What's the correct decision (tournament strategy on the bubble)?

[Nicholasp27]

sb is likely out here

utg raised showing strength...sb had to call as he had no chips left...most likely u are folding into 3rd here, which is fine as QT is NOT a good hand, especially in a raised pot

i'm not taking a 55-60% chance of ending my tourney here...i'll take my chances with a worse hand than qt when i'm first in the pot and have FE than pushing into an unraised pot with qt

[Nicholasp27]

oh wow

i just realized that blinds were 800!

that changes everything

i definitely call here then

can't believe i missed that

[Rick Diesel]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling anything here with the exception of AA and maybe KK would be terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding any two cards here would be terrible. Since you have more chips than the small blind, the only way you come in 4th is if the SB wins the hand, and UTG finishes with the second best hand. Getting 3.5 to 1 and actually having a chance to win the tourney if you win this hand makes going all-in here clearly the correct play, regardless of the cards that you hold.

[Nicholasp27]

yeah, now that i see the blinds are 800(!), he has to do it with any 2 here


the bigger issue for OP is how did he get in this situation?...if u got there by folding because there was a shorter stack than you, then you may be playing too tight on the bubble...unless you got an open-push called and beat earlier on the bubble, u shouldn't have gotten down to this few chips...when u have <5bbs u need to be pushing first in pot with a wide range of hands

[pooh74]

i just realized that blinds were 800!

I wonder if any of the other naysayers noticed this...

Calling would be correct with even a worse hand IMO.

[Rick Diesel]

Wow, there have been a lot of incorrect answers here. Someone please mathematically prove to me how it could possible be good to fold QT here. Actually, please explain how it would be good to fold any two cards here. Do people not realize that if hero and SB both get eliminated on this hand, then hero finishes third? You are getting 3.5-1 with your stack as big as the BB if you fold. Folding would be ridiculous.

[ChrisW]

It is truly amazing how many posters give a quick answer (usually wrong) to a question such as this one without supplying any analysis. I'm referring here to the first few posters who said "obvious fold!" This problem has two parts, one poker and one math:

1) The poker problem: what are UTG's raising standards here?

The key is to realize that UTG is committing a signifigant portion of his chips with the big-stacked button yet to act. In addition, he expects to be called by the SB 100% of the time. Thus, UTG will have some sort of genuine hand. For simulation purposes, I assumed 55+, any ace, any two broadways, or any two suited cards nine or higher. This could be off, but I doubt it is off by a lot.

2) Now, the math problem. Pokerstove thinks that if you call, you win 31.5%, UTG wins 41.5%, and the SB's random hand wins 27%. When the SB wins, you beat UTG 40%.

So, 41.5% of the time you are third, total payout 2X (with X being the buyin exclusive of the rake). 31.5% of the time, you are three-handed with 30% of the chips, so your expected return should be between 3X and 3.3X. Let's call it 3.1X. 16% of the time you are out 4th. 11% of the time you have 2400 chips 4-handed. Let's call your equity there 2X (which seems about right).

Total equity in calling = .415(2x) + .315(3.1X) + .11(2X) = 2X

If you fold, UTG wins the pot about 62% of the time. You are at least third, but you have only t827 with half of it to be posted on the next hand. I think your equity here is about 2.2X (just a touch more than the 2X that you've locked up for third). 38% of the time, UTG triples up to 1430. You remain with 827, 450 of which is in the pot on the next deal. To figure out your equity here, let's assume that everyone at the table plays the pot with you since you have a forced call all-in on any two. So, 75% of the time, you finish 4th. The other 25% of the time, you quadruple up to 3300 chips. Let's be charitable and assume that the short stack goes out on the next hand to one of your opponents. So, you have 25% of the chips three-handed for equity of about 3X.

So, total equity in folding = .62(2.2X) + .25(.38)(3X) = 1.65X

Thus, the hand is a call, and it's not close, so altering any of the assumptions somewhat would not affect the outcome.

[Nicholasp27]

actually, calling would be correct with any2 in this situation due to the blinds

order of importance:

blinds
stack sizes
position
villians' calling/pushing ranges (includes if u are 1st in)
your cards

in this hand, blinds/stack sizes make 3-5 irrelevant

[JoshNjuice]

Wow. I hadn't looked at this post in a few days, but I'm glad I revisited it.

ChrisW, great analysis. I need to read it a few more times, but it seems solid on my first read-through. Thanks for taking the time to crunch the numbers.

Nicholasp, as I said in the OP, I'm in this situation because this is a turbo and we've all been moving chips around the table for a while. I've been pretty card dead and haven't wanted to call off my chips with 94o. I'm still in this one because I've been stealing the blinds for a while. I bubble in these tourneys only ~4% of the time. I'm not in this situation often.

I think one thing to remember here is that I said my goal is to money. I understand that I should be trying to win most of the time, but in this instance I was trying to make the money and I wasn't concerned with winning it. I was concerned with making 3rd or better.

If I'd said my goal was to win it, I never would've needed to post this. Strictly mathematically, this is a simple push. ChrisW's analysis says I finish 4th 75% of the time if I call here... so, although pushing is mathematically correct, does it give me the greatest chance to make the money? I'm not sure I've actually seen this question answered here.

If I missed it, I'm sorry. I'm interested in the decision that gets me to the money most frequently, not the decision that maximizes my tournament equity here.

Thanks for all your input so far. And thanks for any other ideas you all may have.

JoshNjuice