Flop and turn play? - Page 2

#11 09-26-2005, 07:12 PM

Cleaning up undercard (ten) outs?

A3 is the only hand you might eliminate here.

POKhER · #12 09-26-2005, 07:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What about cleaning up Ace and Ten outs? These guys WILL play any ace, so I want A3 to fold, or T3.

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Your drawing to the nuts, If you spike an ace with button going psycho i'd say your behing anyhow.

As your drawing, id want to keep customers rathing than potentially killing the field(THis 3bet on the flop could have folded MP2 and bb(who did unfortunatly).

If it went heads up you lose your whole equity edge.

Nilbud · #13 09-26-2005, 07:15 PM

My plan for the river is obvious if I hit the straight or flush, I'm bet/raising as fast as I can. If I hit trips with the Ten, I'm leading out and calling a raise.

If I miss but the river is a blank, I bet/call. If it completes a draw, say a J, I check/fold. If I hit and A for two-pair, I probably bet/call while cringing horribly.

POKhER · #14 09-26-2005, 07:18 PM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Flop: (8 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP2 calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (9 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)

OR

Flop: (8 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP2 calls, Button raises, Hero calls,, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8BB (4 players)
1 BB down(Made up if BB now calls (I.e. Hits a straight draw or maybe 2pair who knows what he held).

aces_dad · #15 09-26-2005, 07:21 PM

I was also surprised to see so many people betting the turn here. I think we're behind, don't have equity for value bet and feel FE is low here.

I'm calling the flop and c/c the turn myself ...

Nilbud · #16 09-26-2005, 07:22 PM

I wasn't really thinking about cleaning up outs to be completely honest. After two hours at this table with pretty much the same players, I'd seen them all cold-call 3-bets after the called the initial raise. In fact that's standard fare here on the Party beginner tables. So, my raise was for value, because I was pretty confident that one of them would cold-call, and maybe both.

I've got 12 outs, which means I win ~45% of the time, but if at least one of them cold-calls, I'm only putting in ~33% of the money. If they both fold I'm in trouble, but I was pretty confident in my reads.

numeri · #17 09-26-2005, 07:26 PM

I like it all. You have 12 outs to the nuts on the flop, not even including your A outs, so your bet and raise are for value. On the turn, you picked up 5 more outs, bringing you to a whopping 17 if you're even drawing.

Nilbud · #18 09-26-2005, 07:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
To everyone who's betting the turn (so, basically everyone):
What is our turn bet accomplishing here? What are we hoping to achieve with our bet?
We don't have the fold equity for it, we're likely already behind and don't have the equity to bet for value, and if someone did improve to a straight or something we're paying 2 bets to draw. Why not check-call on the off chance that we get a free card and avoid the chance that we'll be raised?

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be right, but here's my thought process. On the turn, the only player I can put on a hand is the button. I don't think he's got AJ for the straight because I've been watching him for two hours and I am confident he's raising that pre-flop every time. It's possible he's got J9, but unlikely considering he raised the flop. I think he's got Kx a good percentage of the time. MP2 is a complete unknown at this stage. He's shown no aggression so far, and he plays any two cards, so who knows.

So, if I discount my Ten outs for MP2 by .5 an out, that gives me 13.5 outs. According to PokerStove, my equity against Kx and a random hand with that board is 40.5%. With my bet, I'm only putting in ~33%. That looks to be a value bet to me.

Nilbud · #19 09-26-2005, 07:38 PM

You're right, I discounted the Ace outs entirely. Adding those, with my standard discount, I come up with at least 15 outs. I think I'm pretty happy with the value of the turn bet.

Nilbud · #20 09-26-2005, 07:54 PM

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If it went heads up you lose your whole equity edge.

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That just wasn't going to happen enough times to even consider it. If these guys have a clue about cold-calling, I'd venture that most of them don't think calling two after calling an initial bet even qualifies as cold-calling.

This is exactly what crossed my mind as I clicked raise. If my read is wrong, fair enough. I figure, what's the point in reads if you don't exploit them to give yourself an edge?