big bluff in super

[stevepa]

I really like the river bluff. I think if your opponent had the ace of spades (or any decent spade) he would've bet the river, hoping you call because there's a flush on the board. I also think your bet represents the ace pretty well. Flop raise with the big draw, check behind to keep him around and then big overbet on the river. I think he folds here the vast majority of the time.

Steve

[bruce]

Good post.

Firstly, only an idiot would push with a stack this large.
Why risk your entire stack if the blinds wake up with a hand. I could make an argument for a larger BTF raise, but
I think we're splitting hairs.

If the blind were a thinking player he would call your river push. The blind made a half pot bet on the flop. If
you had a flush draw with a dry Ace most players would not make a big raise on the flop. The only scenario where you would make this play is if you have the Ace of spades with top pair and I think most players with a monster hand like this headsup would try to milk the pot and not make a big raise on the flop.

This is no limit, whether you make your move on the turn or river, I don't think it makes any difference. Given that the villian has now checked the turn and river and he doesn't appear by your notes to be a thinking player a push on the river has a high likelyhood or succeeding.

Bruce

[schwza]

these aren't exactly the same b/c i am guaranteed to get no more than a chop in a SD where the players in these hands might be getting the whole thing if they get to showdown and misread villains' hands.

betting

from the other side


[ QUOTE ]
And don't give me crap like I am clueless. I won the Guarenteed $40K last week. Yes, I had the luckbox on but never would I make a play like this sacrifising any FE i had left in a tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, are you trolling? first you say to open push for 27x and now you're saying that you need to not risk letting your stack dip?

[Sam T.]

This is really nice.

What is your plan if he leads the turn or the river?

I like the check behind on the turn - no reason to give him the chance to CR if he hit his hand, and the open check on the river should tell you your bet is not going to be called. (Unless he is the world's biggest calling station.)

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
Good post.

Firstly, only an idiot would push with a stack this large.
Why risk your entire stack if the blinds wake up with a hand. I could make an argument for a larger BTF raise, but
I think we're splitting hairs.

If the blind were a thinking player he would call your river push. The blind made a half pot bet on the flop. If
you had a flush draw with a dry Ace most players would not make a big raise on the flop. The only scenario where you would make this play is if you have the Ace of spades with top pair and I think most players with a monster hand like this headsup would try to milk the pot and not make a big raise on the flop.

This is no limit, whether you make your move on the turn or river, I don't think it makes any difference. Given that the villian has now checked the turn and river and he doesn't appear by your notes to be a thinking player a push on the river has a high likelyhood or succeeding.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree with much of this. I would raise the flop here with a ton of hands, the naked ace of spades included. Against most players, a flop raise has huge fold equity. I think Schwza played this hand EXACTLY how I would play the ace of spades, regardless of what my other card was. The check-behind on the turn would be to induce a river bet and then the river push because he's probably either folding regardless of what you bet or calling regardless of what you bet (i.e. he has a reasonable spade or he doesn't).
For what it's worth, I think Schwza would've gotten me to fold just about everything except the ace of spades and probably the queen of spades.

Steve

[zambonidrivr]

What is trolling?
Thanks for the links.

[EverettKings]

I would have checked behind.

When he calls your turn raise, his range actually gets quite limited. I think a two pair or set pushes there, as does a flopped flush. So he can have a one pair hand with no spade, which will most definitely be Kx (where x is probably mediumish, like 7-J). His other real options are a medium or top pair with a spade, the lone As, or QsJx. So all of those medium kings where the x is a spade, plus stuff like Tx9s.

So he checks the turn and river. QsJx is out the window, as is the As, since he'd have bet for sure. So you're looking at a decent nonspade king (which you can bluff) or a king or ten with the 6s-9s. So how do you know if it's a spade hand or a nonspade hand? Calling speed on the flop. If he called your bet with reasonable haste (i.e. no significant hesitation), he likely has a spade to go with his hand. If he didn't, he'd be much more hesitant to call. This is a very nonscientific read that works against undeveloped players (like this guy).

I'm guessing that he called your flop bet at a reasonable rate (only a few seconds pause), so he's much more likely to have a spade in his hand. I'd say he has a spade 75% of the time there, so I check behind. But what percent sure do you need to be to check behind?

But this read that you may or may not be buying might not even be necessary. Let's do some math.

Pot is 25k, he has 15k.

Case 1, neither of you has a spade (Let's say this happens X percent of the time, I think it's about 25%)
Option A- You check, you get 12.5k (weighted X%, so 12.5X).
Option B- You push, you get 25k (weighted X%, so 25X).

Case 2, he has a mediumish spade ((1-X) percent of the time, I think it's about 75%)
Option A- You check, you get 0.
Option B- You push, you lose 15k (weighted (1-X)%, so -15(1-X)).

I used X so we can figure out what X has to be for a push to be profitable.

So with line A, your EV is 12.5*X
With line B, your EV is 25*X-15*(1-X)
Equating the two, we get
12.5X = 25X - 15 + 15X
12.5X + 15 = 40X
27.5X = 15
X = 15/27.5 = 6/11 = 55%

So he has to have no spade over 55% of the time for a push to be profitable. In other words, he has to have a spade less than 45% of the time.

So if you think he has a spade less than 45% of the time, push. Even if you throwing my "timing" read crap out the window, I don't like the odds there (based on no other information, I bet he has a spade 60% of the time). And based on my assumption that he called your flop bet without significant hesitation, I think he has a spade a good bit more than that (like, 75-80% of the time). My read is K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (yeah, I named the King's too).

Everett

PS I absolutely check the turn here. If he has a good spade you expect to hear from him so you can give yourself a chance to get away. If the river were a blank and he still checked, you'd be quite happy. But if he led the river (blank or no blank), you could safely fold.

[zambonidrivr]

These are cash game posts. I don't believe they apply as much to tournament play. Yes, pot odds and size of bets... I get that. I looked at this hand and thought the following. You have 27K, BB is $1,000. Picking up the blinds would increase your stack to $28K, action has been folded to you with K10. 1.) Raising and picking up the blinds does not changed the material value of your stack, 2.) There is a chance to go broke on any given hand.

My comment to shove, was simply supporting your effort to pick up the blinds at the smallest risk. You would be pushing into a similair stack, who's calling range would need to be extremely tight to call. While shoving is absurd, you will probably pick up the blinds this time around,,, and next time you do this, he's calling.... but that time you'll be holding aces [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[KneeCo]

Everett, in describing the frequency of the villain holding a spade, you seem to be assuming that he will call with any spade. I don't think this is the case.

[schwza]

that's a nice post. you're ignoring the fact that he may fold a spade though.