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#11
10-03-2005, 11:23 AM
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Re: 22 level 3, 55 hand
[ QUOTE ]
This is a very clear limp preflop given your stack size and UTG's stack size. [/ QUOTE ] agreed. [ QUOTE ] I am betting this flop because if it's checked to me [/ QUOTE ] i think that Ax checks to you very often here, especially a guy who likes to c/r. close to 100%. [ QUOTE ] most of the time my villians do not have an ace and will fold. Plus I have outs if I don't. [/ QUOTE ] the fact that you have outs is the reason i'd check behind. i don't want to get c/r'ed by an A (or a whiff) here. i'd rather take the free card and see if i improve, or else try to play a small pot. if he hits an overcard, so be it. [ QUOTE ] when UTG bets the river he's either trying to pick up the uncontested pot with air or he has a 2 or AAA. Thus he will not call a raise unless he beats us, so call. [/ QUOTE ] ugh. how could villain have a 2? based on the pre-flop, the only way would be a badly played 22/a2s. and if those are possible, no reason we're not seeing 33/44/a3s/a4s/a5s, all of which will pay off the river. worrying about AA is seeing monsters. villain limp-called, and has shown nothing to indicate AA. the most likely hand to pay you off is something like AT that missed two c/r's and will now pay you off. fearing 2x or AA leaves too much money on the table. hopefully you agree that AA or 2x is pretty rare. you think nothing else will pay off. so if you had 78 or some air, it's an easy push, right? 
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#12
10-03-2005, 11:31 AM
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Re: 22 level 3, 55 hand
[ QUOTE ]
most of the time my villians do not have an ace and will fold. Plus I have outs if I don't. [/ QUOTE ] the fact that you have outs is the reason i'd check behind. i don't want to get c/r'ed by an A (or a whiff) here. i'd rather take the free card and see if i improve, or else try to play a small pot. if he hits an overcard, so be it. [/ QUOTE ] This was assuming the unraised pot from the limp. However, if he has a hand like KQ, I want to bet the turn to protect my hand as well. But raising preflop puts us in such a bad spot on nearly every flop that I really don't want to even discuss this, raising preflop is simply terrible. [ QUOTE ] when UTG bets the river he's either trying to pick up the uncontested pot with air or he has a 2 or AAA. Thus he will not call a raise unless he beats us, so call. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] the most likely hand to pay you off is something like AT that missed two c/r's and will now pay you off. fearing 2x or AA leaves too much money on the table. [/ QUOTE ] AT nearly always bets the turn after missing a flop c/r. [ QUOTE ] hopefully you agree that AA or 2x is pretty rare. you think nothing else will pay off. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is clearly the most likely scenario. I think villians most likely hand is KQ or KJ. [ QUOTE ] so if you had 78 or some air, it's an easy push, right? [/ QUOTE ] If I had 78 or some air, I bet the turn nearly always if I didn't bet the flop.
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#13
10-03-2005, 12:03 PM
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Re: 22 level 3, 55 hand
Limp PF.
Not sure about a push on the river. if dude had been slowplaying a big Ace, AK, or AQ maybe then you get a lot of value by pushing. 22 is really the only possible PF deuce hand though even it is unlikely, so though my first instinct was to just call the river it looks like you lose value by not pushing. So push.
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