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#12
10-20-2005, 12:14 AM
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Re: Somewhat Less Interesting Hand #1
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hero raises to $14 [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I think you gotta call this... he could have the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or a set. 
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#13
10-20-2005, 12:24 AM
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Re: Somewhat Less Interesting Hand #1
[ QUOTE ]
So he either has the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] alone, a higher made flush, or air. The first looks most probable to me (would he push here against a LAG who's been pushing the table around with the nut or second-nut made flush, or give you a chance to bluff some more?). But even if he just has the flush draw, you're only roughly 70% to win. And you're only getting roughly 1.3:1 on your money here. So unless you think Prob(air) + Prob(draw)*0.7 > 45% or so here, I'd fold. Edit: of course, by air I just mean any hand w/o a diamond. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with all of this. I think it's a close fold.
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#14
10-20-2005, 01:05 AM
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Re: Somewhat Less Interesting Hand #1
As I think this is hand is somewhat less interesting, I'll go ahead and post thoughts first, then results, then more thoughts.
When villain pushes, I started crying a bit on the inside. No way I can fold, really, but I had just been flushed over flushed a few hours before, and this was towards the end of the nasty downswing. I type in the chatbox "I have a flush... not the nuts... don't think I can fold... tell me if I lose after I call." I like doing this cuz that way at least the bastard feels uncomfortable if he was semibluffing me like a jackass... So I call. Turn 5, river 6, I feel not so goot, the money is flowing the other way for a reason. Villain has TT. More thoughts. I need to win this hand pretty often to make a call +EV. Villain's range is definitely hard to figure out, because this table has been pretty dormant besides me betting a lot and this one other guy who was donating money to me in the form of folding a lot. I think it's definitely possible villain has the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] here, a set is possible, 56 is possible but this seems really agressive. I think with the nuts or K high flush villain will probably checkraise the turn, but at the same time he might view me as crazy enough to call with something like TJ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. So yeah. That was the end of my NL400 pilgramage.
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#15
10-20-2005, 01:10 AM
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Re: Somewhat Less Interesting Hand #1
That sucks, Xorbie. Anyway, in my opinion this guy is not on pure air here ever. He either has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or a set, and you're way ahead of those holdings. The call was good, the result just sucked.
good luck
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#16
10-20-2005, 01:10 AM
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Re: Somewhat Less Interesting Hand #1
Personally, this would not be a hand that I play UTG and if you must then try to limp in. On the flop you set yourself up to be trapped with anybody who has a higher flush and your ONLY out is if you land the 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (46:1 odds with two attempts) and get your straight flush.
It is not uncommon for someone UTG to check the flop when all three cards are suited and this may have been the better strategy to build up the pot, assuming nobody else is on a flush draw. But the villian's ALL-IN reraise indicates he probably has the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I do not think he has the 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], otherwise he would just call your bet and hope that another [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] lands to allow him to entice you to continue betting on the turn/river while he holds the nuts. Regards, Steve
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#17
10-20-2005, 02:12 AM
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Re: Somewhat Less Interesting Hand #1
You play LAG to set yourself up in situations like this. This is a definite call. Given the action it seems more like he is defending against the diamonds with a set here.
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#18
10-20-2005, 02:38 AM
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Re: Somewhat Less Interesting Hand #1
[ QUOTE ]
You play LAG to set yourself up in situations like this. This is a definite call. Given the action it seems more like he is defending against the diamonds with a set here. [/ QUOTE ] Seems strange to me that he would massively overbet with a set like that. He can't think you'd call with anything other than a made flush or possibly the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. He's probably a slight to moderate dog to hero's calling hand range, so why not just raise to say 170? Obviously I'm wrong but villain's play seems strange.
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#19
10-20-2005, 02:47 AM
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Re: Somewhat Less Interesting Hand #1
[ QUOTE ]
When I'm the maniac, people with the higher flush in this spot just let me keep betting. Anyway, there's no way you can fold here. [/ QUOTE ] Plus, your LAG play has given him additional reason to try and push you off with a draw.
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#20
10-20-2005, 05:08 AM
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Re: Somewhat Less Interesting Hand #1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] When I'm the maniac, people with the higher flush in this spot just let me keep betting. Anyway, there's no way you can fold here. [/ QUOTE ] Plus, your LAG play has given him additional reason to try and push you off with a draw. [/ QUOTE ] this is the school of thought i generally subscribe to. although, i warn u i was shown three over flushes today in similar situation/cirumstances
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