Missing value bets?

[Billy LTL]

Frankly, my opponents are just too good to use this play too often.

I believe many of us here at times face opponents who are not exactly easy.

Try something new...induce a bluff, whatever

Perhaps my check on the river could be considered as inducing a bluff, if it was intentional. But only a moron button would be induced in this case, so alas, it was not an inducement attempt.

The "try something new, induce a bluff" is a touch condescending, no?

[Jimbo]

Billy I suggested folding A/J off due to your game description as "Fairly tight, semi-aggressive game." I suppose I read too much into the game conditions, but you still missed a good value bet! [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

[elysium]

hi billy
in this situation, checking it down is always correct. you're not leading even though it looks like it. this is why i don't like the flop cap.

in this situation, it's always better to call. youre getting more money into the pot, but is that what you want to do? i don't think so. your raise opens a can of worms the fish will go crazy for, and allows the SB to take control of the table. if he wants to see the river cheaply he simply reraises and checks the turn. now the button will not raise, and if he does youre beat and the SB folds unless he has the button beat, and reraises the button. but he doesn't do that.

instead he bets! now you know youre beat. the SB will call with his K hi flush, and the button can only hope the board pairs. you should fold on the turn. and that's why i don't like the flop cap, because of this here turn.

on the flop you have made a decision to see the river, and that's fine, but you must stick to the game plan. you must call therefore; or, on the flop you represent a powerhouse by putting in 3 extra bets. and that's fine also. but, when the SB says,"let's do it again! that was great!" by charging out of the turn gate like that, my friend, you can fold. this one is over. a call on the flop by you looks more dangerous than the fast action given this opponent. he wanted you to cap because he's looking for the A. when he bets out, he wants to know if you have it. your raise says your ATs beats his KQs. he is in disbelief. and that's a problem here too. he knows you have ATs, but there is just enough doubt to see the river, if not very reasonable doubt. button hesitates because he's trying to figure out if you have a bigger set and not the A hi flush.

this happened because you lost focus of the game plan. you capped the flop, great! but when the SB comes flying out, you must read that as the A hi or the more likely search for the A hi. the SB could also be searching the button for it too. two calls, and he would have fired again on the river. what did he have? KK? i didn't see that.

when youre beaten billy, and you know youre beaten, fold unless you have 5 outs and are getting correct odds. my read was a little off, he's searching for the A hi though. his read's a little off. and don't give me any of this 5 out bull. you played well on the flop, but you should fold on the turn every time billy. very wreckless here. and that button had your other A.; you have exactly 3 outs. the button had what, AQo. but to give you an idea, you have 3 outs at best with a 50/50 chance of drawing dead. that's like drawing to a single out.

[DiamondDave]

I need to make sure I'm not making them! [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]

[bunky9590]

Precisely why I like mucking the AJo in EP/MP any way. Real bad shape against KK and AQo! I think a little aggressive with the flop play with the three heart flop. (just my opinion)

[Billy LTL]

I suppose I read too much into the game conditions

The game description was accurate, and I doubt you misread it. I think the choice of folding or raising was probably close. My initial plan, such as it was, was to get heads-up with utg limper.

[MD_]

A value bet is a bet which figures to be a favorite WHEN CALLED. I.e. You're betting because you anticipate the opponent calling with a worse hand and paying you off. Note that it's ok to lose this bet nearly half the time and still make a profit on the bet. Most players don't value bet enough on the end (I think you're one of them).

-MD

[Billy LTL]

this is why i don't like the flop cap

Elsium - I'm starting to hate the whole hand.

Here's my thinking. I flop top pair but there are three hearts on board. Yes, maybe I'm chasing a bigger pair and if so perhaps I should have folded. (Keep in mind though that the pot is a decent size already and there is a cold-caller involved). If I am to continue, hoping to hit one of my five outs it's imperative I at least try to force out the button who almost certainly is on a flush draw. The only way to do that is by raising. If he has a heart I've only got three outs so the choice on the flop and beyond, for me, is too either fold or raise.

Also, I wasn't certain the sb had me until he bet out on the turn. I think my raise was good there because 1) he cannot be certain I don't have a hand like AhKx, or even AhAx, unless he has it. His failure to reraise told me he didn't. 2) It's highly unlikely he'll bet into me on the river. 3)There's still a slight chance the button will fold.

the button had what, AQo

I suspect you're right but I think the A was a heart, which makes makes my failure to bet on the river even more of a tragedy. Thanks for your analysis.


Billy

[Billy LTL]

Precisely why I like mucking the AJo in EP/MP any way

Make no mistake. Against some utg limpers I would do just that. Against those who are very loose with their open-limps I raise.

I had no opinion of this particular utg. Flip a coin - heads I raise.

[PokerBabe(aka)]

Hi Dave. Since the list is not mine but my coaches, I would prefer not to list them here. I can tell you that this topic will be addressed at the WPPC (World Poker Player's conference) at the Orleans in Vegas on July 11th. Until that discussion is "public", I think it's best to keep mum. LGPG, Babe [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]