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#11
09-29-2005, 06:15 PM
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Re: Hand against crappy player...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 63s is definetly behind the top 50% of hands, and by a pretty large margin with most of them. [/ QUOTE ] Hot cold sims are not that useful. Instead of blindly calling to the river, let's assume I only play past the flops with a flush draw or other very favorable holding. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] OK, well I don't remember the exact numbers, but a flush draw is about 5%, a straight draw is considerably less, spiking a pair is about 1/3 (and that is not necessarily a favorable holding depending on the rest of the board), and the fact that almost all cards are overcards which again vs a 50% raiser is bad news. 
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#12
09-29-2005, 06:16 PM
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Re: Hand against crappy player...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I fold pre-flop, and don't think it is that close. Post-flop looks fine. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ]
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#13
09-29-2005, 06:17 PM
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Re: Hand against crappy player...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I fold pre-flop, and don't think it is that close. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, preflop is confusing. Let's assume PFR is a 50% raiser and BB fold only 1% of his blinds. Actually even then I think a fold is good. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] Yeah - you'll need to hit and hit big to win this hand in most cases. And the extra $5 to play in the SB compared to BB makes a difference. Imagine both hands played from the BB or SB, and the end pot is going to be 10 BBs. Investing $10 from the BB gives you implied odds of 19:1 when you take the pot (10 BBs = $200; -$10 PF investment = $190; $190:$10 = 19:1). From the SB, having to invest $15, the same pot on the end offers only 12.3:1 ($185:$15). It doesn't feel like much in $$ terms, but the hit to our implieds is significant, and makes the immediate PF odds offered if BB comes along and UTG calls not seem nearly as good. For example, I might call any 2 suited in the BB getting 5:1 with a raise and an SB coolcall and be happy about it, so why shouldn't I be happy with the 4.33:1 I'm getting if in your example BB calls and UTG calls? Implied odds take a big hit.
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#14
09-29-2005, 06:19 PM
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Re: Hand against crappy player...
[ QUOTE ]
OK, well I don't remember the exact numbers, but a flush draw is about 5%, a straight draw is considerably less, spiking a pair is about 1/3 (and that is not necessarily a favorable holding depending on the rest of the board), and the fact that almost all cards are overcards which again vs a 50% raiser is bad news. [/ QUOTE ] It's important to know how often you flop a flush draw. It's not 5%. It's 1/8. Krishan
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#15
09-29-2005, 06:22 PM
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Re: Hand against crappy player...
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 09.7289 % 07.98% 01.75% { random } Hand 2: 22.2245 % 21.80% 00.43% { random } Hand 3: 45.6167 % 44.76% 00.86% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o } Hand 4: 22.4299 % 20.26% 02.17% { 6s3s }
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#16
09-29-2005, 06:25 PM
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Re: Hand against crappy player...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] OK, well I don't remember the exact numbers, but a flush draw is about 5%, a straight draw is considerably less, spiking a pair is about 1/3 (and that is not necessarily a favorable holding depending on the rest of the board), and the fact that almost all cards are overcards which again vs a 50% raiser is bad news. [/ QUOTE ] It's important to know how often you flop a flush draw. It's not 5%. It's 1/8. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] My bad, I was thinking how often you make your flush.
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#17
09-29-2005, 06:28 PM
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Re: Hand against crappy player...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] OK, well I don't remember the exact numbers, but a flush draw is about 5%, a straight draw is considerably less, spiking a pair is about 1/3 (and that is not necessarily a favorable holding depending on the rest of the board), and the fact that almost all cards are overcards which again vs a 50% raiser is bad news. [/ QUOTE ] It's important to know how often you flop a flush draw. It's not 5%. It's 1/8. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] My bad, I was thinking how often you make your flush. [/ QUOTE ] krishan, what are the odds of flopping (2pr/trip/FD)?
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#18
09-29-2005, 06:44 PM
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Re: Hand against crappy player...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] OK, well I don't remember the exact numbers, but a flush draw is about 5%, a straight draw is considerably less, spiking a pair is about 1/3 (and that is not necessarily a favorable holding depending on the rest of the board), and the fact that almost all cards are overcards which again vs a 50% raiser is bad news. [/ QUOTE ] It's important to know how often you flop a flush draw. It's not 5%. It's 1/8. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] My bad, I was thinking how often you make your flush. [/ QUOTE ] krishan, what are the odds of flopping (2pr/trip/FD)? [/ QUOTE ] 2 pair using both cards 1/49 2 pair on paired board 1/24 trips 1/73 Krishan
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#19
09-29-2005, 06:46 PM
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Re: Hand against crappy player...
[ QUOTE ]
krishan, what are the odds of flopping (2pr/trip/FD)? [/ QUOTE ] ** pretends he's Krishan ** 2 pair = 49:1 using both your pocket cards) trips = 73:1 FD = 8.1:1 Edit: Damn! Not fast enough [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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#20
09-29-2005, 06:49 PM
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Re: Hand against crappy player...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] krishan, what are the odds of flopping (2pr/trip/FD)? [/ QUOTE ] ** pretends he's Krishan ** 2 pair = 49:1 using both your pocket cards) trips = 73:1 FD = 8.1:1 Edit: Damn! Not fast enough [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] so theoretically i should call with any 2 suited given 6:1 preflop right?
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