Ever wonder if you're really a flip with A/K after limpers?

[Exitonly]

Just a quick pokerstove thing.


AK vs 77 No dead cards.. 45 v 55
...

One K dead .. 60 v 40

One 7 dead .. 50 v 50

one K one 7 ..45 v 55 [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

[The Student]

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Just a quick pokerstove thing.


AK vs 77 No dead cards.. 45 v 55
...

One K dead .. 60 v 40

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yeah, this is what i'm afraid of and what would make it a bad call in the situation i described in my OP.


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one K one 7 ..55 v 45 [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

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very interesting. i wonder if this goes back to 50/50 with an A and a K out (or two As or two Ks out) and one 7 out. I don't have pokerstove on this computer or I'd check it myself. this stat alone definitely makes me feel like i shouldn't spend a lot more time worrying about these situations.

thanks exitonly,

ts-

[Exitonly]

whoops, edited my post, i wrote the one K one 7 one wrong...

when two A's or K's are gone and 1 7 gone, it's back to 60/40 for the 7's. (predictably)

edit: so i think unless you have some solid reasons that an A or K is gone, i think it's something to neglect, it balancecse out in time.

You shouldn't be taking situations where it's 'close' for a coinflip anyway.

You can check it at twodimes.net if you'd like. That's how I usually get my preflop %s.

[The Student]

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whoops, edited my post, i wrote the one K one 7 one wrong...

when two A's or K's are gone and 1 7 gone, it's back to 60/40 for the 7's. (predictably)

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Ahh, that makes more sense - thanks for clarifying.

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edit: so i think unless you have some solid reasons that an A or K is gone, i think it's something to neglect, it balancecse out in time.

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yeah, it's not like someone said that they had an A or K - so i had no way of really knowing if some of my outs were already in the muck. so hopefully it does all balance out in time.

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You shouldn't be taking situations where it's 'close' for a coinflip anyway.

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i'm trying out some new things in my MTT strategy - so this time I tried to take a flip early just to see what would happen if I quickly doubled up and was able to bully the table a bit. but yeah, normally i would not call this early in a tourney if i thought i was a flip.

ts-

I kinda came up with the idea of bunching independently, and I do wonder about it sometimes. I don't know if I should be concerned about it or not, so if someone wants to comment on it, that would be great. Of course, it also seems entirely possible that, you could be folded to on the button with JTs or 7s or something like that, and the first four players to act mucked Ax small while the next three mucked Kx medium. In that case, you're holding some very nice cards.

Anyway, responding to the main point of the thread, I think your concern is valid, but I guess I wouldn't worry about it too much. You might want to take a look at Gavagai's post again. Basically, if you assume that you lose one ace or king from the limpers, you lose seven non-aces or kings (i.e. cards that aren't outs for you). So, if you just assumed that all cards were live (except a pp from the villian), you'd be looking at 6 outs out of 48 cards, which is 12.5% of the deck that can help you. If you assume that one ace or king is gone and that the other 7 cards are not aces or kings, you have 5 outs out of 40 cards, or 12.5% of the deck that can help you. If you assume that 2 aces or kings are gone, then you have 4 outs out of 40 cards, giving you help from 10% of the deck. Please note that this isn't your chances of winning but merely the percentage of cards in the deck that will improve your hand. An assumption of two of these cards being held by opponents is probably a bit high, as they could equally as likely be holding QJ or JT, any suited connectors probably down to 56, any small to mid pp, and if they're as donkish as some that I've seen, Q3s (this is just bitterness over my aces getting busted by Q3s calling a pre-flop raise, an all-in on the flop, and then making river trips).

[schwza]

a lot of people have said similar things, but i don't think anyone has really nailed this, so i'll take my shot:

- it's bad if a K or A has been mucked. it's good if a 7 had. but there are 6 A/K's and 2 7's. also, i think that it's much more likely for Ax or Kx to get limped than 7x. 7x is more likely to fold if it gets raised than Ax/Kx, but i think that's easily overwhelmed by Ax/Kx getting limped more and there being 6 vs 2 unaccounted for. therefor, when you see a limp-fold, you should assume the number of A/K's left in the deck goes down (in expectation) much more than 7's (or whatever villain's pair is).

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i'm not sure I follow all that you are talking about here. what are non-outs and why should I care about them?

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if you were deciding whether or not to call the push and then the limp-folders flipped over their cards to show they had mucked the 12 2's, 3's, and 4's, then your odds of beating 77 goes way up.

no dead cards -
pokenum -h ac kh - 7c 7s
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kh 767723 44.84 938402 54.80 6179 0.36 0.450
7s 7c 938402 54.80 767723 44.84 6179 0.36 0.550

no 2-4's
pokenum -h ac kh - 7c 7s / 2c 2d 2s 2h 3c 3d 3h 3s 4c 4d 4h 4s
Holdem Hi: 376992 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kh 198967 52.78 174975 46.41 3050 0.81 0.532
7s 7c 174975 46.41 198967 52.78 3050 0.81 0.468

Let me try and do this again in a different way. If one of your aces is missing, it's not the only card that's missing. Making the deck shorter increases your chances of hitting your remaining outs, taking an A out decreases it--they come damn close to canceling.

The more important thing to realize is that cards that you can't see are random and should be ignored. Cards that call are slightly more likely to have As, but the effect is insignificant and should absolutely never effect your play. Please try to understand this and play AK.

[schwza]

oh yeah, sorry, i forgot to make the most important point in response:

this is probably a pretty tiny effect. i've never once considered it and i'm not going to start.

edit: also, if you think there are fewer A's and K's out, you're less likely to run into AA or KK, which helps balance out.

[dmk]

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Here's a situation that I've been thinking about lately. Don't have the HH, but the hand went something like this:

UB $11 NLHE MTT
early levels, blinds at 20/40
5 limpers ahead of me, I'm on button with A/Ko. I raise pot to try to get it HU or just take it down. Folded to MP limper who now pushes back at me. We both started with average stacks and it would effectively put me AI too.

Here's the question:
After 5 limpers, assuming this guy has a PP other than As or Ks, is this really a flip? Is it really possible that none of the other limpers have an ace or king, and therefore, do I really have all 6 outs here against a PP?
anyone fold this here?
thoughts?

ts-

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you don't need it to be a flip. your pot-raise is 340, assuming the pusher had ~1500 to start the hand, it's 1200 into a 2100 pot. you only need 36% equity to make calling correct. if he doesn't have AA or KK, you easily have that, even if he has a mid-PP and an A or K is dead. however, it can be argued that one of the players that didn't limp could have potentially folded his 2-outs to a set because they had 92, etc. thats why you can't make this type of argument, its possible for anyone to have any-2 cards, so you have to just count on having 6 outs.