Does one ever develop an immunity to busting late in a tournament?

[Exitonly]

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4.1% FT's since august

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what is your avg. field size for this? i've been trying to figure what can be expected and i haven't played near enough to have any confidence in my numbers yet.

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avg entrants: 1002

[pfkaok]

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avg entrants: 1002

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so about 4x your share, or does the math get thrown off a lot b/c of different sized fields? i know that you play a ton of them, but how many tournies is that since august? 6-800?

also, how was your ROI over that period if you don't mind sharing? (mostly i'm just wonering if you were running good, bad, or average over that period if there's any way you could tell??)

[Exitonly]

FT% wasn't skewed too bad, most of the FT's i made were big sized fields (dont feel like going to find the exact #'s)

ROI% however was skewed cause the 'Big' buyins account for 42% of my total buyins, but only 8.5% of my total # of tournaments. (And i didnt run well in the big ones)

That said, ROI% for everything = 36%, estimated ROI w/o the 'Bigs' ~ 160%


(oh, and that's 570 tournaments, since august 11th)

[whiskeytown]

I've never gotten over it -

it's at the point where I'd rather bust the first ten minutes then drag it out for 3 hrs and bust before the money.

RB

[pfkaok]

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FT% wasn't skewed too bad, most of the FT's i made were big sized fields (dont feel like going to find the exact #'s)

ROI% however was skewed cause the 'Big' buyins account for 42% of my total buyins, but only 8.5% of my total # of tournaments. (And i didnt run well in the big ones)

That said, ROI% for everything = 36%, estimated ROI w/o the 'Bigs' ~ 160%


(oh, and that's 570 tournaments, since august 11th)

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thanks. i know the numbers are kind of pointless sometimes as there's so many different variables, and we're all different skill levels, ect... but its nice to at least see whats out there, and especially when i'm trying to decide which games/formats i want to play and try to get good at. with the variance in these things i'm sure 570 is still pretty long ways away from "long run", but i only have about 100 in my PT since i started playing them last month, so you still have me by quite a bit.

also, is the 160% normal for small/medium sized events?

all i know about true WRs for these things is from a few posts where people say 100% is doable. and from HoH where he talks about how profitable NLHE MTTs are, and also from Phil Gordons book where he says he estimates a 200% ROI for himself in the 10k buyin events (but wasn't clear if this was from his sample which couldn't be too huge, or from more objective analysis he'd done away from the table)

[Exitonly]

in micro events, i think welllllll over 100% ROI is do-able... like i'm talking 500%... i'm currently at 575%, and i've been on a downswing lately (was at 900% like 65 tournaments in)

for the mid ranges i think 200% and higher is definitely possible.

I ran kinda well for these 560 but i don't think i was playing all that great and could have ran considerably better.

I'd be interested to see TTIU's numbers if he keeps track. (or if he still posted here)

[pfkaok]

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I ran kinda well for these 560 but i don't think i was playing all that great and could have ran considerably better.

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yeah, there's so much hidded luck in these things that i do'nt know how anyone could ever really tell for sure (unless you're running REALLY REALLY amazingly good or bad).

is there any way with PT to tell at least what your Standard deviation is for say 50 or 100 tourneys?? i think this would be interesting to know, since then it would be possible to at least speculate how many MTTs you need to have any meaningful confidence intervals.

[johnnybeef]

for the most part it depends. barry g had a great way to think about it in his book when he said that if he survives with the worst of it, the rest of the tourney is essentially a freeroll. that said, if i get busted by someone that has no business being in the pot, then i tend to get furious. i think that for the most part this comes from my ultra competative nature. i tend to view mtts as competitions, and i absolutely hate losing. ring games however are completely different to me as it is gambling in the truest sense in my eyes, and win or lose, i love the action.

[Exitonly]

If someone could explain how to get the standard deviation from my nunmbers, i would add it to my spreadsheet and you could use that to analyze it and find confidence levels and whatnot.

But, i'd need someone to explain it to me.

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And for PT i duunno if it shows SD, but it does for cash games so i'd imagine it does for tournaments too.



edit: i think Excel has a Statistics thing built in to make Standard deviations easy to find, so maybe i'll play aroundn with that.

[MeanGreenTT]

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I make the FT about 80% of the time. I am trying real hard to get that last 20% consistantly.

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EEEK!!! Damn man, get off the couch and write a book...80%...JUST DAMN!