Spewing with aces - when should i lay it down?

[Shillx]

You can say goodnight when the button pulls off that ish. Calling on the end is just a donation dude.

Fair enough. I am indeed charitable.

[Bats]

OK, I'm a novice and I've been losing my shirt by hanging on to AA, AK etc. to the bitter end, but I'm trying to learn to let go. I haven't read the other posts yet, but clearly the problem is what the heck does the button have that he liked enough to call all those raises pre-flop and on the flop. I've played enough .5/1 on Party to know some people will stay with damn near anything. The coordinated board is not good for us, but no one capped either, so I'd figure no one has a set, but two pair is likely and a straight draw very likely. Button's raise when the Queen comes screams JT and I get out. He probably has JTsuited to justify his calling all the preflop raises.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I'm a novice and I've been losing my shirt by hanging on to AA, AK etc. to the bitter end, but I'm trying to learn to let go. I haven't read the other posts yet, but clearly the problem is what the heck does the button have that he liked enough to call all those raises pre-flop and on the flop. I've played enough .5/1 on Party to know some people will stay with damn near anything. The coordinated board is not good for us, but no one capped either, so I'd figure no one has a set, but two pair is likely and a straight draw very likely. Button's raise when the Queen comes screams JT and I get out. He probably has JTsuited to justify his calling all the preflop raises.

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Other possibilities are KQ/99/88 or maybe even KK.

I like how you played here. You have odds to improve after the turn. Hopefully, you are not behind a set. ...And the pot is big to fold on the river.

[Augster]

I think on the river you could lay it down, big pot and all.

Preflop button calls 3 cold. What could he have? I don't even put donks on calling 3 cold with anything.

On the flop, button calls 3 cold AGAIN.

On the turn I raise.

When button wakes up with the Q hitting, I think I know I'm in trouble. If he had JT, calling 3 cold preflop is a little loose. I could see him calling the flop with an OESD with JT. I could also put him on QQ, and made his set when he wakes up.

I don't think a single pair is going to win this hand, given the action, ever. So being the 3rd overcaller on the river is the only real spew I see.

If you had raised the Turn, and Button 3-bets, you'd KNOW you were beat unless you improved on the river.

Tough luck. Not much else you could do really.

*grunch*
I raise the turn. Your in perfect position and the pot is gigantinormous.

Hand plays differently after that. How you played it - I'm calling with tears streaming down my face.

I expect Button to turn over JT 7\10 times.

[@bsolute_luck]

i need a question answered from those raising this turn:

let's just assume everyone folds after you raise and UTG+1 who raised preflop, raised the flop, and is donking the turn, simply calls our raise and checks to us on the river which is a non-9/8, what is the plan? and also consider the possibility if we're check/raised. just curious.

sure the pot is huge, but i wonder what we're protecting ourselves from exactly because a gutshot is still getting fine odds to call here and we risk being 3-bet by UTG+1. could someone help me understand please [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[milesdyson]

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At the river: are we 97% sure we're beaten? It's gotta be close, but I still can't fold, especially closing. Is this not one of those situations in which calling could at worst be a small error and folding at worst a major error?

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Taken in a vacuum, sure, you can look at it this way. In the big picture, however, it's all EV. How often do you really think that one pair is good here? It's pretty darn small. There are also TWO other people who think they have a shot against someone who's shown a lot of strength on that turn. Granted, they are probably idiots, and, granted, you are closing the action, but our chances are still dubious. How dubious? Well,

If we win one time in 26.25, we break even.

If we win one time in 30 and call, our EV is about -0.1 BB.

If we win one time in 20 and call, our EV is about +0.3 BB.

Folding cannot be a big mistake for any reasonable probability we assign to our chances of winning.

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this is something a lot of people still don't understand

[ QUOTE ]
i need a question answered from those raising this turn:

let's just assume everyone folds after you raise and UTG+1 who raised preflop, raised the flop, and is donking the turn, simply calls our raise and checks to us on the river which is a non-9/8, what is the plan? and also consider the possibility if we're check/raised. just curious.

sure the pot is huge, but i wonder what we're protecting ourselves from exactly because a gutshot is still getting fine odds to call here and we risk being 3-bet by UTG+1. could someone help me understand please [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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IMHO.
The only thing to consider is the limit at which this is being played. At any higher limit and I would totally agree with you.
Players 1\2+ are used to aggression, they see it all the time, especially in a pot this big.
Even in .5\1, aggression on the flop, is expected to a certain degree. But once you get to the BB streets, raises like this blow many opponents of playable hands. You're also assuming that any GS draw knows that he has correct odds to call. Many times I've seen muppets blown off massive pots with just such a raise.
That being said, if you get 3 bet [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]