Please dissect this drawing hand - Page 2

shant · #11 10-16-2005, 04:32 PM

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Count me in among those liking the river. You should get two overcalls by calling, but if you raise, the two guys you definitely have beaten will fold, and if CO made the nut flush, you'll get 3-bet and have to call it.

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I don't get it, you guys are ignoring the guy that checkraised the turn? What does he have and why do you assume he makes a laydown?

Borodog · #12 10-16-2005, 04:35 PM

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Count me in among those liking the river. You should get two overcalls by calling, but if you raise, the two guys you definitely have beaten will fold, and if CO made the nut flush, you'll get 3-bet and have to call it.

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I don't get it, you guys are ignoring the guy that checkraised the turn? What does he have

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A straight almost certainly.

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and why do you assume he makes a laydown?

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Because it's 2 cold and it's bloody bleeding obvious we made a flush?

private joker · #13 10-16-2005, 04:36 PM

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I don't get it, you guys are ignoring the guy that checkraised the turn? What does he have and why do you assume he makes a laydown?

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He has KQ for the nut straight. But with three spades on a board, if there's a bet and a raise before the action gets to him, then he might not call -- if he's good at hand reading, he should have put us on a spade draw.

Greg J · #14 10-16-2005, 04:39 PM

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and if CO made the nut flush, you'll get 3-bet and have to call it.

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Good point. While this might be unlikely, and I know someone is itching accuse you of "thinking weak tight," to rule this out would just be stupid.

bobbyi · #15 10-16-2005, 04:40 PM

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I don't get it, you guys are ignoring the guy that checkraised the turn? What does he have and why do you assume he makes a laydown?

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He has KQ for the nut straight. But with three spades on a board, if there's a bet and a raise before the action gets to him, then he might not call -- if he's good at hand reading, he should have put us on a spade draw.

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This is what I think as well. I think the presence of the guy with the straight (could also be a set that slowplayed the flop as some people will routinely slowplay sets until the turn and then raise regardless of what card comes) is a big reason not to raise the river. You don't have to be particularly good at hand reading to assume that a guy who calls all the way and then raises this river made a flush. In these "honest" live games, no one ever raises this river given the way it played out without a flush. Also, the fact that he checked the river seems to indicate that he is scared of the flush.

bobbyi · #16 10-16-2005, 04:43 PM

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and if CO made the nut flush, you'll get 3-bet and have to call it.

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Good point. While this might be unlikely, and I know someone is itching accuse you of "thinking weak tight," to rule this out would just be stupid.

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I completely agree. I think the possiblity of being against the nuts here is quite significant. Given the turn action, I don't think CO bets this river unless he has a flush. If he has a flush, it could very easily be the nut flush.

shant · #17 10-16-2005, 04:44 PM

I don't play live enough anymore, but when I did, no matter how obvious it was you made a flush, people do not lay down hands like straights or sets. You guys are giving too much credit to opponents reading hands. Maybe I play online too much.

Borodog · #18 10-16-2005, 04:49 PM

In a live game there are also meta-game reasons for making this call. A player who is observant enough to watch me just call with the second nuts, but is not clever enough to think about the relative values of raising vs. going for overcalls, is going to crap his pants in future hands when I raise. Hence, in addition to being the proper value play (IMHO) for this hand, smooth calling is great for our image.

Shillx · #19 10-16-2005, 06:31 PM

Shant is dead on here. The hand ranges you guys present are much too narrow and all the CO has done is bet when checked to. Time to take some yeah right juice if you think the c/r means he has a straight and CO's river bet means he has the nuts.

If you are playing this hand for overcalls then you should be playing the nuts here for overcalls as well since your hand is going to be good almost everytime. Given the read on UTG+1, you have to think there is a good chance that he will call two bets. There is also a better then average chance that the turn check/raiser will call two. Raise it up.

Brad

bobbyi · #20 10-16-2005, 06:47 PM

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The hand ranges you guys present are much too narrow and all the CO has done is bet when checked to. Time to take some yeah right juice if you think the c/r means he has a straight and CO's river bet means he has the nuts...If you are playing this hand for overcalls then you should be playing the nuts here for overcalls as well since your hand is going to be good almost everytime.

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The only thing I can conclude from your post is that you either don't play live poker or don't pay any attention when you do.