Is this fold obvious? - Page 2

Andy B · #11 09-28-2005, 10:13 AM

I'm not one to go around folding pairs, but third is a fold. Since you called, when the Eight shows on fourth, I think that's probably a fold too. You raised to get it heads-up, and that didn't happen. Both of the guys you were trying to drive out have caught cards that fit in pretty well with their door cards. Did you really think that you could get them both out? You leave yourself out of position with a dead hand in a big pot.

Fifth and sixth are both good. The guy with Kings-up showing on sixth is betting into an apparent flush. He should have Kings full.

Jeffage · #12 09-28-2005, 10:26 AM

Third is a clear fold. Fourth is just spewing even though I see what you were trying to do. You now you have one trip out and 2 two pair outs. So basically you're drawing to a scary board. 6th is a fold I think. It's obvious the other guy has a flush yet the KK77 is still betting into him. He could have Aces Up, but I figure him to be more likely to have Kings Full.

Jeff

BeerMoney · #13 09-28-2005, 12:14 PM

You should have called fifth. Your full house outs at this point are not very live. You should have figured the spades for a four flush on fourth when they called two cold and limped with a dead jack. I would say you have less than 1/3 equity at this point, and are not interested in pouring money into this pot.

Roland · #14 09-28-2005, 12:47 PM

I think you are drawing live often enough here to call getting 15:1 (hopefully; but most people just call with a flush in that spot I’d say).
Some other hands seat 3 could have that he would be willing to call with on 5th when it’s two bets back to him include buried aces (3 ways), a flush draw (21 ways) or maybe even trip 7s (he might have raised with junk looking at a bunch of dead cards).

Roland · #15 09-28-2005, 12:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You should have called fifth. Your full house outs at this point are not very live. You should have figured the spades for a four flush on fourth when they called two cold and limped with a dead jack. I would say you have less than 1/3 equity at this point, and are not interested in pouring money into this pot.

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I think this is player dependent. Against some you can be sure enough they has the flush (me, for instance; not Beer though, because he limp-re-raises on 3rd [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]). But a loose player could easily just have gotten stubborn on 4th with any random pocket pair + 3-flush (or maybe without). So I’d say a raise is +EV against most players, considering your average equity.

Roland · #16 09-28-2005, 12:57 PM

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6th is a fold I think. It's obvious the other guy has a flush yet the KK77 is still betting into him. He could have Aces Up, but I figure him to be more likely to have Kings Full.

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People are stupid. And betting with that board isn’t even really stupid, since he won’t get raised very often.
Also, he might be betting 7s full (it’s a stretch, but not impossible).

BeerMoney · #17 09-28-2005, 02:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should have called fifth. Your full house outs at this point are not very live. You should have figured the spades for a four flush on fourth when they called two cold and limped with a dead jack. I would say you have less than 1/3 equity at this point, and are not interested in pouring money into this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is player dependent. Against some you can be sure enough they has the flush (me, for instance; not Beer though, because he limp-re-raises on 3rd [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]). But a loose player could easily just have gotten stubborn on 4th with any random pocket pair + 3-flush (or maybe without). So I’d say a raise is +EV against most players, considering your average equity.

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I see what you're saying. I absolutely raise 4th with a live 4 flush.

PoorLawyer · #18 09-28-2005, 03:34 PM

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I don't.

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I fold it too every time with a dead Q.

frappeboy · #19 09-28-2005, 09:55 PM

When the pot gets this big, you shouldn't be doing any guesswork. If you call 6th and the flush guy raises and 2 pair re-raises, then it's time to fold.

Making delicate fold when the pot gets big is a very costly mistake, especially given the opposition on partypoker. I'd guess you are ahead right now 25% of the time.

BeerMoney · #20 09-29-2005, 12:32 AM

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Making delicate fold when the pot gets big is a very costly mistake, especially given the opposition on partypoker. I'd guess you are ahead right now 25% of the time.

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no.

He might have odds 25% of the time. But he's not ahead here 25% of the time.

I'm drunk. (buzzed)