Nut flush draw from the BB, PFR from UTG - Page 2

Shillx · #11 09-19-2005, 10:20 PM

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (9 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero chcks, UTG bets, MP2 folds, MP3 raises, Hero ???

This is far and away the most interesting case here. We should check and see, but what do we do when it is either 3-bet or coldcall or fold?

Brad

Mathieu · #12 09-19-2005, 11:30 PM

If utg is unknown or aggressive, I 3 bet because it could buy myself a couple of A outs if I am dominated.

Since the read says he is tight and passive, his flop bet makes him more likely to have something like a pocket pair or AK. So I would be tempted to keep him in (in case he has pp).

I don't know how reliable is the read though. If I've seen him checking UIOC on the flop in similar spots then OK. If all I have is a %, then I 3 bet as it would suck to spike an A and lose this 12+ sb pot just because he was more aggressive than I thought.

milesdyson · #13 09-19-2005, 11:32 PM

coldcall that shiz.

Brain · #14 09-19-2005, 11:35 PM

Time to coldcall.

bozlax · #15 09-19-2005, 11:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think that Hammer is talking about folding hands that have you beat if you spike an A or 7 (e.g., 65o or AT). This helps clear some of your outs, so now instead of having your 9 flush outs you have your 9 flush outs plus 3 Aces and 3 Sevens.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aye, I understand that, Mr. Caine! Which hand ye be happier taking to showdown (and which be more likely), a pair of 7s or aces, or the nut flush, argh! So, ye decide which hand plays better, and ye go with that one!

bozlax · #16 09-19-2005, 11:49 PM

I coldcall and hope that UTG caps it.

scotty34 · #17 09-20-2005, 12:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would check and raise if I can trap some people.

I would check and call if I can't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why trap people? I'd love to bet out and fold better aces than me, or weak kings that were scared by calling two cold. I bet here and HOPE to get raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a pretty good chance UTG has a better A, and if you think he is going anywhere, you are kidding yourself. If he doesn't have a better A, he is still very likely beating you at this point. You bet, he raises and knocks the other two out of the pot. This then requires you to put a bet in when you are at an equity disadvantage.

Sure you may clear up A outs if the other two guys fold, but I think valuing your A at 1.5 outs is generous. In this scenario, you have an equity edge from your nut flush draw. You are 38% chance to the nuts, while only having to put 25% of the bets into the pot if everyone sees the turn. Check-Raise to trap is the correct play.

scotty34 · #18 09-20-2005, 12:10 AM

Getting 11.5:2 immediate odds, and realistically 12.5:1, we cold call because we have odds to continue for our flush draw. We do not 3-bet, as we do not want UTG to fold. Our pot equity is barely above our betting equity, we don't want it to go below.

We can 3-bet this if we have a solid read that UTG will call 2 or cap however.

Shillx · #19 09-20-2005, 12:18 AM

It makes me sad that everyone wants to coldcall here. This is such an easy 3-bet...

1) We might fold out UTG who could very well have AJ or AQ or whatever.

2) It will give us extra implied odds if we make a hand. They will not put us on a flush draw when we 3-bet the flop where they will shutdown after we call 2 cold since it gives our hand away.

Brad

istewart · #20 09-20-2005, 12:21 AM

I agree with your first point, but I'm not totally sold on 2) as of yet. Let's say we 3-bet and both call and the turn blanks. Then we kinda give our hand away yes? Or are you referring to the times we hit on the turn (and/or hit on the river and get to check/raise)?