10/20: blind defense round 5, part 3 - QTo

[Surfbullet]

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Domination is not likely and implied odds are great. Checkcall flop. Fold turn if it isnt Q, J, T or 9.

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Hey kiddo,

a J or 9 only gives me a gutshot. I need 6.8:1 to hit a pair and I'm only getting 5.5:1. Are implied odds sufficient to make this up? Also, if we call the turn w/ overs + a gutshot we are getting 4.25:1 to call and hit a 7-10 outer? I feel like we give up alot by folding when we miss because of insufficient pot odds.

Surf

[MarkD]

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Nothing too wrong with folding. Nothing wrong with peeling one on the flop either though, especially against a player who's likely to give you action with a worse hand if you hit. Really just depends on whether you feel frisky at the time. I bet it's about even EV either way.

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Sums up my thoughts perfectly.

[kiddo]

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I need 6.8:1 to hit a pair and I'm only getting 5.5:1. Are implied odds sufficient to make this up?

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Easily. Think about this way: What will happen if I hit pair on turn? 1) You will almost always be ahead. 2) He will almost never fold. 3) You will probably get 2BB out of him.

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a J or 9 only gives me a gutshot.

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Yes, its marginal to call turn (pretty EVneutral I would guess), but against a player this aggressive, raising 42% preflop - I think u should call with 10 outs for straight or toppair on turn.

If u hit u will often get one more BB out of him. Also there are some chance - I guess - he will check behind on river with worse hand (I dont know this of course, maybe there isnt).

[cartman]

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What will happen if I hit pair on turn?

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Am I correct to assume that you guys would checkraise if the turn brings a Q or a T. What about against a 15% preflop raiser. I often donk the turn or call the turn and donk the river.

Is this too weak?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Surfbullet]

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What will happen if I hit pair on turn?

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Am I correct to assume that you guys would checkraise if the turn brings a Q or a T. What about against a 15% preflop raiser. I often donk the turn or call the turn and donk the river.

Is this too weak?

Thanks,
Cartman

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No. Playing a strong 1pair hand passively HU in a tiny pot against an aggressive player can be quite a good move. A thinking LAG will bet far more hands than he will call with, unpaired junk which is trying to get you off of K- or A-hi. Raising only stops his bluffing sooner...there are only a few made hands that will call a raise if he's reasonable.

This breed of LAG i'm up against goes to SD with everything showdownable, so I would want to c/r and get K- and A- hi calldowns.

Surf