Pump this Draw?

[lautzutao]

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lautzutao - I think it's very close.

I don't think you are ahead here. If MP2 has what he/she is representing, (a set of queens), then MP2 figures to do best at the showdown, on the average. However, you are getting three to one fresh money odds and have eight outs (non-pairing clubs). Unless the board pairs on the turn, you will have two chances to catch one of the eight outs. As simulated, if we give MP2 a set (QdQhXY) and if we give UTG an open end straight draw (JhThZW) and if we make all CO's cards random, then you have about a 26% equity. (With three opponents, you need better than 25% to initiate fresh money inot the pot).

Thus from an odds standpoint, you're not far from correct whether you raise or not. Now the question is, "What effect would a raise have on your opponents on the next two betting rounds, if the turn is a non-pairing club?"

You do a tiny bit better on this betting round by raising, but I think you might do a even better on the next two betting rounds by not raising.

Thus I think you should not raise here. But it's very close.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

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Ok, but I have them trapped now. And next round I wouldn't have had the edge I have now if I hit a blank on the turn. Even if I hit my draw I'm probably not going to get the opportunity I got here to trap these guys for bets.

I didn't think my equity was as close to neutral as I saw it after the fact, so you're right here. I didn't factor in villian having a set which is a HUGE error on my part, and something I'm going to have to learn to pick up on. But if I'm guaranteed 30% equity here, or there were another player in this pot, this is far and away the correct play yes?

[benwood]

BTF:Raising is better. AA plays well short-handed. Flop:Raise on the 1st opportunity instead of waiting. Shut them out of back-dooring a lo. This also cleans up your chance of winning high when the board pairs, too.

[Buzz]

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And next round I wouldn't have had the edge I have now if I hit a blank on the turn.

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lautzutao - If you hit a blank on the turn, you lost whatever bet you made on the 2nd betting round. Period. That money you lost on your 2nd round bet belongs to the pot, just like any money you bet last week on a losing lottery ticket went into the lottery pool. It's simply not yours anymore!

Now you can make a new bet on the third betting round, betting that the river is favorable. But assuming the turn was not favorable and didn't pair the board, now there are only 7 non pairing clubs, 2 enigmatic pairing clubs, and 35 blanks. When you bet on your flush draw on the 3rd betting round, there's only the river left. If you don't count the 2 pairing clubs one way or the other, the odds are 35 to 7 or 5 to 1 against you making your club flush - and you don't have 5 opponents.

Therefore you won't have favorable fresh money odds to initiate money into the pot yourself, but because of the size of the pot you'll have favorable odds to call a single bet, and maybe more (depending on the size of the pot).

Missing the turn is bad for you... not the end of the world, but bad. You miss the turn and it's missing the lottery. You'd be better off if you hadn't bought those losing lottery tickets last week.

Similarly, if you miss on the turn, you'll be better off on the third betting round if you had invested no money whatsoever on the second betting round.

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Even if I hit my draw I'm probably not going to get the opportunity I got here to trap these guys for bets.

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You'll have even less opportunity if anyone suspects you had the nut flush draw after the flop.

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But if I'm guaranteed 30% equity here, or there were another player in this pot, this is far and away the correct play yes?

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Yes. If nobody (perhaps with the king flush draw) puts you on the nut flush draw for your raise it's the best play. Far and away? I don't know about that. Maybe.

Sometimes you want to push people out of the pot and sometimes you want to pull them in. With the nut flush draw after a flop such that low is unlikely and after somebody else has already bet, I think you want to pull them in. You don't want CO of UTG with the king flush draw suddenly possibly giving up here because of facing two more re-raises.

You already have favorable odds to do either, but this is a time to pull, not push.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[lautzutao]

Thank you for these replies, they're all great.

1. Is someone with the King High Flush draw thinking I'm pumping a draw here? He's staying along unless the board pairs if he thinks it's good here. If my flush card hits King-high is probably paying me off(at this limit at least...)

2. As far as your first quote response you're sorta right. But this isn't the lottery, far from it. I'm better than 3:1 to hit my hand, why not get paid for it now while I "own" more than my share here? If I'm more than 25% to win with 4 players, someone is paying me here whether I hit my hand or not. I want to get my money in while I'm a favorite correct? If I hit my blank I'm no longer a favorite in this hand on the turn, and my equity has taken a "nose dive". I have outs and pot odds to draw to the river of course, but I no longer own more than my share of the pot. Now I'd want to get to the river as cheaply as possible. Maybe I'm not understanding what you are trying to say here... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]