royal draw - 100NL

[troymclur]

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So you'd rather play a 2-way pot with just a draw? Doesn't make sense.

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The hand is worth fifty dollars to see a flop given your monster draw. You still could have outs against the CO for two pair, along with your straight and flush draws. Against the UTG, your flush draws are now a possible danger, so you want him out.

Since CO only has five bucks left you only have to worry about playing past the fifty bucks with one player, UTG. And a push, given his check, could very well push him out, especially so since its a very strong re-raise in front of strong aggression from CO.

I agree. Push the turn. But you should have bet more on the flop.

[josie_wales]

Calling is essentially commiting $70 (neither of you will fold the river for ony the $20 he has left.

So, you are (or will be) commiting 70 to win ~$115. Roughly 1.5-1 pot odds.

You are surely behind with your Q high at this point and are drawing to 5 nut outs, and 7 spades for a non-nut flush. Even if you count em all, you are 4-1 dog.

This is not counting the fact that you have UTG to act after you. Lets see if Your read on him really is all that important.

If you put him on the nut flush draw, you have just eliminated 7 of your 12 outs. Will he fold? If he does, you just got your money in as a 3 or 4-1 dog getting 1.5-1 on your money.

If he calls with a worse flush draw, you are getting better odds, but not good enough.

I think a fold is in order.

Yet, in the heat of the battle...looking at my draw....not sure Id lay it down either.

jw

Do not look at this as so much of a royal draw as a math problem a

[unlucky513]

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Calling is essentially commiting $70 (neither of you will fold the river for ony the $20 he has left.

So, you are (or will be) commiting 70 to win ~$115. Roughly 1.5-1 pot odds.

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where are you getting these numbers? when he bets $50, i'm getting about 2:1...

11 billion outs. I wouldnt push, but I'd come over the top pretty big.

I call here. You're about a 2-1 dog and you're getting proper odds although you can't gurantee your 3 9s are clean outs as CO may hold AQ. I don't worry about pushing the UTG out of the hand. He is getting 3-1 odds and if he's drawing he is likely a 4-1 dog at best. He doesn't really have any implied odds unless he has the but flush draw because you won't pay him off if you don't make your hand. This is a slight possibility and I simply wouldn't worry about it. He is a very loose player and has a wide hand range here. He could have a T, a K, 2 pair, flush draw, OESD, or a gut shot str8 draw. A loose player like this can also often be very tough to push out of the pot as they don't think logically. A push here is simply too risky without a lot of reward. Call and hope for the best. Clearly you call his $5 regardless on the river even if you know you're beat. The information alone if worth it and there's always a chance he's a donk trying to run some outrageous bluff

[unlucky513]

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11 billion outs. I wouldnt push, but I'd come over the top pretty big.

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11 billion? 2 outs for the nuts, 7 more for the flush. after the $50 turn bet, i'm pretty sure the remaining J's and Q's won't give me the winner.

Not quite 11 blillion. It's probably more like 15 and it may not even be that high because CO could have AQ for the nut str8. I certainly don't count Qs and Js as outs here. They may be clean outs but you have to be conservative when counting outs. Qs would put the board 1 off a str8 & only give you 2 pair. A J gives you a set which may lose to an already made str8 or it may fill someone up w/ a boat. If you overdue it when counting outs you will get yourself in a lot of trouble.

[unlucky513]

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I call here. You're about a 2-1 dog and you're getting proper odds although you can't gurantee your 3 9s are clean outs as CO may hold AQ. I don't worry about pushing the UTG out of the hand. He is getting 3-1 odds and if he's drawing he is likely a 4-1 dog at best. He doesn't really have any implied odds unless he has the but flush draw because you won't pay him off if you don't make your hand. This is a slight possibility and I simply wouldn't worry about it. He is a very loose player and has a wide hand range here. He could have a T, a K, 2 pair, flush draw, OESD, or a gut shot str8 draw. A loose player like this can also often be very tough to push out of the pot as they don't think logically. A push here is simply too risky without a lot of reward. Call and hope for the best. Clearly you call his $5 regardless on the river even if you know you're beat. The information alone if worth it and there's always a chance he's a donk trying to run some outrageous bluff

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my thoughts exactly

And my suggestion of a big bet here is pretty stupid too. Its push or or nothing. Why not call here? You can reassess on the next round - and even if you miss, maybe make a bluff at it.

[unlucky513]

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And my suggestion of a big bet here is pretty stupid too. Its push or or nothing. Why not call here? You can reassess on the next round - and even if you miss, maybe make a bluff at it.

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assuming UTG comes along and i miss the river, bluffing would be suicide.