$11 Okay Push? - Page 2

Sciolist · #11 10-27-2005, 05:01 AM

This looks like a fold to me... I don't like the limper, and I don't like a TAG without a big history of raising all-in doing this in front of me. I'm pretty sure I'd pass here.

#12 10-27-2005, 12:00 PM

My initial instinct was to call, but after not much thought I changed my mind.

As tigerbite et al has already pointed out, you need him to have a wide push range to make this a good move.

The range you'd need seems unlikely even from open push--toss in the fact that he's pushing into the Hero and a limper, and I can only conclude that his range is almost definitely not wide enough.

There's also the "hidden" scenerio if you're doing ICM math--the limper calls and wins, which is probably not extremely common but jacks up your equity without the gain or loss of chips. You must discount this potential equity from your final equity delta for calling (which is likely negative anyway).

jedi · #13 10-27-2005, 12:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are we looking at the same post? Some dude moved in before the hero got to act. I don't see how we can play AQ as we have to be a 54-55% favorite against the pushers range. If he is playing TAG I don't see how we have it in this spot though I could be wrong. From SNGPT, it is a sizable mistake if he is pushing 77+ and A9+.

Edit - If the dude in front pushed I'd call with AK and fold AQ. If the dude in front folded I'd push for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is in the Big Blind, right? That skews the numbers enough where I think this is auto call, especially if hero is playing for first. If he is trying to limp into the money, then fold but there's no guarantee that limper villain behind will call the all-in for 1/2 his chips. He might be "action bluffing" here and you could be easily ahead of SB's hand in this situation. SB might just be taking a stand with a worse A high.

#14 10-27-2005, 12:46 PM

That might be a great point--I forgot about the fact that hero really only has ~1150 if he folds.

I still don't think it's an auto-call, though.

jedi · #15 10-27-2005, 12:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That might be a great point--I forgot about the fact that hero really only has ~1150 if he folds.

I still don't think it's an auto-call, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, "auto-call" was probably a bad choice of words. Still I call, even if I don't like it.

bluefeet · #16 10-27-2005, 01:01 PM

Two problems:

- big stack is left to act
- SB pushed despite big stack's limp

While big stack's limp on it's own merits might not be too alarming, it does provide a couple pieces to the puzzle.

Removing big stack from the hand, we need a fairly wide pushing range from SB to make this +EV. Taking big stack out of the equation, it is certainly reasonable to put that range on just about any two.

But with him pusing despite big stack's limp, I think we have to reduce SB's range - perhaps so much so that this is clearly a fold, even without "problem #1".

If SB whispers to us that his range is indeed suspect, we're still not out of the woods. Big stack only needs to call t1,100ish more in a pot of t2,800. With the benifit of knowing ONE of you short stacks will be essentially out of the game.

Paxosmotic · #17 10-27-2005, 01:38 PM

Easy fold. See also : my $55 AQs thread last night where the hand was such a disaster we started talking about shoes just to make me feel better.

#18 10-27-2005, 01:39 PM

was the guy a limper at this stage??? Those are big blinds to be open limping, could mean big pocket that wants action bad! No?

tigerite · #19 10-27-2005, 01:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are we looking at the same post? Some dude moved in before the hero got to act. I don't see how we can play AQ as we have to be a 54-55% favorite against the pushers range. If he is playing TAG I don't see how we have it in this spot though I could be wrong. From SNGPT, it is a sizable mistake if he is pushing 77+ and A9+.

Edit - If the dude in front pushed I'd call with AK and fold AQ. If the dude in front folded I'd push for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is in the Big Blind, right? That skews the numbers enough where I think this is auto call, especially if hero is playing for first. If he is trying to limp into the money, then fold but there's no guarantee that limper villain behind will call the all-in for 1/2 his chips. He might be "action bluffing" here and you could be easily ahead of SB's hand in this situation. SB might just be taking a stand with a worse A high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I allowed for that as I always do. The figures I have quoted are 100% correct.