Folding AA. Can someone do an EV analysis?

[bigfishead]

I would guess you have made a few deals at the final table if you've made them before. Why would I say that?

You are basically assured of 4th playing this hand. No absolutely but big enuf to put good money on the prop bet for it.

But getting 4 way action that could put me in a very decent chip lead in a shorthanded (5) table when I know the first all-in is desparate, and the others are drawing to beat me. I go all in and go for a tournament win.

I don't know what overall finish expectation is but I would
say it makes a HUGE + to where you stand now. I mean HUGE +ev to your cash at the end of tournament.

If it was I had 60k, chip leader had 100k 2 low stacks had 10 k between them and went all-in against chip leaders all-in raise then ok muck and if I expect I can outplay chip leader later. I risk little there gain 1 place for sure maybe 2(huge difference in money) etc. More pluses for the situation here. also a closer call.

But I believe wehn u can Quadruple up when u have the best of it. and the win is worth 40 times what I get now if I bust out this hand, vs the chance of blinding out to only 50% more roughly and my hand expects to win 60% of the time, how can I possibly lay it down.

W/o knowing what others had if you had 10 10, JJ, AK etc then thats another story.

Take the best of it and go for a win. Don't make no deals.

Regards,
Larry

[JayKon]

Despite the results and all of the comments to play the hand, I still think this was a good laydown. Frankly, AA doesn't stand up all that well in multi-way pots. To call is to gamble. Though I must admint the EV calculation from the simulator is most compelling to call.

[bigfishead]

Based on the position it gives you the 50+% times you win and gain all the momentum. The problem with going by just the numbers alone is you forget about what it does to the other players too. When you crush a couple and hurt a couple you will take over and win more.

Also the OVERLAY is the cash for first place and 2nd place.

give me a 50% + advantage to win 40 times my money. With a an almost guarantee to increase my $$ anyways by knocking out a shrtstack even when I get knocked out. No problem.

The Sim doesnt know physcology. That's why the sim says call.

[ALL1N]

Jaykon, AA holds up better than 55% in this situation. Are you insane? That is huge in a 4-way allin.

The short stack has about 10% chance to win, and if he doesn't win, he's out before you.

In terms of the EV for tournament payout, this is hugely positive.

ALL1N

[curtains]

I think fossilman hit it on the head. You must call, you'll have a great chance of being chip leader and actually winning the event, and the ONLY way you can not come in 5th place is if UTG wins the pot.

[JayKon]

ALLIN writes: Are you insane? That is huge in a 4-way allin.

While my mental state is sometimes questionable [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img] , I've been rethinking the call/fold in light of the thread. It seems clear that calling w/ AA pre-flop would have been the better play.

However, what I really liked were the thoughts the original poster had before he laid the hand down. It was not weak-tight, he was considering the gap and his final position in the payouts. Besides, as any decent LLHE player knows, AA isn't that good multi-way.

The inability to lay down a big hand in tournaments is a huge problem for most people - myself included. As I originally said, I don't think I would have folded - not because of the analysis presented here, but because of the shot it would give me at 1st (basic greed). Also, based on the (very valuable) information from the group members, I now think the lay down was only marginally bad, not the horrible play you're suggesting.

Jay

[ALL1N]

Well at least we now agree on that calling is better, although differing on magnitudes!

One other thing you said got me interested though: "Besides, as any decent LLHE player knows, AA isn't that good multi-way."

A lot has been said about how AA shouldn't be slowplayed preflop (I assume we are talking limit here). However, raising with your AA is to build the pot, not to limit players. It is desirable that a playing calls your raise with J5o.

The optimal situation for AA would be 10 players capping at 4 bets each preflop (assuming random hands). While you will win the pot much less, the size of the pot more than accounts for this.

AA is the best multiway hand.

ALL1N

[JayKon]

First of all, I changed my postion because of the analysis done in the entire thread, I'm not really agreeing with any single person. Second, AA doesn't play that well multi-way because the pot-odds are there for drawing hands that AA is a dog to if there are several. I beleive that Slanskey even says that the reason to raise pre-folp with big pocket pairs is to narrow the field.

Jay