Quiz - Family pot flop play with MPTK

[Mathieu]

I raise for the following reasons:

The pot is big and the board is only slightly coordinated. Getting 9-1 we should at least call. Raising is better since it protects our hand which might still be good. It might buy us the button and a free card. It might even make someone fold a better hand. Also, MP1 posted and checked, so he's unlikely to have a very good hand here (worth 3 betting).

[Duerig]

Call and turn an A. I think you're behind right now. I want to see the next card cheap.

[ClaytonN]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, MP1 posted and checked, so he's unlikely to have a very good hand here (worth 3 betting).

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I was wondering how long it would take before anyone noticed that.

[kirkt]

Is that true? Given the posterior probability, he is less likely to have AJ, JJ, KJ, QJ but far more likely to have J2, J7, 72 all of these need to see a thinner field on the turn.

I ran into this exact same situation posting behind at a casino once with Q7.

[Shillx]

Also, MP1 posted and checked, so he's unlikely to have a very good hand here (worth 3 betting).

This isn't a good thing for us. The fact that he posted and checked means that he could have any 2 cards here. Had he limped (and we knew how he played) we probably could rule outs hands like 72 and J2 that have us in bad shape.

[Aaron W.]

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sorry - I figured since folding is incorrect the raise was for value not to protect.

Is there more to this definition that I am missing? I'm not being a wise guy here I'm not sure what to call this type of bet otherwise...

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It might be splitting hairs a little bit, but here it goes:

I would call this a raise for protection. The *main purpose* of the raise is to make other players fold, thus protecting your hand if it happens to be best. I hesitate calling this a value raise because you're not *that* certain you have the best hand here, with everyone else in the pot left to act.

[Mathieu]

If he is betting with just TP, he is unlikely to have a very good kicker, that is worth 3 betting. This increases our chances of getting a free card on the turn.
J2 and 72 or much less likely than Jx where x is not A, K, 7, 2.

Maybe I'm being over-optimistic, but I think we should not worry about him having 2 pairs just because he has a weak random starting hand. He only bet out for now.

[Aaron W.]

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If he is betting with just TP, he is unlikely to have a very good kicker, that is worth 3 betting. This increases our chances of getting a free card on the turn.
J2 and 72 or much less likely than Jx where x is not A, K, 7, 2.

Maybe I'm being over-optimistic, but I think we should not worry about him having 2 pairs just because he has a weak random starting hand. He only bet out for now.

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Are you raising for a free card here?

[Disconnected]

With so many people left to act behind us, I think I'd like to offer them bad odds to continue, so I'd raise. I'd like fold out anyone with overs + back door draws. If 3-bet, you've still got 5 pretty clean outs.

[Mathieu]

I am raising to protect my hand and increase my chances of winning this 9 sb pot.

I think the free card is an added benefit. If I'm behind a J and get to see the river for 2 small bets, it "pays" for my hand protection raise.