JJ - Page 2

ClaytonN · #11 10-26-2005, 01:39 PM

I dont see how UTG+1 can put you on a ten, but he can definitely push you off a better hand like a strong ace or JJ or 99 and iso with UTG who is likely on some stupid draw.

The only problem with this is you're essentially giving UTG a free card. So if I'm checking behind, I'm calling a bet out on the river by UTG+1 but NOT UTG. If UTG bets and UTG+1 overcalls I will likely fold.

UTG+1's pause-and-checked could literally mean anything, but this seems like just the kind of turn a tricky LAG would try and blow you off a hand with. That seems more important to me than getting another bet of value off the idiot UTG.

ClaytonN · #12 10-26-2005, 01:42 PM

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New notes for UTG+1, but it's hard to put him on exactly AQ and a bluff c/r.

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This is why I disliked betting. I said myself if I'm UTG+1 I am check raising a lot of hands here to isolate myself with the donk who is likely on a draw. This includes any made hand and strong aces if it feels right.

BigBrother · #13 10-26-2005, 01:44 PM

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I think you did the right thing. Too bad UTG+1 is a douche who thinks he can bluff a PFR and an overcaller with A-high.

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I'm discussing this play with a friend right now. I'm not totally sold that his play wasn't decent here.

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Given the bluff possibility, has the pot gotten big enough (with the overlay from fish) to call the Turn c/r getting at worst 6.5:1 if you call another on the river and UTG folds, but at best 11:1 if the river checks through?

UTG+1's bluff has to work close to 20% to be +EV. Given that fish will be showing down, essentially protecting the pot a high percentage of the time, I'm not convinced his move is winning $.

shant · #14 10-26-2005, 01:46 PM

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I think you did the right thing. Too bad UTG+1 is a douche who thinks he can bluff a PFR and an overcaller with A-high.

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I'm discussing this play with a friend right now. I'm not totally sold that his play wasn't decent here.

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Once the fish calls a scary turn again, he is not getting him off any hand. His checkraise-bluff is hoping the fish has QJ or a non-nut flush draw and you'll fold your pair? I doubt that's decent.

ClaytonN · #15 10-26-2005, 01:46 PM

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UTG+1's bluff has to work close to 20% to be +EV. Given that fish will be showing down, essentially protecting the pot a high percentage of the time, I'm not convinced his move is winning $.

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With AQ I can understand your argument, but I don't think it's foolish to say this is a good play on villain's part if he holds something like 66. Part of this depends on UTG's WTSD.

#16 10-26-2005, 01:49 PM

My amateur view on the situation is that if we bet, then its very tough for us to call if raised.
If we're behind , we still have a chance to improve to Jacks full, but we don't have the odds to call a turn check/raise, which seems very possible here. I'd rather check and take the chance to improve for free and call a river bet(in case it's a bluff) if we don't improve.

chief444 · #17 10-26-2005, 01:52 PM

Why do you think it's a good play 3-handed against one likely better hand and another very loose opponent? I think his turn check/raise sucks.

QTip · #18 10-26-2005, 01:53 PM

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I think you did the right thing. Too bad UTG+1 is a douche who thinks he can bluff a PFR and an overcaller with A-high.

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I'm discussing this play with a friend right now. I'm not totally sold that his play wasn't decent here.

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Once the fish calls a scary turn again, he is not getting him off any hand. His checkraise-bluff is hoping the fish has QJ or a non-nut flush draw and you'll fold your pair? I doubt that's decent.

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You're talking about some other donk. The fact that he called this turn means the dealer gave him 2 cards.

QTip · #19 10-26-2005, 01:56 PM

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Why do you think it's a good play 3-handed against one likely better hand and another very loose opponent? I think his turn check/raise sucks.

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I'm not saying it's good or bad yet. Another friend of mine and I are discussing it now and we're doing some math based on the ranges there. I'm thinking we're going to find it to be -EV, but not by much. I could be wrong, but that's my gut feel at this point.

If I know you, you would have played it the same way in my shoes. Am I right?

chief444 · #20 10-26-2005, 01:59 PM

Yeah, I think you played it just fine. You can't really call the turn check/raise because there's no reason for him to be check/raising the turn with a worse hand with the loose opponent apparently seeing at least the river and much more likely a showdown. If you're looking at it from the opponent's point of view...you should also figure in how often he get's 3-bet on the turn.