May i fold? HIGH CARD

[NateDog]

I'd donkbet a turn A and:

1)call a raise and check/call the river.
2)bet the river if not raised on the turn.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's an astute hand reader, he knows he's beating you, and is value betting here. Why would you think of calling the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get what you're asking. Do you mean that if we know we're behind, should we see the river? No, because any remotely sane holding by the villain here leaves us drawing dead. I'll give my thoughts as to why in the next post.

[POKhER]

Whats your hand read? you fold the turn ?

So if hes on JJ....

[NateDog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he's an astute hand reader, he knows he's beating you, and is value betting here. Why would you think of calling the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get what you're asking. Do you mean that if we know we're behind, should we see the river? No, because any remotely sane holding by the villain here leaves us drawing dead. I'll give my thoughts as to why in the next post.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. The question was rhetoric.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
What if an ACE fell ?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is actually a very good question, as depending on the answer it my have been a mistake to even see the turn.

Unless the CO is a special breed of überfish (and his performance on the first few hands suggests otherwise), I can see two probable holdings for a typical cold-caller: either a pocket pair that hit a set, or Ax with a spiked kicker. If it's a set, then we've been drawing dead since the flop. If he has a pair, then an A on the turn gives him two pair. If it's two pair, however, we're still drawing live, but how many outs we have depends on what kicker the villain has: a Queen is obviously a lock, but a 5 or 7 may counterfeit his two pair and leave us with the win.

Let's do some hand combos, assuming an A falls on the turn:

77, 22, 55 (9 total, drawing dead)
A7 (6 hands, 3 outs to a Q)
A5 (6 hands, 6 outs to a Q or 7)
A2 (6 hands, 9 outs to a Q, 7 or 5)

Assuming these are equaly likely, our chance of winning the hand becomes:
[9*(0/46) + 6*(3/46) + 6*(6/46) + 6*(9/46)]/(9+6+6+6) = 8.5% or so.

We're being asked to put in 1/7.5=13.3%; our chance of winning doesn't even come close to matching this, making this a clear fold even if an A hits.

On the other hand, our Q outs are clean if he has Ax and now leaves the villain as a two-outer; if a Q falls I would checkraise the turn. If he raises our checkraise then he's saying he doesn't care if we now have top pair and his only possible holding is a set: I think we can soundly fold. If he checks through then I'm not sure if he'd call if we just bet out the turn anyway.

At any rate, we've shown that an A doesn't improve us enough to continue, so the question becomes one of whether or not our Q outs are strong enough to make us see the turn in the first place. We'll be putting in 8% (or 12.5:1), which is enough to cover about 3.75 outs. Our A outs are only clean 8.5% of the time and can be discounted almost entirely, while our Q outs are clean the 2/3 of the time he doesn't have a set: 2 outs there. It doesn't look to me that even calling the flop is profitable unless the villain will often have JJ like the OP is now suggesting. That can't be right, can it?