Buying Points and Related Issues/Sports Betting Theory Question - Page 2

ThomasJoe · #11 09-30-2005, 12:41 PM

Do you use tradesports? If so are they reliable? Do you use pinnacle? thanks

YoureToast · #12 09-30-2005, 12:56 PM

Thanks for the post, but I think you've sort of missed my point. My goal is to try and find good value -- in poker terms, an +EV proposition.

Yes, I do use both Pinnacle and Tradesports. My question really related more to Tradesports than Pinnacle. My example is from the Atlanta/Minnesota matchup this weekend. There is a line at TS right now that would allow me to buy Atlanta -10.5 contracts at +155. My question is: since the standard line right now is -5.5 -110, how do I assess whether -10.5 +155 is a good value generally (without taking into account my handicapping capabilities)? If I were playing on Pinnacle, I would agree that generally I could take their lines for the various point spreads and consider them fair in a vacuum. The real question is, however, how do I determine what would be fair if a sportsbook doesn't provide me with insight as to whats fair (ie. Tradesports)? I hope that helps.

#13 09-30-2005, 01:23 PM

Pinnacle and TS -- those are the two books I currently use.

[ QUOTE ]
Example SD at NE total is 47.5 under minus 102 over minus 108. I say here why not take under 47 plus 105. I think this play makes more sense. It makes me into a bookie charging them juice as I do not think that there is any difference from 47.5 and 47.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's obviously a difference. According to your analysis, the buydown may be worth less than the cents you get in return but the potential loss of money remains. In addition, I think 47 is a relatively common total all things considered. No, a move from 47.5 to 47 (unlike 46.5) doesn't turn a win into a loss, but you still lose money if 47 hits.

ThomasJoe · #14 09-30-2005, 01:24 PM

Similar to Holdem this is a situation of incomplete info. Maybe one could start keeping stats and come up with an estimated value. Seems to me that would entail having access to a lot of data and the ability to write the software as well as the expertise in statistics to come up with the most accurate way to determine the EV. Also seems to be more than a one person task. And I think it is very possible that this is impossible!

Seems to me that sportstraders has simply made a more sophisticated sports book that is still just taking juice from it's customers and reducing it's own risk of losing. It does however give bettors another place to shop. Sorry i missed your point and maybe I still do, but i still think the goal of winning at sportsbetting is as impossible as it is to win at craps. And therefore I do not think there is +EV unless you are the one getting the juice/commission/fee or whatever you want to call it. Sports betting is simply a game with -EV and there is not much we can do about it.

YoureToast · #15 09-30-2005, 01:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
And therefore I do not think there is +EV unless you are the one getting the juice/commission/fee or whatever you want to call it. Sports betting is simply a game with -EV and there is not much we can do about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Several professional handicappers and sportsbetters I'm sure would beg to differ.

ThomasJoe · #16 09-30-2005, 02:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pinnacle and TS -- those are the two books I currently use.

[ QUOTE ]
Example SD at NE total is 47.5 under minus 102 over minus 108. I say here why not take under 47 plus 105. I think this play makes more sense. It makes me into a bookie charging them juice as I do not think that there is any difference from 47.5 and 47.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's obviously a difference. According to your analysis, the buydown may be worth less than the cents you get in return but the potential loss of money remains. In addition, I think 47 is a relatively common total all things considered. No, a move from 47.5 to 47 (unlike 46.5) doesn't turn a win into a loss, but you still lose money if 47 hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your obviously correct 100%. 47 is going to hit more than 3 out of 100 times which is what is being offered.

ThomasJoe · #17 09-30-2005, 02:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And therefore I do not think there is +EV unless you are the one getting the juice/commission/fee or whatever you want to call it. Sports betting is simply a game with -EV and there is not much we can do about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Several professional handicappers and sportsbetters I'm sure would beg to differ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure they would and they always will. But the real money is going to the brokers. Why do the books advertise handicappers, imo most if not all are scam artist. As for professional sports bettors do you know one that you are certain is truly successful. We hear stories, see movies, buy books. If I could beat sports betting I would not share my theory with anyone, I would remain as anonymous as possible and not even get greedy. I would just do it. I repeat that sports betting is -EV unless you can become the broker and for me that has been by grinding out middles in baseball when I find numbers that put me in a no lose situation.

#18 09-30-2005, 02:34 PM

The reason I responded specifically to that part of your long post is that type of bet is frequently considered "no risk" by bettors. Buying up from 47.5 to 48 on an over bet is similar thinking. The idea is "Well, I can't lose the bet outright by giving the half-point." If giving the half-point is -EV vs the frequency of the number in question hitting, you're making a losing move in the long-run -- a change in outcome of +bet to push is not no risk.

I'm not even certain whether this was your thinking, but I'm trying to drive the point home nonetheless. Believe me I give points also but only when the point move is +EV from the "original" number.

YoureToast · #19 09-30-2005, 02:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Believe me I give points also but only when the point move is +EV from the "original" number.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aha...So you DO have a way of determining this? (Well I know you did.)
So how do you make this determination? If that is part of your secret system, just say so and I won't ask again.

#20 09-30-2005, 02:42 PM

It is very, very difficult to grind out profit in sports handicapping, but there are some (few?) who do it. With increased competition among sportsbooks, it has become easier, relatively speaking of course, for bettors to clear profits because of more line offerings and lower wager prices among these many books. Pinnacle and TS alone have enabled me to almost triple the number of NFL wagers I make per year.