$33 - AJs level 1, flop TP + draw - Page 2

schwza · #11 10-11-2005, 11:53 AM

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he is giving you proper odds to make the call. I would call and see the river here.

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i don't want to swamp the thread with this, but you're giving justification for why calling the turn is better than folding. i'm saying folding is obviously wrong and the conversation is between raising and calling.

zambonidrivr · #12 10-11-2005, 12:09 PM

alrighty then. i like calling as this is level 1. you have a very strong drawing hand, and may be ahead; however your hand is also extremely vulnerable and this is level 1.

as with major championship golf. you can't win the major on thursday, but you sure as hell can piss it away.

tigerite · #13 10-11-2005, 12:12 PM

Definitely call here; you'd hate to see a re-raise.

otctrader · #14 10-11-2005, 12:18 PM

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Definitely call here; you'd hate to see a re-raise.

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Yeah, a raise will fold out weaker aces, mid-pairs, and give him a chance to jam monsters. The only draw you're worried about charging is an unlikely 89; if he's drawing dead to the same flush you'll get paid off regardless on the river if it hits.

schwza · #15 10-11-2005, 12:25 PM

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Definitely call here; you'd hate to see a re-raise.

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yeah, i agree with that now. my thought then was that i needed to raise to extract the maximum from weaker A's. fortunately, the poker gods rewarded my bad play.

now how much to bet?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter

Button (t770)
SB (t1015)
BB (t800)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t785)
UTG+2 (t920)
MP1 (t785)
MP2 (t775)
Hero (t770)
CO (t580)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls t15, 2 folds, Hero calls t15, CO calls t15, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t75) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 bets t40, Hero calls t40, CO folds, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: (t155) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 bets t70, Hero raises to t220, UTG+2 calls t150.

River: (t595) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, hero?

tigerite · #16 10-11-2005, 12:27 PM

Well, in my opinion you have represented having an ace afraid of the draw, so now, you should check in the hope he bluffs at the pot on the river, "representing" the flush. That card, in his eyes, has to be a scare card and I find it hard to believe after your show of strength on the turn, that he won't reckon a check is a show of weakness. Then, naturally, you shove and hope he calls.

Feck forget that, he acted first. Erm. I think you want to bet the most that he will both call, and not believe you "want a call" from, if that makes sense. Something like 2/3rds of the pot? It's read dependent really. Ideally, maybe, bet a really small amount (with respect to the pot) to make it look like it was really the card you did not want to see, and hope he comes over the top.

schwza · #17 10-11-2005, 12:29 PM

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Well, in my opinion you have represented having an ace afraid of the draw, so now, you should check in the hope he bluffs at the pot on the river, "representing" the flush. That card, in his eyes, has to be a scare card and I find it hard to believe after your show of strength on the turn, that he won't reckon a check is a show of weakness. Then, naturally, you shove and hope he calls.

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huh? i'm in position. i'm not checking any time.

tigerite · #18 10-11-2005, 12:29 PM

Yes, sorry, I just noticed that and edited my post..

otctrader · #19 10-11-2005, 12:37 PM

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River: (t595) 3 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, hero?

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He probably knows you'll check down any non-flush hand so a value bet looks suspicious. I'd shove the nuts in his face and hope he assumes you're bluffing and/or calls if he was slowplaying something strong.

#20 10-11-2005, 04:34 PM

I think there are two ways to bet this river. First, from the action and his remaining stack, I think he'll call a bet around 250 75% of the time. The question is will he call a bet of 500 more than 37.5% of the time? This comes down to reads. Against a very good or very bad player, I think overbetting/pushing is good. The former would think you would value bet with a made flush, and the latter won't be able to fold their two pair or AJ or whatever. Against a standard player, I would just bet around 200/250 which I think he will have to call (or feel like he will) because of pot odds.