Wk 6 StL @ Indy -13

[Losing all]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
120-20 final

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like the over is the easiest play then. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you're joking but looks like the under at 51 is once again the play on an Indy game this year. Indy is yet to go over yet this year and as long as they keep getting these inflated lines on the O/U, because every week has to be the week Manning finally lets loose and throws 6 TDs, I'll keep taking the under.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like you're thought process here, but not on this game. No way I touch this under.

[ QUOTE ]
Does anybody think the fact that they are on the road matters less since they will be in a dome on turf. Of course the Rams stink on grass.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Rams defense stinks on turf, grass, asphalt, dirt ...

[FishNChips]

[ QUOTE ]
Indy under has covered all 4 games so far i believe..

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not correct.

The Browns and Jags beat the spread against the Colts. I believe the Colts are 3-2 ATS this year with 5 unders coming in.

FishNChips

[ThaHero]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does anybody think the fact that they are on the road matters less since they will be in a dome on turf. Of course the Rams stink on grass.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Rams defense stinks on turf, grass, asphalt, dirt ...

[/ QUOTE ]

But their offense doesn't.

This may be wrong to say due to the man's health but I'm actually glad that Martz won't be doing the play-calling for the next 6 weeks.

[NajdorfDefense]

last year scored 17 and 33 on road turf. 1-1.
Year before lost both scored 20 and 23.
year before scored 10 at SEA and lost. 1-4 road turf.

Only 5 games, but not good for the Mouflons.

Naj

[jedinite]

Wagerline shows a suprising amount of early money on San Fran +13.5 (44% versus 56% on Indy). Not sure if this is early sharp money and the public has yet to weigh in, or if this is going to be a much more square line with the consistent public positive gambling perception on the Rams helping to balance the overwhelming public sway on Indy. Bodog currently has +13.5 -105 versus -13.5 -115... I think this line moves to +14 before the week's over, assuming the usual mass of money comes in on the Colts.

It is worthwhile to note that the 75% of the early money in this game is on the over.

All that being said, I like St. Louis here. Martz is out, which might actually improve the team's chances assuming the remaining coaching staff doesn't make many of the same ridiculous coaching errors (i.e. they were Martz errors, not coaching staff errors). Public perception still rides Indy - i've talked to a couple of my regulars this week who were deriding me for fading Indy this week, who were quick to judge that San Fran game as Indy "dominating". I'm sorry, but take back one of the five Alex Smith turnovers and Indy doesn't cover that game - it took a ridiculous showing by a rookie to turn around the almighty power of the BSPs.

St. Louis is the first real offense the Colts have faced this year. And while the Rams have a terrible road record, that's really obscured by a larger statistic - the Rams are much better on turf than they are on grass, and a lot of their road losses are "really" losses due to grass surface versus losses because they're on the road IMO. Indy @ home means dome, turf, and the Rams being able to backdoor cover quite a bit of the time.

I'm waiting for this game to move to +14 then i'll be moving on it heavily, I think.

[jedinite]

FYI Bet On Sports already has St. Louis +14 -110. (first place I saw it).
I imagine the rest will follow suit shortly.

A couple humorous trends:

Indianapolis are 6-16-1 SU in their last 23 games after being more than 14 point favorites in the previous game.

In the game immediately after playing 49ers, the Colts are 0-5 SU.

Don't get me wrong, there are a ton of other trends against the Rams (2-8 ATS in their last ten games, for example) and others for the Colts, I just found those two humorous...

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
All that being said, I like St. Louis here. Martz is out, which might actually improve the team's chances assuming the remaining coaching staff doesn't make many of the same ridiculous coaching errors (i.e. they were Martz errors, not coaching staff errors).

[/ QUOTE ]

Martz is 53-32 lifetime, better than just about any active coach. Better than Parcells, Belicheck, etc.

Clearly he sucks.

Just because he struggles with clock mgmt, oh wait, that makes him like almost every other NFL coach, Reid, Edwards, Tice, Billick, et al.

Of course, he should try to burn less than 2 TOs in the first minute once in a while.

Naj

[jedinite]

Lifetime Martz is a great coach lifetime, i'm not trying to say otherwise.

But in the last few weeks he (or someone on his staff) has made some massive coaching errors. I'll have to go to my notes (i don't have them with me today) to see the specifics, but I believe a major one of them was running a reverse in the redzone two - three weeks ago when they'd been sucessfully pounding the ground game - trick play at a critical time which resulted in a turnover and cost them the game, flat out a coaching / playcalling error in my opinion.

I don't have all the details, but watching every Rams game the past five weeks, it was enough to make me specifically note that Martz seemed off this season and was making fundamental coaching errors. If you listen/read his postgame comments, he's specifically mentioned a lot of coaching errors and has "taken the blame" for a lot of the losses - which I know a lot of coaches will say, but here I think its accurate.

To the point, that when his illness was announced, I wondered if that wasn't somehow a factor in his recent poor decisionmaking / coaching.