Hand I think I played well

[Homer]

I must have learned nothing in the past year because I think he misplayed the hand at almost every opportunity.

Can you provide your thought process? Why do you like each of his decisions?

-- Thanks, Homer

[SoBeDude]

I'm not sure I want to push him off his overcards. I'm happy to let him call. I have him beat. The chance of him hitting a pair after the flop are quite low. So I'm getting the best of him if he calls me. I do want the others to fold though as I'm having trouble putting them on a hand.

And I think the turn bet shows more strength than a flop bet. People lead out on the flop with all kinds of stuff. But I think betting in to a guy who raised preflop AND bet the flop shows more strength, and hence will get more respect. I think it looks less like a "play" and more like a hand.

-Scott

[Homer]

I'm not sure I want to push him off his overcards. I'm happy to let him call. I have him beat. The chance of him hitting a pair after the flop are quite low. So I'm getting the best of him if he calls me.

Actually, you do want to push him off his overcards. If he knew what you had then he would be making a mistake by not calling a flop bet. Hence, you should want him to fold (think FTOP).

-- Homer

[SoBeDude]

Hiya Homer,

It was nice sitting with you for a bit last night on Party.

I appreciate your response. I like to see a dissenting point of view to keep me thinking.

It seems people are pretty polarized, either liking or hating my play.

But I really disagree with your preflop idea. I love any pocket pair with 3 or more callers. The implied odds are there to shoot for the set.

I bet the turn as I felt the I had the best hand, that the overcards would call, and the drawing hands would call. As long as the flush or big card didn't get there, I felt I had a good chance to pull this pot down. Now granted with 89 there was also a straight draw out, and its tougher to tell if that got there sometimes. But then when the river paired, no flush or straight made it for sure. So I think the river bet was a value bet.

I think my 5's would be good there often enough (say, 40%?) to make the play +EV.

-Scott

[JTG51]

Homer, for what it's worth I agree with most of what you said, especially preflop.

I'm anxiously awaiting Clarkmeister's response to see if he can change my mind like he often does.

[JTG51]

But I really disagree with your preflop idea. I love any pocket pair with 3 or more callers. The implied odds are there to shoot for the set.

I agree with Homer. Remember, you are going to lose bets without hitting a set many times. If someone showed you a 9 on the river in this hand, how would that 3 big bet loss you took without flopping a set make your implied odds look? Also, you will lose sometimes when you do flop a set, and you are going to lose a lot those times.

Add it up and I think you need more than one limper in front of you to call with a small pair. I think raising preflop is probably the best play in that spot.

[SoBeDude]

Ok homer, you're going to make me do math.

On the flop there are 47 unseen cards. 6 help his hand. so the odds of him catching a pair are 1-(41/47 X 39/46)

That comes out to 0.26 or 26% chance he's going to hit. Also remember he can hit and I can hit to win so his actual chance of winning is a bit less.

So for every dollar I put in the pot, I'm +EV $0.74

Also remember if a big card falls I check-fold so he has no implied odds whatsoever.

I also like the bet on the turn because many people check their overcards when they miss on the turn and there are 3 callers in the pot with them.

-Scott

[SoBeDude]

This is a typical loose online 2-4 table.

That raise has a good chance of getting NO respect. (something like 34% seeing the flop) The blinds had been playing a lot of hands, as had much of the table. I didn't feel that a raise would isolate the limper. In fact, I felt the hand would be 3-4 way regardless of if I raised or not. So the raise is a bad move in this spot. Even if just one player calls after me and I'm in with 55 I'm in deep trouble 3-way and -EV on the play. So I'd rather see the flop cheap, then determine my best course of action.

On a 5-10 table I'm raising with 55 and one MP limper. Not on 2-4 though.

-Scott

[Homer]

From a logical standpoint

If you bet into him he's getting 9:1 on the call, and his odds against improving are 39:6, or 6.5:1. Hence, he has an easy call if he knows what you have. Logically then, since calling is correct for him, you should want him to fold.

From a mathematical standpoint

(To make analysis easier let's assume it's heads-up with you and Mr. Overcards)

-- Case 1 - You bet the flop and he folds.

EV = 8 small bets

You win the 8 small bet pot 100% of the time.

-- Case 2 - You bet the flop and he calls.

EV = 7.67 small bets

6/45 times he will win the pot and you will lose 1 small bet.
39/45 times you will win the pot and will win 9 small bets.

On average, you will win (6/45)*-1 + (39/45)*9 = 7.67 small bets

Also, keep in mind that since you can't really see his cards he will steal the pot at times even when he doesn't hit, so your EV will be even lower. For example, if a Q comes on the turn, he will bet when checked to, even when he has AK or AJs.

-- Homer

[Homer]

Based on this argument, it seems that you should fold.

I alluded to this in my initial response...if you can't get it heads-up with a raise you should probably fold.

-- Homer