Betting into the PFR (Open-ended question)

[SlantNGo]

At first, I thought "Great flop bet", but now I'm debating whether to bet the flop, or to check.

Advantage of checking:
- MP2 bets out and both CO and SB act before us... this allows us to raise for value if they call, and just check/call it to the river if they fold (WA/WB scenario)

Advantage of betting:
- MP2 could raise, driving out gutshots. It would be best if he would raise with a worse hand, but even if he raises with a better hand (i.e. AK), driving out a gutshot may buy us an additional 3 outs (Jacks) to a better 2-pair.
- If MP2 calls, we can be quite confident that we hold the best hand. Most players will not slow play a hand like AK here, with the flop being paired.

I dunno... a read could swing me either way.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
So if betting into the preflop raiser resulted in his reraise and the hand becoming heads up, I would then plan on check/calling to showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he raises the flop and bets the turn and river, how often do you think your hand will be best?

[MrWookie47]

I used to think about betting into preflop raisers to protect my 2nd pair or whatever, but I don't think it's a good plan. You are hoping he raises a hand worse than yours, and most opponents won't do that. They call if you're ahead, and they raise if they have you whooped, at least if we don't have TPTK or better. I'm starting to check these more, evaluate the action, and typically call and reevaluate on the turn.

In the hand example you cite, I don't like the flop bet one bit. KK is NOT raising us very often, and he doesn't have AT often enough relative to the times he has AQ or AK.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
In the hand example you cite, I don't like the flop bet one bit. KK is NOT raising us very often, and he doesn't have AT often enough relative to the times he has AQ or AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that hand's WA/WB too often to bet the flop. Somebody mentioned a C/R, which is even worse...all you do is scare that AK/AQ into thinking you have a T, and he'll never fold, although KK might.

[numeri]

A very manufactured and specific example:

Preflop:
Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG has 98s/o
UTG+1 has 77
Villain has AQs/o

UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Villain raises</font><font color="#666666">, 5 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain raises</font>

========================
Equity on the flop 4-handed:

Hand 1: 63.2698 % [ 00.63 00.00 ] { AQs, AQo }
Hand 2: 18.9926 % [ 00.18 00.01 ] { JdTd }
Hand 3: 08.6941 % [ 00.08 00.01 ] { T9s, T9o }
Hand 4: 09.0434 % [ 00.09 00.00 ] { 77 }

========================
Equity if Villain raises and drives out UTG and UTG+1:

Hand 1: 74.5623 % [ 00.75 00.00 ] { AQs, AQo }
Hand 2: 25.4377 % [ 00.25 00.00 ] { JdTd }
========================

By raising, our equity increased from 19% to 25%, or an increase of ~32%.

[MrWookie47]

We paid 1 SB for an increase in equity of 7% (absolute magnitude). That 7% increase in equity is smaller than 1 SB given the pot size. In a larger pot, this is fine. However, this is -EV.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
We paid 1 SB for an increase in equity of 7% (absolute magnitude). That 7% increase in equity is smaller than 1 SB given the pot size. In a larger pot, this is fine. However, this is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point. Do you remember the example in SSH like this? The argument was similar, but maybe the pot was smaller.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
I used to think about betting into preflop raisers to protect my 2nd pair or whatever, but I don't think it's a good plan. You are hoping he raises a hand worse than yours, and most opponents won't do that. They call if you're ahead, and they raise if they have you whooped, at least if we don't have TPTK or better. I'm starting to check these more, evaluate the action, and typically call and reevaluate on the turn.

In the hand example you cite, I don't like the flop bet one bit. KK is NOT raising us very often, and he doesn't have AT often enough relative to the times he has AQ or AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

based on the original read of the villian (presumed maniac preflop) i think his hand range is large, so i'm more inclined to bet this flop.

against a tight player, i'm more inclined to check call the whole way.

[MrWookie47]

Oh? I must have missed the original hand with the original read. Aaron didn't specify, so I assumed my default. If he's a maniac, yes, bet.

[SlantNGo]

That wouldn't be the point of a C/R. I would C/R here if both call after PFR bets, for value. If both fold, then you go into WA/WB.

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, that hand's WA/WB too often to bet the flop. Somebody mentioned a C/R, which is even worse...all you do is scare that AK/AQ into thinking you have a T, and he'll never fold, although KK might.

[/ QUOTE ]