Mercy call with sedond pair?

[numeri]

Preflop is raise/call depending on your preference and the table. If there are lots of cold-callers, I'd probably rather limp. If a raise will clear out some players, raise it up. This is not clear-cut as some players make it out to be.

On the flop, the bet is OK, but you'll rarely know where you are against a field this big. A caller could mean a 88, Q9, A2, who knows... You may want to check and see what happens behind you. Definitely see the turn, though.

[jrz1972]

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Raise preflop. Seriously.

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[Hojglad]

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Who am I gonna check-raise on the flop?

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Possibly no one. It's better to try to do this than not, though. Too many damn players at this level auto-bet when checked to on the button. If the flop gets checked through, giving a free card is not really a huge disaster. Usually a flop that's checked through here means no one has top pair. If this is the case, there's only one overcard you are concerned about.

In other words, it would be great if you could eliminate some of the people in this pot with a checkraise, but at the same time, you don't really care if it gets checked through because if it does, you very likely have the best hand, and there aren't many cards that can come to give someone a better pair. I don't mind not raising KJs from EP. The EV of a call vs a raise is very similar with a hand like this. Besides, this hand gains a lot of value from a multiway pot.

[Greg J]

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And I don't feel comfortable raising KJs EP. Leak?

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Yes. At party .5/1, absofuckinglutely, yes. Not raising KJs utg in these games is worse than limping utg w J4s.

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Aren't you exaggerating juuuust a little bit?

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Yeah I think he is exagerating. I don't like the limp, and I think this should be a clear preflop raise. However, that comparisson is a bit over the top. I think you lose a lot by not raising preflop -- you don't properly punish the guys that will cold call garbage hands like J4s or A3o. But just calling here is merely a venal sin, not a mortal one (IMO).

Raise > Limp >>>>>>>> Fold

[Bodhi]

No. When you limp with J4s utg, you lose at most a fraction of a bet. When you limp with a hand as strong as KJs at a table with lots of loose players who would call your raise, you lose around 2-3 bets (on average).

Let's suppose your are in your super-loose .5/1 game and you have KJs utg. Suppose that 4-6 players will call if you raise. Now, over 43k hands my win% with KJs is around 47%, but that's at 1/2 and 2/4 where there are fewer cold callers. For the sake of argument, let's say your win% with KJs is 33%. If 6 players limp and you run the cards cold, you win 1 bet on average because we subtract the bet you invested. If 6 players go in for a raise and you run the cards cold, you win 2 bets on average (again, subtract your investment. Not raising cost you a bet. This is a simplification, but you get the idea. Now add in all the postflop bets you can extract with a great hand that can make a big flush, and not raising costs even more. When the pot gets big, players will continue on with worse hands, which makes you money. Build a big pot and hope for the best.

[jrz1972]

I don't know that it's really all that much of an exaggeration.

Raising PF gets more bets into the pot when you have an equity edge, and it brutally punishes people for making the mistake of colcalling with crap, which our beloved Party villains love to do.

Limping with J4s costs you one sb. Failing to raise with KJs costs you many sbs when you drag a pot that's lighter than it should have been. And of course, failing to raise sometimes costs you the whole pot when you allow the blinds a free shot to outflop you.

[irishpint]

why are we check raising this flop? is a Q folding? We're only scared of 1 overcard, no flush draws and with no PF raise we're hopefully not looking @ an OESD and even if we were they aint folding. I dont get it. And we have no reason to be sure someone will bet the flop. I'd rather lead the flop and then maybe c/r the turn or something, i dunno. (That might be stupid, i haven't decided. I think it'd be awesome tho).

[Greg J]

I understand yr thought process, but disagree. I much perfer a limp with KJs than a hand like AJo. KJs stands up better to limpers b/c of its draw potential. But let's not get too caught up in arguing this point -- we both agree it's a clear raise.

[Aaron W.]

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No. When you limp with J4s utg, you lose at most a fraction of a bet. When you limp with a hand as strong as KJs at a table with lots of loose players who would call your raise, you lose around 2-3 bets (on average).

Let's suppose your are in your super-loose .5/1 game and you have KJs utg. Suppose that 4-6 players will call if you raise. Now, over 43k hands my win% with KJs is around 47%, but that's at 1/2 and 2/4 where there are fewer cold callers. For the sake of argument, let's say your win% with KJs is 33%. If 6 players limp and you run the cards cold, you win 1 bet on average because we subtract the bet you invested. If 6 players go in for a raise and you run the cards cold, you win 2 bets on average (again, subtract your investment. Not raising cost you a bet. This is a simplification, but you get the idea. Now add in all the postflop bets you can extract with a great hand that can make a big flush, and not raising costs even more. When the pot gets big, players will continue on with worse hands, which makes you money. Build a big pot and hope for the best.

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I think you're butchering Ed's argument from a while back (I know someone has a link). In that case, you had AJs in the big blind with a bunch of limpers. There, you *KNOW* that you're going to get a bunch of callers when you raise.

A raise UTG does not have the same expectation of getting callers. You *MIGHT* get total donks cold-calling garbage, but you will also lose a bunch of them who don't want to cold-call. Limping and raising run much closer in value because your raise drives out hands that you crush that would limp, and a call loses value because you get less bets per person when you have an equity edge.

[Aaron W.]

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Call. So many people bet when checked to with total air that it's ridiculous. I agree with Aaron's sentiments here - you need to be checkraising this flop, not betting into a field of 8.4 billion.

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I didn't say check-raise. I just said check.