PLO8 $600, preflop misclick, what now?

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the rest of the hand. Turns out I was a 53/47 favorite against the short stack's hand, but it wasn't to be:

Hero raises [$820.50].
poster folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 9c ]
Hero shows [ Qh, 3h, Ad, Kd ] a pair of nines.
Vimorre shows [ 2d, Ac, Ts, As ] two pairs, aces and nines.
Hero wins $641 from side pot #1 with a pair of nines.
Vimorre wins $641 from the main pot with two pairs, aces and nines.
There was no qualifying low hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are going to play, then raising is much better than calling, imho. And if shortstacks play is such that you can put him on something other than AA a decent % of the time, then i like your line fine.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here's the rest of the hand. Turns out I was a 53/47 favorite against the short stack's hand, but it wasn't to be:

Hero raises [$820.50].
poster folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 9c ]
Hero shows [ Qh, 3h, Ad, Kd ] a pair of nines.
Vimorre shows [ 2d, Ac, Ts, As ] two pairs, aces and nines.
Hero wins $641 from side pot #1 with a pair of nines.
Vimorre wins $641 from the main pot with two pairs, aces and nines.
There was no qualifying low hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are going to play, then raising is much better than calling, imho. And if shortstacks play is such that you can put him on something other than AA a decent % of the time, then i like your line fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I definitely put him on AA, and my thinking was that if my flush draw is good, then I have a respectable chance of hitting the high, and the backdoor low will add ~10% equity as well, giving me more than enough to justify a 2:1 call, which is what I'm getting if I can force poster out. Of course, this all relies on poster not having a strong enough hand to call, so it's a huge, stupid risk for a relatively small reward (chance at a coinflip when getting 2:1 odds).

This one is along the lines of your QQ99 hand I think--justifiable under the right circumstances, and perhaps you can assign a reasonable range of hands that makes the play look correct, but in actuality if we do run it a couple thousand times, I'm going to come out significantly behind because of the times shortstack has the nut flush draw to go w/ AA, and the times poster can call behind w/ a monster.

[Mendacious]

This type of hand, along with the QQ99 hand are why I think humans and programs approach problems very differently. I think Humans will typically assign a much greater percentage chance to the up against the "wrong" hands, and a program would fail to see the danger, and look strictly at the probability and calculate EV's based on that. There is no clear cut answer as to which approach in such hands, however, I think people are much better at correctly putting opponents on a hand than any program could ever hope to be. So I really favor listening to that little voice.

[emptyshell]

I'm not sure you are in bad shape calling that raise preflop, actually. From twodimes, preflop EV:

Ad Kd Qh 3h 0.371
8s Ac 7c 2c 0.355
As Td 6d Ah 0.275

Ad Kd Qh 3h 0.329
8s Ac 7c 2c 0.356
As Td Ah 6h 0.316

Ad Kd Qh 3h 0.315
8s Ac 3c 2c 0.345
As Td 6d Ah 0.340

Ad Kd Qh 3h 0.315
8s Ac 7c 2c 0.388
As Td 3d Ah 0.298

You aren't in terrible shape EV-wise. It's just a matter of playing the flop well.

On the flop, if you were just up against the shortstack, it would be a clear call. A much bigger concern is the big stack left to act. Since he raised preflop, you can figure he's not in love with the flop, since it doesn't allow for a low (of course, A2JJ is always a possibility). I think you're primary concern should be that he has the A-high flush draw.

So, there are three options: (1) call and see what he does, (2) raise and try to knock him off a flush draw, (3) fold. You'd have to have a pretty good read to be sure that (2) would work. Nobody could argue (3) is a bad option.

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
If it werent for the player behind you,

I'd call and punch myself for getting into that situation.

Since there's a "strong" player behind you...

I'd fold and punch myself for getting into that situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure you are in bad shape calling that raise preflop, actually. From twodimes, preflop EV:

Ad Kd Qh 3h 0.371
8s Ac 7c 2c 0.355
As Td 6d Ah 0.275

Ad Kd Qh 3h 0.329
8s Ac 7c 2c 0.356
As Td Ah 6h 0.316

Ad Kd Qh 3h 0.315
8s Ac 3c 2c 0.345
As Td 6d Ah 0.340

Ad Kd Qh 3h 0.315
8s Ac 7c 2c 0.388
As Td 3d Ah 0.298

You aren't in terrible shape EV-wise. It's just a matter of playing the flop well.

On the flop, if you were just up against the shortstack, it would be a clear call. A much bigger concern is the big stack left to act. Since he raised preflop, you can figure he's not in love with the flop, since it doesn't allow for a low (of course, A2JJ is always a possibility). I think you're primary concern should be that he has the A-high flush draw.

So, there are three options: (1) call and see what he does, (2) raise and try to knock him off a flush draw, (3) fold. You'd have to have a pretty good read to be sure that (2) would work. Nobody could argue (3) is a bad option.

[/ QUOTE ]

Equity-wise it may not look so bad to call preflop, but since (1) there are big stacks still behind after the call, (2) I am OOP to the biggest stack and initial PF raiser to boot, and (3) my hand is not, generally, as bettable as the others likely are postflop, this is not a great place to intentionally call the bet. The way the misclick went down, FWIW, is that I was about to check the auto-call button to call poster's raise when the shortstack reraised just as I was clicking. Hence an instantaneous call of the reraise (do'h).

Anyhow, postflop I hate the way I played it because I put $800 out there for poster to essentially take from me anytime he has A2h or A2-set, just to get into a ~coinflip situation when getting 2:1 odds in a $500 pot. In the long run, that can't be a winner.