Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament

[zoobird]

Short answer - no. Obviously.

But here's a hypothetical to make this more interesting. OP said this was a home tourney where his friend is one of the top 2 or 3. Let's assume that the other 97 players are awful. None have ever read a book on poker, talked with a good player, or been exposed to how to play well in any other way. They will play any hand with a face card, any pair, and the size of their bets always telegraphs the relative strength of their hand. Is it possible that a good player against such weak competition would have so many +EV situations that they could actually do best by avoiding all-ins in order to decrease variance? I think its possible. If not, how about if the other 97 people play completely randomly - any two cards are good and calling vs. raising is random?

[Melchiades]

Posts like this always amaze me. I can't fathom people who feel they are going to outplay a large field by passing up 80-20 edges. It doesn't make any sense at all.

Specially considering how much doubling up will be worth to a superior player who knows how to utilize a big stack.

[diebitter]

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Posts like this always amaze me. I can't fathom people who feel they are going to outplay a large field by passing up 80-20 edges. It doesn't make any sense at all.

Specially considering how much doubling up will be worth to a superior player who knows how to utilize a big stack.

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If it were ealy in the tourney, and I have lots left behind me to act, I fold. If I'm last or v. close to it, and it's just the all-inner, and the tourney's just started OR the guy is wildish, I'm all in and praying for no ace.

[Melchiades]

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Let's assume that the other 97 players are awful. None have ever read a book on poker, talked with a good player, or been exposed to how to play well in any other way. They will play any hand with a face card, any pair, and the size of their bets always telegraphs the relative strength of their hand. Is it possible that a good player against such weak competition would have so many +EV situations that they could actually do best by avoiding all-ins in order to decrease variance?

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I don't see how you can avoid all ins versus a field like that. Donks like that would love to go all in over the top of you with lots of dodgy hands and call things they shouldnt.

Your edge will be huge, but you will still need to win the 80-20's.

[Melchiades]

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If it were ealy in the tourney, and I have lots left behind me to act, I fold. If I'm last or v. close to it, and it's just the all-inner, and the tourney's just started OR the guy is wildish, I'm all in and praying for no ace.

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OP said you should fold KK even if you knew villain has JJ. Which means he thought you should fold AA to an all in. So no need to pray for no ace.

For me it depends on the size of the buy in and how long before I got another chance, if it were a big buy in tourney.

To be honest as much as a complete pussy it would leave me feeling I think I may be able to lay down A-A at this stage.

But then again probably not, i just love turning those badboys over and seeing the bloodrush from the other guys face!! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[diebitter]

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If it were ealy in the tourney, and I have lots left behind me to act, I fold. If I'm last or v. close to it, and it's just the all-inner, and the tourney's just started OR the guy is wildish, I'm all in and praying for no ace.

[/ QUOTE ]
OP said you should fold KK even if you knew villain has JJ. Which means he thought you should fold AA to an all in. So no need to pray for no ace.

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I'm taking this as not knowing the villain's cards. JJ I all in if I think 0 or 1 other will also come in.

I get what you are saying and I am always playing with thought that I will outplay them later in the tournament when I fold a nice hand. But that's only when I am feeling that my opponent got a stronger hand than me even tho mine is nice as hell.

Folding AA here preflop to an all in because you can outplay them later don't sound too good. You should take any chance to dubble up in a tournament, doesn't matter if it's early or late in a tournament. So if he bust you, big deal really, I'm sure there will be more tournaments of this kind soon where you can take your revenge.

[sunek]

Hi

I would never fold Kings pre-flop since the only hand you will fear is AA, and if you crush an opponent you will have an even bigger advantage over your opponents. In most tournaments you will have to gamble to win and I believe that this is one of those chances. Anyway I found this in the NL forum

Kings preflop

Best regards

sunek

P.S. Let us know if this case actually happens - I doubt it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[fnurt]

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You're going to have to win some allins to win this, doesnt matter if it's early or late, if you know you're best, you get your money in.

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Not true at all. I've played many tournament where I've built my stack up to over 10 times the starting stack, never exposing more than 33% of my stack on any one hand.

Anyone who has actually put some thought in this, please chime in, I'd love to hear your opinions.

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I have a better idea. How about if you come back and ask again once you have "actually put some thought into it," because I don't think you have. The issue of whether there is a risk-free way to accumulate chips has been discussed to death on this forum, and the answer is no. Why do you suppose so many world-class players bust out on the first day of the WSOP?

Yes, sometimes there will be tournaments where everything goes smoothly and you steadily accumulate chips. But that doesn't mean you're doing so without luck. The other players still have two cards, and you are getting lucky every time they fail to hit their hand and have to fold. There is no way that any method of collecting "small pots" will end up giving you a better than 80% chance to double up.