AA

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
"I also think its important not just to state "WA/WB" as a justification for passive play. If "WA" is 98% of the time, and "WB" is 2% of the time, clearly a raise is needed. Not to say that that is necessarily the case here, but I think the "WA/WB" gets overused around here on occasion."

I think the chances of UTG having me beat are extremely slim. I also think there is a significant chance his hand can't call a raise at anytime.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so sure you won't get a crying call if the river is raised.

[Michael Davis]

"I'm not so sure you won't get a crying call if the river is raised."

Neither am I, but what are we putting him on? Honestly, most guys will give up and check that river with an 8 or something like 77. I don't know why, but they do (this is 5-10). Especially guys who limp UTG. So I think when he bets the river it's even more likely he's completely bluffing.

-Michael

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not raise the river?

I also think its important not just to state "WA/WB" as a justification for passive play. If "WA" is 98% of the time, and "WB" is 2% of the time, clearly a raise is needed. Not to say that that is necessarily the case here, but I think the "WA/WB" gets overused around here on occasion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, WA/WB should be used as a justification to be less worried about free cards. you don't have to be worried about free cards as much if you're either way ahead, or way behind, but not in the middle. if you have the nuts, for example, then it's vacuously true that you're WA or WB and you don't care about free cards.

there aren't many hands that could exist where you're either WAY ahead 98% of the time, but WAY behind 2% of the time. the best thing I can think of is a flush on a low double paired board. a lot of the time you aren't sure whether you're WA or WB (the percentages are close to even, as in the classic weak A versus a PF 3-bet on an A high board example), and that's when the passive line comes in, to max wins/min losses. but the concept of not caring as much about free cards comes into play whenever you're WA/WB, regardless of the percentage that you're either.

But of course, the EV of how you play the hand depends on so much more than whether you're WA/WB, especially multiway where you have so many more options...will they call two cold? will they 3 bet a worse hand? will they fold straightaway but continue to bluff me? can I trap anyone?

now you would want to raise in this hand for two reasons:
1) protect your hand
2) maximize the money that goes into the pot

all that WA/WB means is that 1) is not as much a concern, and I don't think anyone here could argue that we need to charge any draws on this flop, even pocket pairs aren't getting odds if we don't spew like a maniac on the turn + riv.

so now we need to decide if not raising accomplishes 2). I think this was the point you had in mind when you mentioned overuse of WA/WB, that WA/WB has nothing to do with this aspect of the hand. I don't think it necessarily means that a raise is needed, that's a seperate issue IMO. I will agree with you that it doesn't necessarily dictate passivity, though it does lessen your vulnerability to free cards

[krishanleong]

I don't understand this hand at all. I understand the concepts involved, but I guess I don't believe that going for overcalls on the turn and river is more profitable than raising the turn or river.

Krishan

[Trix]

I´ve changed my mind.

I think slowplaying the flop is fine as the 3 guys behind are drawing very slim, either runner runner or two outs, since the board is paired low, so letting them in for one bet is good.

On the turn though, UTG will very likely call a raise, so you will make more if SB or BB coldcalls. I think this will happen often enough to raise it up. Either XXd,Jx, T9, 8x or some pocket pair, praying that you have just big diamonds or maybe just praying.

[surfdoc]

We need a read on utg. Unless he is a super donk, he never ever has a 3 there. His relative position is just too perfect for a CR to bet out.

[Nietzsche]

Kind of sexy.

Obviously you think the extra overcalls make up for the rather small risk someone will catch up. I think you are right that the risk of someone catching up is small because of the paired board in comparison the extra bets you are gaining. Raising the turn would not chase a flush or an openended straight draw out anyway - the only real risk is if you are letting the gut shots in too cheaply but again the chance of that is small.

An added benefit is that if utg is so loose he can have a 3 he gets no chance to 3-bet.

[Victor]

nh tommy.

i do think a river raise is better tho. there is a good chance that one of the overcallers will call 2 cold here with many pairs.

[pheasant tail (no 18)]

great post.

Not sure if I could of resisted the turn raise, but I think what you may be giving up by not raising possible str8/flush draws is more than compensated for those few times that a 3 is out there.

If the turn is an A or a 3, do you still go for overcalls?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I think what you may be giving up by not raising possible str8/flush draws is more than compensated for those few times that a 3 is out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You are going to get hammered if a 3 is out either way. And it's not likely for a 3 to be out.

Krishan