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#12
10-21-2005, 05:12 PM
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Re: KQs from my video 3/6
[ QUOTE ]
What are the chances that villian folds? And how often do we need him to fold? [/ QUOTE ] Ordinarily, against 99% of all players who take this line with any 2 cards the chance of a fold is pretty much 0. Even some maniac who took this line with TJ will call to try to hit a pair given the size of this pot. I cannot fathom what kind of hand the villain could have played this way to then check-fold on the turn. 
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#13
10-21-2005, 05:22 PM
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Re: KQs from my video 3/6
If the SB really had a 7 (which is unlikely since he 3-balled you), he would wait till the river before letting you know. His check-raise is a scare tactic to try to represent either a 7 or an overpair.
Given the smaple size of the SB's hands, the only thing you can determine from that data is that he isnt loosepassive. That is all.
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#16
10-21-2005, 05:53 PM
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Re: KQs from my video 3/6
[ QUOTE ]
If the SB really had a 7 (which is unlikely since he 3-balled you), he would wait till the river before letting you know. His check-raise is a scare tactic to try to represent either a 7 or an overpair. [/ QUOTE ] Does this mean u check or bet? Sounds like a bet
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#17
10-21-2005, 06:22 PM
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Re: KQs from my video 3/6
[ QUOTE ]
What are the chances that villian folds? And how often do we need him to fold? [/ QUOTE ] I think the chances are very slim to be honest. He either has a strong ace and is going to showdown regardless, or he's setting you up for another CR on the turn
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#18
10-21-2005, 06:24 PM
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Re: KQs from my video 3/6
[ QUOTE ]
Although I think your play is interesting...kind of FPS for 3/6 though. [/ QUOTE ] maybe im misunderstanding something. i know SB is a total donkey, and i know i have a strong high card on a weak board, and i have a flush draw to go along with it. bet for value. not fps.
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#19
10-21-2005, 06:28 PM
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Re: KQs from my video 3/6
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Although I think your play is interesting...kind of FPS for 3/6 though. [/ QUOTE ] maybe im misunderstanding something. i know SB is a total donkey, and i know i have a strong high card on a weak board, and i have a flush draw to go along with it. bet for value. not fps. [/ QUOTE ] we don't know if this guy is a total donk. He's played 17 hands and has played half of them. He very well could be on a heater and be holding good hands. OP didn't mention any showdown hands to give us an idea of what he has. All we really know is that this guy isn't some passive player. I really don't think that there is much value in a bet here. We have 15 possible outs to hit on the river, we can improve in many different ways. taking a free card really makes the most sense
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#20
10-21-2005, 07:16 PM
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Re: KQs from my video 3/6
[ QUOTE ]
bet for value. not fps. [/ QUOTE ] He's not checking to fold, agreed? So he's checking either to check/raise or to get to showdown. There's also a chance he's hoping to get a free card. If he c/r, we've wasted our bet. If he's getting to showdown, he has a hand he doesn't want to get pushed off of, which is A-high, PP, maaaaaaybe K-high. In both of those situations, we're largely [censored]. The only time a bet is good is if either he's trying to get to showdown with K-high or he's on a draw. I don't think checking behind is close to betting at all.
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