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#11
10-11-2005, 02:57 PM
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Re: KQ suited, Heads-up
[ QUOTE ]
No! Once you get check-raised on the flop, you are almost certainly behind at that point. Usually, players who check-raise the flop in short-handed pots have hands with which they have no intent to fold, particularly on innocuous turn cards like this one. Your fold equity on the turn is thus very, very small, and you should instead be disciplined and take the free card that you intended to buy. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly. The flop 3-bet is fine. HU, you're going to get c/red a lot when villian has a solid chunk of the flop. In fact, you're probably not going to get popped on the flop if villian has a huge hand - he'll wait until the turn. A 3-bet here represents an overpair (which is probably beating villian) and will buy a free card a large percentage of the time. [ QUOTE ] The other questionable point is clearly the river raise. It's certainly very, very thin, [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. Villian has Jx a whole lot of the time. He was in call down mode due to hero representing an overpair, but after the turn check, he's value betting his J on the river. 
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#12
10-11-2005, 03:04 PM
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Re: KQ suited, Heads-up
[ QUOTE ]
He was in call down mode due to hero representing an overpair, but after the turn check, he's value betting his J on the river. [/ QUOTE ] From what I see, it can't be a value bet. There's only value if he's sure hero has AK, and thinks he'll call with it, because Jx can't beat anything else. But even in this case, if he does in fact have Jx he might fold to the raise. So I don't think that reasoning gives the river raise nearly enough value.
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#13
10-11-2005, 03:05 PM
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Re: KQ suited, Heads-up
[ QUOTE ]
From what I see, it can't be a value bet. There's only value if he's sure hero has AK, and thinks he'll call with it, because Jx can't beat anything else. But even in this case, if he does in fact have Jx he might fold to the raise. So I don't think that reasoning gives the river raise nearly enough value. [/ QUOTE ] I think you're giving an unknown villain too much credit here.
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#14
10-11-2005, 03:11 PM
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Re: KQ suited, Heads-up
[ QUOTE ]
From what I see, it can't be a value bet. There's only value if he's sure hero has AK, and thinks he'll call with it, because Jx can't beat anything else. But even in this case, if he does in fact have Jx he might fold to the raise. So I don't think that reasoning gives the river raise nearly enough value. [/ QUOTE ] I think you underestimate how often players will reflexively value bet on the river after an opponent checks behind on the turn. Without a read I think there is a good chance villian is bet-calling with a huge range of hands that he beats.
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#15
10-11-2005, 03:15 PM
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Re: KQ suited, Heads-up
[ QUOTE ]
I think you underestimate how often players will reflexively value bet on the river after an opponent checks behind on the turn. Without a read I think there is a good chance villian is bet-calling with a huge range of hands that he beats. [/ QUOTE ] I do think that happens often, but we also have to be realistic about what he would have played UTG that he then check-raised with. If he'd limped after 3 callers I'd put him on a much wider range of hands, but in this spot the range is smaller than it could be.
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#16
10-11-2005, 03:21 PM
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Re: KQ suited, Heads-up
I like the river raise because s/he'll have Jacks alone enough to pay you off IMO. Prob KJ or AJ. I wouldnt reraise.
I'm okay with checking the turn given the prev action because s/he convinces me that KQ is behind. So, if the check is a mistake, I make it too.
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#17
10-11-2005, 03:37 PM
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Re: KQ suited, Heads-up
[ QUOTE ]
I do think that happens often, but we also have to be realistic about what he would have played UTG that he then check-raised with. If he'd limped after 3 callers I'd put him on a much wider range of hands, but in this spot the range is smaller than it could be. [/ QUOTE ] What hands that beat hero would villian have played the way he did both preflop and on the flop? QJ...and what else?
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#18
10-11-2005, 03:41 PM
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Re: KQ suited, Heads-up
[ QUOTE ]
What hands that beat hero would villian have played the way he did both preflop and on the flop? QJ...and what else? [/ QUOTE ] That's a better way of looking at it that I hadn't really done. Maybe I just went too far putting him on QJ. I don't really know what else there would be.
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#20
10-11-2005, 03:53 PM
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Re: KQ suited, Heads-up
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Maybe I just went too far putting him on QJ [/ QUOTE ] With an insignificant read, it's a mistake to put your opponent on one specific concrete hand. [/ QUOTE ] Noted. I often do this turn check behind if I've hit big, hoping that he'll bet out with a weak hand on the river so I can raise. I guess I should be more comfortable exploiting this kind of edge as well.
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