$22: Card dead until..

[flyingmoose]

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When do the blinds go up? What do you think the odds are of grabbing some first-in viggorish at this table?

In my experience, when I'm shortstacked and the table is still close to full, I need to show down a hand to have a chance. Given the size of your table and the likelihood you'll be T150 shorter before you get a chance to steal, I like a push here.

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WTF are you talking about? At the moment, hero is 7 hands away from posting again. I'm not suggesting folding or pushing is better, I just don't follow your logic.

For argument's sake, let's say blinds went up next hand. Next hand hero is in the CO. You think he needs to battle here now because he will be t150 shorter before he gets a chance to steal?

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Yes, the scenario you posted is one in which he'll have a nice chance to steal. Suppose they go up in 6 hands?

[tigerite]

Then he still has 6 hands to pick up a hand to be first in with.

The push isn't terrible if you really think he's loose enough to be raising more than top ~15%.

[SammyKid11]

Grunch.

Did villain raise with those hands, or just donk-call with them? If you think villain's capable of raising with those hands, then this is clearly a +EV push. If a raise from our villain indicates what a typical 3xBB raise means, then this is a pretty easy fold, IMO (say about half the time you're up against two overcards and half the time you're up against two overPAIRS...you really don't want that). If you're in the dark about the range of hands villain is open-raising from CO+2, I'd fold it and pick a better spot.

Edit: I do believe that with a villain who's shown you 96o in ANY capacity other than the blinds, you have absolutely no FE whatsoever here.

[Insty]

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When do the blinds go up?

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Blinds go up next hand.

[flyingmoose]

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Then he still has 6 hands to pick up a hand to be first in with.

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Either I'm only talking to people who play way above the 22s or the point is moot. I'm willing to accept either way.

In case it's a problem of me being unclear more than a problem of me being wrong, I'll try to clarify: I have always had trouble finding spots to open pots at a near-full table. Moreso when the blinds are small. I agree with the consensus of the forum that races are bad, but this specific hand is a spot where I would love a 50% chance to double up. I've just never (in 1500 SnGs) had any luck trying to steal my way back to contention in this type of situation.

[Scuba Chuck]

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If you think villain's capable of raising with those hands, then this is clearly a +EV push.

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FWIW, I don't think any of us are arguing against whether this is a +cEV and perhaps a +$EV push. The real discussion, IMO, is whether there is a better +EV situation in the near future.

If you don't think there's an opportunity in the near term (say before your BB) to enter the pot first, with a decent hand (like KJo or better), then yeah this is the right time.

I get the sense from OP, that if UTG isn't active, then this donkey is. FWIW, here's a great example where aggression in poker is rewarded on a tight table.

[SammyKid11]

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When do the blinds go up?

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Blinds go up next hand.

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Considering this and the good points in the two posts above, let me revise what I said earlier. POOOOSSSHHHH!!!!