Top pair runs into resistance..

[elindauer]

Unless he is raising everything he plays, you should fold preflop. Your hand is crushed by his hand range, as you discovered.

postflop, you should play passively. You don't gain anything by raising the flop, for example. Just call along and let your position work for you.

good luck.
Eric

[sean c]

If you can't fold to a 3-bet from the mouse on the river just call.

[aargh57]

grunching

I think a call on the turn is good. I think that the chance of getting checked to on the river isn't that great but you have 9 outs to improve so you definitely can't fold. He also could be overplaying something like QQ or KJ so you could still be ahead.

I think I reraise here again. The only hands you're behind are AK,KT, K5, K9, and QJ. I think you can rule out K5 because he's too tight and K9 because of the strength he showed on the flop (plus he's not that likely to open raise with K9 given he's <10% VPIP). I think he's probably got AA, but other likely hands are AK, KQ. Less likely are KJ, KT, QQ, JJ, and QJ probably in that order. Of these, only three beat you and of those only one is likely. Just given his range of hands I think that you can profitably put one more in here.

[aargh57]

Why are we giving so much credence to 60 hands? Isn't this sample size a little small?

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are we giving so much credence to 60 hands? Isn't this sample size a little small?

[/ QUOTE ]

The plays are already close, and VP$IP converges pretty fast. It's much more likely that he is actually a rock than that he's just getting bad cards. It might be premature to make a big laydown, but there is plenty of evidence to support giving this guy respect for a big hand when he raises.

-Eric

[britspin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why are we giving so much credence to 60 hands? Isn't this sample size a little small?

[/ QUOTE ]

The plays are already close, and VP$IP converges pretty fast. It's much more likely that he is actually a rock than that he's just getting bad cards. It might be premature to make a big laydown, but there is plenty of evidence to support giving this guy respect for a big hand when he raises.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

He ended up being about the same after 250 hands, so the stats were right. However, I hadn't seen a showdown from him by that point, so i wasn't totally prepared to treat him as a rock.

Turned out he had 10-10- does that knowledge about his handrange impack next time you face a raise from him- not a total rock so loosen u a little- but only a little?

[Student Caine]

Flop: Honestly, with a player this tight (I am playing on your "mouse" read) and the fact that everyone folds to you (after his raise) I don't know how bad of a move a fold is here. I probably would not fold, but I am going through some weird hyper-aggressive phase right now. Obviously if your KQ is not suited this is an easy fold here, that's why I don't think a fold is a terrible mistake (though it may be -EV?).

Flop: Barring a non-mouselike aggression factor, at this point we have to figure that we are up against one of 3 hands: AA, KK, AK. So at this point we are either drawing to two pair or drawing dead. MP1's hand distribution would break down as follows

AA = 6 combinations (~32%)
KK = 1 combinations (~5%)
AK = 12 combinations (~63%)

Against AA we have say...6 outs (2 Kings, 3 Queens, and a runner-runner straight). Does anyone discount these outs here? I If we do I think we discount it for redraws, but not to the flush - I don't see a mouse betting a flush draw here - anyone disagree?
Against AK we have 4 outs (another King does not help us).
Against KK we are drawing nearly dead - we can credit ourselves 1 out for the runner-runner straight. Does anyone think that this is too generous?

So a weighted average of our outs would be:

[(6*6)+(4*12)+(1*1)]/(6 + 12 + 1) = 4.5 outs.

So if we have 4.5 outs, that means that we need to get ~9.5:1 to make our call profitable. When we call MP1's bet we are in fact getting 6.5:1 so I don't think we have the odds that we need to make this work. If we figure that we can win 4 more SB (1 BB on the Turn and 1 BB on the River) then we are just getting our odds here to call.

A raise is an interesting move. Against a mouse it could win the pot right here, but I think it does so only if he has nothing.

Turn: Same deal as before except now we have picked up our gutshot, so we have 3 more outs (we already gave ourselves 1 for the runner-runner). So our new weighted average is:

[(6*6) + (4*12) + (4*1)]/19 = 4.6. With 4.6 outs we need 9:1 to call, so again I don't think that we are getting our odds here.

River: Well we just improved, but not in the best way possible. The good news is that he does not have KK, the bad news is that if he has AK we are about to lose 2 BB here. Honestly I think that given the fact that he is more likely to to have AA at this point than AK I probably raise this as well. Once I am 3-bet, the pot is so big I make a crying call and hope that he somehow overplayed his AA on the River (as unlikely as that is).

[Student Caine]

Oh man, I totally blew it on the hand range. Although, after I posted I was thinking how odd it was that he would 3-bet with TPTK...I would expect him to to call down more oftenafafter being raised on teh flop with TPTK.

Sorry that I missed the TT possibility in my post. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[britspin]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh man, I totally blew it on the hand range. Although, after I posted I was thinking how odd it was that he would 3-bet with TPTK...I would expect him to to call down more oftenafafter being raised on teh flop with TPTK.

Sorry that I missed the TT possibility in my post. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I missed it too. I was thinking along the same lines as you when he 3-bet- At showdown i was suprised by his hand.

I think I expected his starting hand to be stronger- perhaps JJ and up, and so was trying to fit his play into that= giving me excuses to bet the river.

[RandBriscoe]

I call pf. Call the flop. Call the turn. Raise/Call the river.