15-30 Hand: Turn and River Play

[chaos]

Do you think the BB bluff raised on the turn and bluff bet on the river? What hands do you put the BB on that you can beat?

If the BB had only called on the turn and then bet the river when no low came and you checked, I think you should call. Even though you are getting smaller pot odds, that river bet smells like a bluff.

[bodie]

"On the Turn your hand may still be best for high and if not you still have many outs like another A or a 5."

Another Ace gives him trips, but also enables a straight.
A 5 gives him 1/2 the pot, most likely.

[bodie]

The main difference between O8 and Holdem in my opinion is realizing that in O8 someone will quite often have the nuts. That doesn't mean that loose players won't call with all sorts of things and drive you crazy when they win with a 3rd or 4th nut low, etc, but it does mean that the nuts are more often out there.
So, as chaos said, did you think the BB was bluffing the whole way? I agree that his raise (after you bet) is meaningful. I think you will lose the most money in this game if you keep chasing things, fall in love with your nut lows (when there's only one low card on the flop, and you can see that the limper is most likely also chasing a nut low), and fail to believe what an opponent is telling you with their betting. I agree that if BB had only called on the turn and then bet the river I would call because then it would feel more like a bluff, and you still would have two pair with Aces. But in my opinion it's a loose call, and a loose hope and depends mostly on "knowing" the other players at your table and what you can/should get away with.

I agree with Buzz on the turn for two reasons. The first is that you are out of postion and the second is that there are two callers. Heads up it is obviously a different situation. I agree with the earlier poster on the river call who said it was probably a neutral EV call. My action on the river would depend on the player.

One difference in Omaha and Holdem in my opinion, is that hand values change much more drastically in Omaha according to the number of players in the pot. In a heads up pot with this flop an overpair is very likely to be the best hand, but when you get two callers on the flop it quickly becomes marginal. To further illustrate my point if there had been a forth player in this pot the overpair is pretty much hopeless.

[pipes]

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"On the Turn your hand may still be best for high and if not you still have many outs like another A or a 5."

Another Ace gives him trips, but also enables a straight.
A 5 gives him 1/2 the pot, most likely.

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Regarding the A as a possible out, I should have clarified the fact that it may not be a clean out. But it is a shorthanded pot, the nuts are not always out.

A non heart 5 would most likely give our hero 3/4 or possible a scoop. Only by luck would someone be holding 47.

You are definitely calling the turn, why not bet? Checking/calling just seems real weak. It would be a real bad result if someone holding something A4TT that would have folded got a free card and spiked a T on the river.

[pipes]

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The main difference between O8 and Holdem in my opinion is realizing that in O8 someone will quite often have the nuts.

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Its important to make the distinction between low limit hands with many limpers and higher limit games with fewer opponents. The nuts are not always out.

The flop and turn bets just seem automatic to me. If you are calling on the turn, not leading out with a bet just feels real bad. Having it check around and have a player spike a miracle card that would have folded is a real bad mistake. A mistake that costs you a pot trying to save a theoretical portion of bet (in the fear that you will get raised)is not good.

I'm pretty sure he's beaten on the river. But its important to remember what the pot odds are offering. The BB does not have to be bluffing often.

[Buzz]

Jeff - Are you giving your opponents any credit for knowing something about the game? If you are, do you think your opponents are going to fold to your bet on the turn? Sure, anything is possible in an Omaha-8 game, but do you really think one of your opponents here will fold to your bet on the turn?

If not, then your bet really has nothing to do with the money that is already in the pot. You’re not protecting anything by betting. You’re not increasing your chance to win the pot by betting.

I don’t know if that principle is clear to you or not. But at any rate, let’s temporarily forget about the money that is already in the pot or the money you’ll earn on the next betting round if the river card is favorable to you.

Just think about the money that’s going into the pot on this betting round. Your opponents will together put two dollars into the pot for every dollar you put into the pot.

If I’m counting correctly, 23 river cards probably get you no part of this pot. Because of the pot size already, you might be pot committed, and you might win, but you’re more likely to lose your last bet than win it if any of the 23 bricks come on the river. There are 21 cards you’d like to see on the river, but most of them are only good for the low half of the pot. There are only five cards that give you much of a chance for high.

But some of the time when you win for low, the pair of aces will eke out a win for high - so let’s give your hand much the benefit of the doubt and say 7 of your 21 good cards will scoop for you while the other 14 will win half. (Unless your opponents are idiots or gambling fools they hold cards that have a reasonable chance to win for high, low, or both).

In that case, of the fresh money going into the pot on this betting round only,
• 7/44 you win two bets
• 14/44 you win one half bet
• 23/44 you lose one bet

If you add it together, you’ll see that you stand to lose more than you stand to gain by initiating fresh money into the pot.

It would be different if your hand had a better chance of scooping. But it doesn’t. Hard to say how much it doesn’t, because we don’t know exactly what cards your opponents hold. But unless your opponents are idiots or gambling fools they hold cards that have a better chance to win than random cards.

We can’t run a simulation to see where you stand because we don’t know what cards your opponents hold and it’s unlikely they hold random cards. We rely on general experience and past performance of these particular opponents. You know how these particular opponents behave better than I do, but I know, in general, when I have two decent opponents in a pot with me, they’re not holding garbage. In other words, even if you do get a favorable card for low on the river, you very well might get tied for low - and, in addition, those two aces of yours are probably not going to win the high for you.

That’s just my opinion.

Buzz

[pipes]

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Jeff - Are you giving your opponents any credit for knowing something about the game? If you are, do you think your opponents are going to fold to your bet on the turn? Sure, anything is possible in an Omaha-8 game, but do you really think one of your opponents here will fold to your bet on the turn?

If not, then your bet really has nothing to do with the money that is already in the pot. You’re not protecting anything by betting. You’re not increasing your chance to win the pot by betting.


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So noone ever calls a bet on the Flop and not the Turn? I can think of many weak hands on this flop that would do this. There are many hands that could beat you with a free card but would fold on the Turn. How about a flop call by the limper with A4JK?

Unless you plan on check/folding the Turn you must bet it, IMO.

[Buzz]

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Unless you plan on check/folding the Turn you must bet it, IMO.

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Why?

[pipes]

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Unless you plan on check/folding the Turn you must bet it, IMO.

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Why?

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The question should probably be why not? Its very likely that if you placed all the hands faceup, you would have the highest pot equity. You belong in the pot more than they do, so bet.

A bet may also get someone who would have beaten you for high to fold. This could be the case even if you are currently second best for high.

Being afraid of a raise is not a reason not to bet here. That would only cost you a fraction of a bet.

Read or reread Theory of Poker for this type of discussion.