OOT & SE [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[davelin]

Easiest river bet.

[midwestkc]

Ahh..that makes sense now...Well, now we all know why suck, and why I have to get better about posting my thoughts on hands, instead of just reading (or worse yet, not reading, as I've been a little too much in the habbit of lately).

Being afraid of the flush on the river is silly. At these low stakes tables, many opponents will call to the river with any pair.

[car ramrod]

[ QUOTE ]
*grunch*

I'd check call...this was played just like a flush draw, IMO. I think we got sucked out on. I can see the bet/call play, but would like to save my $2. The problem is that you just improved to 2 pair. I think a fair amount of the time you are against a lower pair, but not enough to lead out.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way you can assume he was on a flush draw just because he called a bet on the flop and 1 on the turn. Now if there were more people in and they were raising on teh flop and turn, and he was cold calling the whole way, then you might be able to put him on a draw. But this is heads up, he probably just has a weaker J or a 7 and is calling down, we have to make this value bet or we are losing money.

I might be missing something here, but I’m wondering what you mean by "assuming you are only beat by a flush this is 1 in 4." Are you saying there’s a 1 in 4 chance that villain has a flush? If so, how did you come up with this? All we see are three diamonds on the board. So wouldn’t the chance that a (random) hand has two of the remaining 10 diamonds be 10/46 * 9/45, or about 1 in 20? Granted, villain’s cards aren’t random, so the likelihood of him having two suited at the river is higher. Or, as I said, I might be misunderstanding what you mean.

[HouseCalls]

KJo is a slightly loose call from early position if four players on the flop is typical in this game...

As played I agree with check/call on the river.

[cfjr2]

I was figuring random first card then 12 / 51 = ~ 1 in 4
chance of any two suited.
I was using the starting hand prob. as he would have folded(?) by now w/ a different 2 suiter (except for the pair / 2 pair hands he loses) - otherwise it is ~1 in 4 / 4 or 1 in 16 which makes it even more +EV to bet here since he is even more likely to have a losing hand.

the real point was that I feel there is > 50% probability to win so every bet you call / get called is +EV. (3 betting is bad because the raise brings you to 50/50!)

Is this faulty?