Flopped low 2-pair, pf raiser bets

Thanks for running those numbers. It's interesting because I would not have suspected that calling was anything but the third option here.

Why do you hate raising here? As I mentioned above, in retrospect I am thinking that there is a decent argument that he folds 1 in 5 times to a flop check-raise, making such a check-raise correct.

[scotty34]

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Thanks for running those numbers. It's interesting because I would not have suspected that calling was anything but the third option here.

Why do you hate raising here? As I mentioned above, in retrospect I am thinking that there is a decent argument that he folds 1 in 5 times to a flop check-raise, making such a check-raise correct.

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He folds to a flop C/R far less than 1 in 5.

[ChuckyB]

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1/2 Limit on Bet365. Villain, after 50 hands, is 15.52/13.79/6

Hero dealt 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Pre-flop: UTG calls, Hero calls, Villain raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 4 folds, UTG calls, Hero calls

Flop (9.5 SB) (4 players): Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG checked, Hero checked, Villain bet, MP3 folded, UTG folded, Hero folds -- he didn't flop a set or a draw and he can't bet 3 players out of the pot and villain probably has him slaughtered with an overpair.

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That said, if there were 25 small bets in the pot at this point...peel one off. But here, no.

[milesdyson]

let's use shill's range for simplicity.

55+,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+

55-AA is 60 hands minus 3 for the Q on board. 57 hands.
A8s-AKs is 24 hands minus 1 for A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. 23 hands.
K9s-KQs is 16 hands minus 1 for K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. 15 hands.
QTs-QJs is 8 hands minus 2 for Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. 6 hands.
JTs is the easy one. J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. 4 hands.
ATo-AKo is 48 hands minus 3 for A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. 45 hands.
KJo-KQo is 24 hands minus 3 for K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. 21 hands.

total = 57 + 23 + 15 + 6 + 4 + 45 + 21 = 171 hands.

now this guy, from what we've seen, has been playing in a way that has made his aggression factor really high. that tells me he's probably able to fold the hands he "should" fold to a flop check raise, if not fold even more often. what do i think he'd fold on this flop if we raise? my take:

A8s-AJs. 16 hands.
K9s-KJs. 12 hands.
JTs. 4 hands.
ATo-AJo. 24 hands.
KJo. 12 hands.

total there = 16 + 12 + 4 + 24 + 12 = 68 hands.

one fifth of his hand range is 0.2*171, or 34 hands. so we could discount this range by 50% and he would STILL fold 1/5 of the time.

now in my opinion, this guy will find folds here with more hands than i've put in my range. for instance, i omitted any pocket pairs in his folding range. i think he would fold middle pair some % of the time here.

Grunching...

Fold the flop, raising would have been reckless with a Q on the board.

Nice post. You've articulated with very good detail the concept that may have been stirring around in my mind.

Because the board paired, there was a much greater chance the flop did not hit his hand. I think that's reflected in the number of hands you identified that beats Villain and/or makes him feel weak enough to fold. This is exacerbated, I think, by the fact that the flop also contained two low cards (4s) (unlikely he had a 4 in his hand, given his preflop raise).

I'm persuaded now that Villain, given his aggression, has Q, 4, or pocket pairs well less than 80% of the time. Whether he will fold often enough to warrant the check-raise strategy, I'm not as confident. And he would need to fold to the flop check-raise because if he doesn't, I'm getting out of the hand. My reasoning is that at that point I do think he has Q, pocket pair, or 4.

I know another option is to check-raise and then call down, but I'm not sure I see why that is a better option than simply taking one shot at winning on the flop via a check-raise and then getting out once your "question is answered" by the Villain (question being, "Do you have Q, 4 or pocket pair?")

[Shillx]

Why is everyone caught up in raising? Here are my thoughts...

1) He isn't folding much if anything on this board. Any pair is showing down as is any ace. The only hands he might toss in on the turn are things like JTs.

2) Our pot equity here sucks (maybe around 33%). We have exactly zero fold equity on the check/raise and minimal fold equity on a turn bet.

3) We will oftentimes get 3-bet by a worse hand and that makes things very tough for us. There is just too great of a chance for us to be FOS on this board when we check/raise an unprotected pot. SOP here would be to value 3-bet (or raise turn) with hands like AK/AJ (let alone any bigger pair).

4) The guy looks to be aggressive and will hopefully keep betting no matter what he has. When a thinking player calls on a Q44r board it should set off alarms (either that they have something or are setting up a bluff later in the hand), but most people will keep hammering away with big unpaired cards. I don't expect AK to slow down here.

[Fryguy]

I totally agree, when I saw this hand, I definetely saw it as a raise or fold situation. One of a few things happens here if we raise:

1. He folds right there, good for us
2. He checks the turn to us, in which case we bet and fold to a raise.
3. We get either 3-bet or stop-n-go'd, in which case we fold (optionally call a flop 3-bet and fold turn ui)

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i'd raise this flop and bet the turn. he raises a bunch preflop and ace high hands look good on this flop, so it wouldn't surprise me at all that he'd bet here 4-handed AK/AJ/ATs/KJs/KTs. do you really think he'd not bet unimproved on the flop?

the great thing too is he may wind up folding 88-JJ either to the flop raise or to the turn bet. i can't see why everyone is saying this is an auto-fold.

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[lautzutao]

Is it always correct to call/raise a low PP on a paired board HU? If there had been a call would this change our play?

How tight a range do we need to define the PFR for calling to be -EV(if ever) HU?

What range of hands would we need to put villian on to consider a raise(in your opinion) HU?

[emitch]

Grunching

I would probably fold this preflop. A few months ago I would have called this too, but I am quickly learning that unless the table is very loose and very passive, you will get raised too often in this position to be making this call. You see that when you got a raise in the next few seats, not many came along. This is bad for your set value.

Without a read, i fold. If you have a good read and this player is known to always bet missed overcards and will slow down under agression and then you could pop it now and see what happens (betting for information which is usually bad, but with the right read?). Also this pot is only going to be ~5BB if you call and is probably not worth the next two you are going to have to pay. You missed your set, fold and move on.

mitch