99 on underboard meets aggression at all stages

[ArturiusX]

I don't mind the flop bet. C/r has a few problems, namely:

1) The pots so big, it won't really kill anyones draw
2) We're in bad relative position to knock out opponents, so it'd be for value.

But I don't think our equity is huge in this pot. Sometimes its better to play it straight and bet this flop, see what happens.

The turn is a good card for you, so I like the best.

River the pot is big, so I call.

NH

[Hojglad]

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I like the turn bet (on the off chance he's got AK, AQ) but after the raise, that's where the hand ends for me.

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Folding this turn getting 20:1 would be absolutely criminal. You have a gutshot and a 2 out draw to the nuts. I don't necessarily agree with the turn bet, but once it has been made, there is no way you can fold on the turn when you are raised.

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I like the turn bet (on the off chance he's got AK, AQ) but after the raise, that's where the hand ends for me.

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Folding this turn getting 20:1 would be absolutely criminal. You have a gutshot and a 2 out draw to the nuts. I don't necessarily agree with the turn bet, but once it has been made, there is no way you can fold on the turn when you are raised.

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You are right. I forgot about the gutshot. I don't necessarily think the 7 is clean (T9 is another very likely holding), nor do I think that there is still 4 of them left but YES it is worth a call. I am definitely folding the river UI.

FWIW. the 2 outs you're drawing to isn't the nuts if someone is smoothcalling pocket 6's.[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Hojglad]

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FWIW. the 2 outs you're drawing to isn't the nuts if someone is smoothcalling pocket 6's.

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If someone shows pocket 6s here, I'll eat my hat [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[Wally Weeks]

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I don't mind the flop bet. C/r has a few problems, namely:

1) The pots so big, it won't really kill anyones draw
2) We're in bad relative position to knock out opponents, so it'd be for value.

But I don't think our equity is huge in this pot. Sometimes its better to play it straight and bet this flop, see what happens.

The turn is a good card for you, so I like the best.

River the pot is big, so I call.

NH

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Yeah, I'd probably also bet out on the flop. However, the check/raise would test to see where we stand without having the risk of capping the flop. I'm not sure what "normal aggression" means...but if you suspected that this opponent would only 3-bet preflop w/ an overpair of JJ+ or maybe AK, then a check/raise could allow us to dump this on the turn w/o improving. Knocking out a couple of players sandwitched between the bet and the raise would be a nice added bonus.

The turn card is definitely good, but I'd probably check/call both the turn and the river. What's the point of the stop and go? Otherwise good hand.

Walter

[Student Caine]

Let's take this street by street:

Preflop:
The raise with 99 is a little agressive, but not totally out of line if the table is fairly loose-passive...seeing as how it is Party 1/2 it probably is haha. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

The fact that you get 3-bet by a fairly tight CO means that we are probably looking at the following hands from him: AA-TT, AKs or AKo (discounted imo).

Flop:

This raise screams AA-TT, which means that you are in really bad shape. Couple that with the fact that the board has paired and you can't be happy. The only good news is that a weak card has paired.

I think that if this is a two player hand and you get raised here, then you try to get to the showdown as cheaply as possible. The other players make this a bit tougher as going submissive on the flop if CO is trying to push you out with AKs/AKo here you are missing the opportunity to raise out the other players.

Man, this sucks....I think I call here...this may be weak-tight though. I think what swings it for me is that a raise isn't going to protect our hand here.

Turn:
The 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] gives you the gutshot draw. So if you check and get bet at, you now have 6 outs. We can discount these if you like (for fear of a made full house), but even if we drop it back to 4 we are still looking at 11:1 and the pot is too big to fold if we get bet at by CO.

The other option would be to bet out. I don't think this is bad as you don't want to give CO a free draw to spike his A or K if that's what he is holding. Also, if he raises he is charging BB improper odds to draw to a gutshot.

I was trying to figure out the equity here and this may be incorrect, but if we figure BB as a random hand and MP as AQs-AJs, KQs then we have ~33% equity in this pot. This means that even with this so even if we bet and get raise we are breaking even if we can get one other caller along with us.

Something we do need to keep in mind here is that the turn raise has to make us think that we are still looking at AA/KK more and AKs less. This is a tough spot.

River:
You didn't improve, but the pot is too big to fold. You only need to be good less than 5% of the time here to be profitable. You have to call.

[smoovee]

im not leading this flop, wait to c/r and have them face 2 cold and see where u stand first of all.

[TomBrooks]

You can just call down after the flop.

CO has TT-AA and most likely QQ-AA or he's misplaying his hand, because he should put you on an overpair.

He doesn't have a flush draw unless it's specifically A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] so the chance that he's going for a free card on the turn are very small.

Just call down in case he's misplaying AK or something, but expect to lose this hand most of the time.

Edit: Upon more reflection, maybe CO would raise the flop with any AK even if he put you on an overpair in hopes of getting a free card on the turn for chances to hit an Ace or King on the river. So your turn bet might not be a bad idea. When he raises it there, you can put him on the overpair and call with your gutshot chances. With a small pot you could fold the river, but the pot is very big and it's possible CO would fire a final bluff shot there so calling that looks wise. You will pick up this pot occassionally.

[Hojglad]

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You will pick up this pot occassionally.

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See the action on the turn? If you don't hit your gutshot or your boat, and as long as the cutoff is a reasonable player, there is no way you are good on the river.

Flop: I'm not sure I would do it differently even after given the analysis. There's 2 people between me and the reraiser on each side. I know my hand is very vulnerable to overcards to come, but I can't really protect. Maybe I should have 3-bet when it came back, making the 1 caller to my right eat 2 more cold (after the reraiser made the blinds stare at 2 cold (but if they call one bet, they usually call future bets in same round)). I would have had strong information if he capped.

Turn: I think I bet out with the thought that this might get some overcards out and if the CO's flop raise was for a free card, it didn't work . Although my hand is improved, my hand is so vulnerable here. AK might give up the fight at this point. In retrospect, I am no longer confident this was the right play.

River: Call because I'm getting 20-1. River card likely didn't improve anyone. It's probably a toss up if I'm a 5% favorite here, but a whiffed AK could be trying a bet-fold bluff here, knowing that this is a last ditch effort to win a huge pot.