Orange!

[rory]

does anyone ever not bet the river after they semi-bluff raise the turn?

[brazilio]

You just asked why we should 3-bet the turn if he's 100% on the spade draw. I don't get your point, if he's on the spade draw he's going to pay bets on the turn to see the river card, and I'm winning. What does the river action have to do with anything?

[rory]

assume he will bet the river every time whether he hits or not if you just call on the turn and then work out what happens when you 3-bet the turn. it's -EV.

[brazilio]

oic

[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]
assume he will bet the river every time whether he hits or not if you just call on the turn and then work out what happens when you 3-bet the turn. it's -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless I’m missing something….

River play is call down:
Turn decision pot is 8 + 3 = 11BB
Flush draw 20% chance of hitting by the river.

Hero calls the turn, and river, spends 2 to win 12
.20 x -2 = -.4BB
.80 x 12 = 9.6BB
Turn/river call = 9.2BB

Turn 3bet.
Hero spends 3 to win 13
.20 x 3 = -.6 BB
.80 x 13 = +10.4
Turn 3bet = +9.8 BB, 3bet = + .6BB vs. call.

If hero folds the river when a spade falls:
Call turn:
.20 x 1 = -.2BB, EV = 9.6 - .2 = 9.4BB
3bet turn :
.20 x 2 = -.4 BB, EV = 10.4 - .4 = 10BB

3Bet = +.6BB…

[pudley4]

You did something wrong, but I haven't taken the time to look. In any case, you don't need all the extra math you did. The only thing you have to look at is the final bet you put in(your 3-bet on the turn, or the time you call your opponent's river bet).

If you put the 3-bet in on the turn, you'll win 4/5 times, and lose the other 1/5. Your EV is .6 BB ([4BB - 1BB]/5).

If you put the bet in on the river, you'll put it in 4/5 times (when the flush misses), and fold the other 1/5. Your EV is .8 BB ([4BB-0BB]/5)

[sammy_g]

I check the flop.

Tough spot on the turn. I'm confused enough that I probably just call down. I don't think SB has a monster judging from him flop play, and the pot is too big to let this go.

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't think he'll double checkraise the draw?

[/ QUOTE ]
Does anyone really play a flush draw like this? I guess I would not be shocked by J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] X [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Maybe a mid pocket pair plays this way, too. I still think the play is to call down.

[Wynton]

I've never double c/r a flush draw. You saying this is common?

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
I've never double c/r a flush draw. You saying this is common?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm saying it's not common.