Fun with gutshots

[pergesu]

Sure, but I think a lot of players will either raise smaller or larger with a big pocket pair, and generally limp with 88 or less. So the only pocket pairs I think he's likely to hold are TT and 99. The chances of him having unpaired broadways are a lot higher than of him holding TT or 99.

[HighestCard]

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I think a lot of players will either raise smaller or larger with a big pocket pair, and generally limp with 88 or less.

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I think your completly wrong in your assesment here. 11 players limp with AA, or min raise more than rasing large. They raise 3x the BB with hands like 44-10,10 more than limping.

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Here was my thought process.

Preflop: I'm getting 2-1, I've got live cards, I have a good idea of his range (AT+, KJ+). I feel that I can outplay him on the flop - so I like the favorable pot odds.

On the flop: I don't think he has a piece of that at all. I'm betting the turn if it's not a A, K, or J.

Turn: Safe card, lead out and take the pot.

The fact that I had a gutshot doesn't even matter. I'll make the play with any two cards, as long as I don't see an A/K/J turn.

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If you put him on any two broadway cards(not incorrectly, in my opinion), why do you assume the flop missed him. I could see this at a higher buyin if no face cards flopped, but not at an 11 with the queen.

I also don't making that large call on the flop if you only intend to make the raise some of the time....if any face card hits you're screwed, and he may have the queen. I don't know the math off hand, but the risk/reward must be -EV. (maybe there's something I'm missing)

Overall, this seems much too complicated for an 11...although I do use moves like this in ring games with people I know well, and it works wonders.