Defending BB with low pocket pair simple question

[crunchy1]

Good analysis. However...

-I think that you slightly under estimate the # of bets a good player will win with a set vs. TPTK.

-I think you way under estimate the number of bets that a good player will win unimproved (i.e. you are suggesting that we're always losing 1SB in that situation - if you play decent and have good reads I don't think it's that difficult to make that a +EV situation).

-Some of the other calculations I think can swing a little more favorably towards Hero (assuming he plays better post-flop than EP Villian)

-MOST IMPORTANTLY - all of your extrapolated calculations are done in SBs but your summary calculation shows that we're losing .626BB / 100. This should really be .626SB / 100 (or .313BB / 100).

Swing a couple of your calculations my way and I'm easily turning what you show as a .313BB/100 loser into a +EV play.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
How is 66 really any different from 22 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

see i thought about this as well. my initial post was "what's the difference between pocket pairs? a pair is a pair."

i really think the answer is you have to also play for something other than a set and if you get your set, how strong is it to favor against redraws.

Am i on track here?
You are getting 3.5:1 immediately (the SB, the raise and your BB) but are only 8:1 to hit your set. I play any PP if I think the following situation could occur if I hit a set. You will get another bet on the flop, 2 big bets on the turn after you raise and they call, and i more big bet as a crying call on the river. thats 10.5:1 on your initial call, and nothing to loose if you miss. This type of action is pretty easy coming from an EP raiser with a bigger PP or high cards that hit a pair or two.
Q.
Feedback very welcome.

[winky51]

Your right I meant SB per 100. So used to posting BB per 100.

But this is making the assumptiont of bad players and what the original poster said "no set no bet"

yes if your a good players I am sure a flop of 852 rainbow with 66 under is something you can make profitable since 3/4 of the time said PF raiser will miss.

But then again how profitable is this coin flip?

check raise flop, bet turn, check/call river?
What if the opponent hits?

He misses: 3 SB (PF) + 2 SB (FL) + 2 SB (TU) + 0 SB (RI)= 4 SB
This assumes he has 2 high and misses the flop completely but still is a numbskull to call you down with ace high.

He hits the turn or river: 3 SB (PF) + 2 SB (FL) + 2 SB (TU) then fold to the raise = -4 SB (turn hit)

River hit you lose 2 SB more if he hits because he will bet. Then there will be times he bluffs on the river when the ace hits after you check. Are you calling it then? If you are then you are calling all aces on the river.

There is a reason why you need 2 callers to make small pairs profitable in this situation PF raiser, cold caller, and you in the BB.

believe me I really hope there is a simple way and +EV way to play this hand. I would love to call some EP dude with a small-med pair and have +EV. If I could read if he missed or not thats easy. Online you can't really read people

[winky51]

20/10/2?

Im more like 18/14/2.3

I ain't no mathemitician but I would really love to see all possible outcomes to determine if its possible to defend the BB with a pair.

[winky51]

The problem lies that the other player will suckout on you a certain percentage of the time even when you have a set.

flush draws, straight draws, trips themselves setting up for the large FH or set over set.

Add all this up and it comes out to about 10:1 for a win.

Now compound that with you being out of position and the times the board looks so scary you have to fold when your actually ahead.

Thats what I am debating. There just isnt enough money in the pot.

Flop comes KT8 2 spades and pf raiser is betting his AsJh are you calling here with your 66? even if you do there are 10 cards to improve his hand on the turn that makes you super clobbered. Now a 2 comes, he bets again, are you calling? Lets say you raise the flop and he calls, you bet the turn again out of position? What if he has JJ? Even if he has AJ 10 outs is almost 50/50 for 2 cards.


I think you have to really know your player.

Now what about a flop like 743 and you check raise. Then bet. Many bad players will simply call with JJ or TT all the way down beng scared you have aces. Now you lost a bunch. Maybe vs a good player its possible. But if I see your calling with small pairs a lot in the BB I change my play.

[adios]

66 is alot different than 22 IMO when you consider that a suspected blind stealer has something like Ax in his range of hands, Kxs or even maybe Qxs. A blind stealer with this range of hands will have 2 overcards to your pair of deuces more than he will when you have 66. If the blind stealer pairs his low card, 66 will be ahead more often FWIW.

[winky51]

redraws from 2% to 25%.

a 7% hand is the opponent having top pair, backdoor flush, and backdoor straight.

a 15% redraw is backdoor flush, inside straight.

a 25% is a flush draw

a 13% is gut straight draw

a 22% if the opponent having trips AA6 board with AK vs 66.

So really 1:7.5 on your money is not as good as you think. You need 10:1. If they cap the flop and call down your looking at 11.5:1. Thats if you got them beat.

If you look at a PF raiser and a cold caller then thats 5.5:1 preflop odds. You can easily get 5 more SBs. 2 on the flop 1 turn, 1 river if the cold caller folds. And if you hit a set vs 2 callers its not that much difference on win %. Also if the 2nd player is calling down he is feeding your wallet so let say he calls the flop and turn thats an extra 4 SB (assume you raise the flop) Now were looking at 12-14 SBs won. 5 PF, 4-6 on the flop, 2 on the turn, maybe 2 on the river.

12-14:1 looks more like its worth the 10:1 shot at hitting the set and winning.

[winky51]

Blind stealer is different from the EP raiser.

BUT raises I am at least calling with a pair. Usually I raise.

[@bsolute_luck]

sorry bro. maybe i'm not a math guy, but folding in BB simply because an EP raises: you missing a lot of BBs. playing "no set no bet" thinking when calling to the flop is pretty sad too.

and maybe i'm way off or something but a tight EP raiser, even if we throw in 99 and 88:

non-pair combos: AK(16), AQ(16), AJ(16), KQ(16): 64
paired combos: AA-88(6 each): 42 combos

am i missing something? over 50% of the time, we're up against UI overcards.