another 99 hand 1/2...is god killing a kitten after seeing this? - Page 2

deception5 · #11 10-24-2005, 01:05 PM

I'm apparently in the minority [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

My thoughts here - we're heads up after the flop against an UTG+1 poster and we have a few things going for us.

1.) Our opponent posted UTG+1.
2.) Our opponent checked preflop, decreasing the likelyhood of AA-JJ.
3.) He may put us on a free card raise which is why he 3-bet (which many players would do here on such a draw-heavy flop with any pair).
4.) He may be playing a draw aggressively. This happens very often heads up.
5.) His cards are less likely to be connected because he posted rather than limped.
6.) We raised preflop and many players automatically put preflop raisers on overcards.
7.) Unknowns are more often donks than not at this limit. Especially those who post in UTG+1.

The turn brings the 3 of diamonds. There are good reasons to bet the turn.

1.) We may fold a better hand, Tx with no diamond doesn't look very good after all that action when the flush card hits.
2.) We should be able to fold to a c/r, although I admit it's close - there's definitely an argument here for checking behind and calling the river.
3.) We can bet again on the river if we improve.

If called on the turn we should definitely check behind on the river unimproved, we're too often beaten or not getting called.

TomBrooks · #12 10-24-2005, 01:10 PM

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I'm pushing way too hard here on the flop correct?

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Yes, and on the turn and river also.

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you're checking the turn and folding the river UI?

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Hi tao,

Maybe I'd call the river to look up this unknown. However, on the flop...

- I would have assumed after being bet into on the flop after raising preflop that I am often behind to top pair or better. I would also consider the possibility that Villian might semi-bluff bet into me with a straight or flush draw so I might raise; but when three-bet, I'm going to swing towards believing he has a better made hand.

- I would have figured I probably couldn't get Villian to fold, so I'm not raising the flop for semi-bluff purposes.

- There is no one else in the hand to try to knock out.

- There is no value in a flop raise against only one opponent even if all ten of our set and straight outs are good. Odds of improving by the river would be about 1.3:1. We need two callers to get value.

- Our outs are tainted. We might be drawing dead to our two nine outs already. Any diamond could negate our straight outs. And if we make a straight we might be chopping.

Therefore, my play on the flop is to just call, or raise and just call the three bet. Hand would play differently after that.

deception5 · #13 10-24-2005, 01:45 PM

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I would have assumed after being bet into on the flop after raising preflop that I am often behind to top pair or better.

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Consider that a bluff would have to work rarely and that this is a lousy board for you if you raised with AK/AQ/KQ preflop and I think it's an easy flop raise.

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I would also consider the possibility that Villian might semi-bluff bet into me with a straight or flush draw so I might raise; but when three-bet, I'm going to swing towards believing he has a better made hand.

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All he needs to 3-bet is to think that you might raise the flop with overcards and a 3-bet is viable with bottom pair here. If he has a reasonable draw, his equity is likely close to even on the flop so he can afford to put in an extra bet there because it may greatly increase his folding equity on the turn. Finally consider the leverage of a flop cap.

lautzutao · #14 10-24-2005, 01:48 PM

Again, if you take the free card and the river is UI are you calling here or folding?

deception5 · #15 10-24-2005, 02:03 PM

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Again, if you take the free card and the river is UI are you calling here or folding?

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If you take a free card you have to call the inevitable river bet.

POKhER · #16 10-24-2005, 02:09 PM

i dont cap the flop, and i check behind on river.
The way you played it, I'd check behind on river.

I dont see what you beat that 3bets you, No read so hard to say.

@bsolute_luck · #17 10-24-2005, 02:50 PM

if you look at mr. wookie's avatar: THAT'S what the kittens did when they saw that flop cap- you scared it into a frickin' wall.

i don't even raise that flop. i simply call down. sure i could be beat, but i have the BDFD and gutshot on the straight, then the flush draw improves on the turn. and the river: meh it's one bet. win max, lose min against an unknown donkbettor.