Value Bets Costing me Lots of $$$...

[me454555]

you only have to win this 1/9 of the time to show a profit. I don't think you can fold b/c there is def an 11% chance this guy is a nutjob

[Roy6]

in hand 3 you are good about 1 in 100.
the guy has to be totally retarded to bluffcheckraise that dry river card. Hero represents AK at least and is never expected to fold in a million years.

[7ontheline]

I think folding in hand 3 would be bad. Not super-duper bad, but bad. I think you easily catch a bluff or slowplayed/overplayed K at least 1 out of 9 times, unless you have a great read.