I got religion - 500 BB roll for 6-max is the minimum

[Victor]

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I know I've posted this several times before but it's really good advice previously posted by someone else:

You will run worse and take a worse downswing than you ever have before, so be ready.

-Craig

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playin 30k a month i have seen some sick stuff. im in the process of becoming immune to it.

[Victor]

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If your strategy is to drop down when you get to 200 BB's, I don't see why it matters how much you have on top of that, within reason.

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moving down sucks bc it cuts your winrate nearly in half.

[cookie]

Have 300 BBs ever been recommended for 6-max [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I think i least BBs I have had for a limit it around 800 after I got a decent BR

[MrBig30]

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I know I've posted this several times before but it's really good advice previously posted by someone else:

You will run worse and take a worse downswing than you ever have before, so be ready.

-Craig

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playin 30k a month i have seen some sick stuff. im in the process of becoming immune to it.

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Hope I will be too soon. But I am getting there lost 5000$ in a week recently and it hardly bothered me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

What every new player needs to realize IMO is that the required bankroll depends mostly on your winrate. I think that if your winrate is slightly above 2BB/100 you need more than 300BB to be safe. I have had one 230 and one 250 BB downswing during my 170K hands (+2.3BB/100) so 500BB seems like a fairly safe bankroll. On the other hand if your winrate is 1BB/100 I think you need considerably more or be at high risk of having to move down due to a downswing.

[Surfbullet]

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If your strategy is to drop down when you get to 200 BB's, I don't see why it matters how much you have on top of that, within reason.

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moving down sucks bc it cuts your winrate nearly in half.

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I agree. The corollary to being overrolled for your current limit is that taking 50BB shots at the next limit can be a relatively low-risk way to jumpstart a bankroll, so long as you have the discipline to return to your normal limit if you lose the 50BB.

Historically I've hit downswings on every step up in limits - but my shot at 15/30 is going quite well this month(*knock on wood, offer up prayer, sacrifice animal, etc*) and is encouraging me to play my A-game all the time because of the potential to move up again...

I'm glad I took the risk(I couldn't move up full-time because I rely on my poker income to meet monthly expenses) - i'm comfortably rolled for 10/20 but still hoping to climb the ladder.

Surf

[imitation]

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I'm guessing I have around 100K hands of 6-max, avg 2BB/100 winner. Several 100 BB swings along the way, no biggie. But recently I survived a 230 BB downswing, took 8000 hands to climb out of it. The whole time I wasn't worried tho because I always try to maintain a 500 BB roll. If I had the 300 BB "recommended" minimum I woulda been in deep deep caca. If I ever get to "only" 200 BBs then its time to drop down a level.

Anyway I'm glad I survived this big dip.. I'm thinking 1000 BB rolls really take the pressure off the variance. 300 just doesn't cut it for 6-max. 500 is the minimum.

L8r.. BB

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I hate you

[Surfbullet]

Hey MrBig,

I agree with the winrate assesment - but it is important to note that with a standard deviaton above 16 one has to be realistic that even the strongest winrate can go through absurd downturns.

I am a long-term winner at every limit I've played up through 10/20, and I went through a 17k, -450BB slide at 10/20 in the beginning of my time there. I broke back to even after another 10k, then hit another 180BB downswing and finished up almost 50k hands of breakeven poker before things finished turning around.

sxb, who has run at 3bb/100 over 350,000 hands at 10/20 has experienced a 650BB downswing which lasted him nearly 40k hansd. Davidross, long-time pro and significant winner has also had a 600BB dowswing.

Think about the worst downswing you've ever had. It's within the realm of reasonable probability to have 2 of those in a row. It won't happen often, but if you are logging 20k+ hands a month you'll start to see just about everything there is to see.

Surf

[Stealthy]

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sxb, who has run at 3bb/100 over 350,000 hands at 10/20 has experienced a 6050BB downswing which lasted him nearly 40k hansd. Davidross, long-time pro and significant winner has also had a 600BB dowswing.

Think about the worst downswing you've ever had. It's within the realm of reasonable probability to have 2 of those in a row. It won't happen often, but if you are logging 20k+ hands a month you'll start to see just about everything there is to see.

Surf

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Well that scares the preverbial out of me!

[MrBig30]

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Hey MrBig,

I agree with the winrate assesment - but it is important to note that with a standard deviaton above 16 one has to be realistic that even the strongest winrate can go through absurd downturns.

I am a long-term winner at every limit I've played up through 10/20, and I went through a 17k, -450BB slide at 10/20 in the beginning of my time there. I broke back to even after another 10k, then hit another 180BB downswing and finished up almost 50k hands of breakeven poker before things finished turning around.

sxb, who has run at 3bb/100 over 350,000 hands at 10/20 has experienced a 6050BB downswing which lasted him nearly 40k hansd. Davidross, long-time pro and significant winner has also had a 600BB dowswing.

Think about the worst downswing you've ever had. It's within the realm of reasonable probability to have 2 of those in a row. It won't happen often, but if you are logging 20k+ hands a month you'll start to see just about everything there is to see.

Surf

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Hi Surf!
I agree with all of that. Obviously any bankroll can be lost if you run bad enough for long enough. But I dont think you have to prepare for the absolutely worst case possible all the time, just for a more reasonable bad run. I am sure the longtime winners here at 2+2 has played tens of millions of hands together. Just because there has been at least two 600BB downswings in all of that doesnt mean it is LIKELY to happen to you or me ever. Also if you have a 450 BB slide when you start a new limit it is likely you were not a BIG winner during that period, I would guess you were a small winner (1-1.5BB/100??) while trying to adapt to 10/20 and obviously running bad too.
A 600BB downswing for a 3BB/100 winner is insanely unlikely too so I think it is likely sxb was playing a little bit worse than usual during parts of that...

[spydog]

In my last 16k hands I've had 2 200BB downswings and 3 100BB downswings. All of these were separate. Oh, and somehow I'm still up over these 16k hands. Go figure.