Omaha HL: Flopping 2 pair and sets

[Big Dave D]

Buzz - were in danger of doing this to death :-)

I agree with most of your comments on the hand, especially the fact that the nuts may not be out there.

However more than likely, a low of some form is out there so u are still shooting for half the pot. Also, I noticed that you said you were playing for the turn, then you would re-evaluate on the turn depending what to hit. Therefore your 1.8 odds have fallen to pieces - you are back to a 4:1 dog to make your hand by the turn...maybe you could shave this a lttle by assuming that you actually have the high at this point. Anyway, at a 4:1 shot 5 way action is not enough...without spending the time to do the maths, I would suspect you need the 7-8 players staying on the flop, depending on the size of the pot already.

I am not really saying you shouldnt play the hand, nor that in the right game/with the right action you wouldn't play it aggressively - just that your original statement that you would cap against 5 opponents simply isn't right.

Next hand?

gl

Dave
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[Buzz]

"your original statement that you would cap against 5 opponents simply isn't right."

Hi Dave - No. I was wrong.

Thanks for the correction.

Buzz

[comic2b]

Interesting thread. I read the whole thing and this is the post that seems most appropriate for comments.

The hand to be scared of is 25xx. I think this is what you are trying to put people on. If there is any sort of heat or pressure I am folding. I think you play in this situation. In early position I either bet, to be first in or smooth call, to see a cheap turn. I think if someone has a wheel the correct play is always to raise. LOL, I'm already thinking of exceptions, but the wheel is the only thing that cant get screwed up. I'm raising no matter what with a wheel to tax the set of aces and nut flush draw. I lead bet to see if I'm raised and figure out what to do on turn. I'll call one additional bet, but not two.

In my opinion, based on the games I play there are a few hands that you can't move with a crowbar. 1) Set of Aces 2) Nut heart draw 3) Maybe the 2-6.

If I'm in late position I'm just calling to see the next card as cheap as possible. If nobody has entered I will bet, anticipating a potential check raise.

Alternative theory. I might look for the opportunity to check raise to limit the field. I think this comes into potential play on the turn. If I don't put anybody on the wheel, but maybe a 2-6, various flush draws, and other two pair combinations. I might either raise or checkraise to thin the field. What I would be trying to do is get the weak heart draws to fold e.g. 10 high hearts. It can also be good for free river, table image etc. However if you see a wheel your likely facing a reraise and are drawing behind them for half the pot. DOH. Just my thoughts on the interesting hand.

The best general advice is playing sets or top two that I have is as follows.

Sets - much better than top two. You have more outs to hit. Hand is also stronger without improvement

The texture of board. How big is set? 8 10 K A? Obviously the higher the better. Its even more important as to how it ranks to other cards. A set of tens is better on a 10 6 2 than a set of Queens with A Q 5.

The other thing is the flush and straight possibilities. A set with two flush cards is definately weaker than without. The straight is also scary 5 6 7 etc. With dangerous boards don't play your set like its god. It is almost impossible to move a draw to the nut flush and those wraps.

The best and worse is when you have a set and there are two low cards. If low is out there they can be freerolling on you. I won a huge pot tonight (sweeper) with 2 3 of diamonds. Guess what they had? Now the greatest thing in the world is if on the turn there are two to a low. I will jam everything in the world into the pot. Provided no possible straights and flush on board. The sweetest thing is when the board pairs on the river. You can actually see all the low draws hearts generally break.

With top two I need some other draw as well; gut shots, runner runner for a flush, low etc. I also generally try to isolate the field if possible that way maybe your two pair will hold up.

Sorry for being longwinded, but I read so much on these forums and even ask occassional questions every once in a while feel an urgent need to give back [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]

[iblucky4u2]

Buzz has given you some great numbers as a guide. Here are some other factors that I tend to use in these tough situations.

1 - If there is a low already made, I tend to give up anything less than nut draws. Those I only play if the pots are multi-way (as you pointed out I like more than 5 callers). Thus, your AA would be playable with lots of callers.
2 - Even if the conditions for 1 are met, I will not get involved if there is a lot of jammin going on. Buzz may say the odds are in your favor, but I don't like the huge variances with the low already made.
3 - Hand #1 would be a lot more appealing if there was a low card (2 or 5) instead of the KJ or even a flush draw. The extra outs give the hand much more value in the long run.
4 - Hand #2 is a much tougher situation - Top and bottom pair. If the 2 comes, you can still lose to a higher set (9s or the turn card). On the other hand, if the board pairs on the turn you can get some low draw $ in the pot and even scoop a few (Buzz - what would the odds be for this?)
Hope MHO helps.

[Buzz]

4 - Hand #2 is a much tougher situation - Top and bottom pair. If the 2 comes, you can still lose to a higher set (9s or the turn card). On the other hand, if the board pairs on the turn you can get some low draw $ in the pot and even scoop a few (Buzz - what would the odds be for this?)

iblucky4u2 - When you hold A2XX and flop top and bottom pairs, aces and deuces, then, right off the bat, unless XX happens to be something like 34 (which it usually isn’t), you generally can only win half the pot (because if low isn’t already there, it probably will be by the time you get to the river). My current thinking is that top and bottom pair, if aces and small, is not generally worth playing in a typical ring game. (Heads-up in a tournament, there would be other considerations). And Aces and nines as top and bottom pairs, when the flop is AT9n, would be yet another matter.

Because of the betting structure at Hollywood Park, where I most often play in typical ring games, I’ll tend to either be in first or last betting position when I do flop top and bottom two pairs. From last betting position, what I would do with top and bottom two pairs obviously depends on what has happened before it is my turn to act. From first position, I went through a period when I more or less routinely bet after flopping top and bottom two pairs. But I don’t do that any more. Now, from first position, I more or less routinely check after flopping aces over deuces - intending to generally fold to a bet.

To answer your question, after flopping aces and deuces, say a flop of Ah2c9d when holding Ad2d3hKc, the probability of catching a deuce on the turn or river is 1-(42/45)*(41/44) = 0.130. In that case you would usually have a full house, which might win, but which might come in an expensive second best. (Usually here = 99.7%, since the other three times out of a thousand you’d have quad deuces). For this particular full house, I think you’d win roughly two thirds of the time (and lose to a better full house one third of the time) in a full, loose game.

Continuing answering your question, you have an equal probability (0.130) of catching an ace on the turn or river. In that case, you have a slightly better full house - one that probably (I think) wins roughly three fourths of the time (and loses to a better full house one third of the time) in a full, loose game.

Thus your odds of improving to a full house or quads after flopping top and bottom pair are about three to one against - but roughly one third or one fourth of the time, when you do make a full house, you’ll get cracked by a better one. Of course there is some chance of unimproved aces over deuces winning - but in a full, loose game, chasing with top and bottom two pairs is usually not a good place to be.

Since you’re usually only playing for half the pot after you flop aces over deuces, my current thinking is to generally check and then concede the pot to a bet from first position. (From last position, as already stated, “it depends”).

Buzz

[ACPlayer]

5% edges are very nice. If only I could make bets with that edge all day long.

Remember that the casinos make a lot of money on roulette where they have just over a 5% edge.

[beernutz]

Walk into a casino and tell them you want to bet $1 Billion on one spin of the wheel and see what they say.

[Buzz]

Hi Beernutz - A 5% edge in this particular case is a moot point, because there is no 5% edge. I did a stupid thing and calculated odds for making the hand in two cards when I should have taken the betting rounds one at a time and compared the second round odds with the odds for making the hand using only one card - the turn.

I apologize for my error and again thank Dave for keeping after me until I finally realized what I had done. I'm still not finished thinking about flopped top set and flopped top two pair. Obviously there are many different situations.

However, with regard to playing a 5% edge, the more I think about it, the more I favor playing it. Small edges happen over and over in poker. To use your roulette analogy, just like a casino, you play one small edge after another and you show a profit.

Of course the casino wouldn’t take your billion dollar bet, because it is the additive value of the small edges that gives the casinos their huge advantage. But casinos do take their actually generally less than 5% edge on each small wager you make - and that’s what we’re talking about here. Each 5% edge you have in a poker game doesn’t amount to much - just as each bet and even each pot doesn’t amount to much, at least in a limit game. However, taken collectively, those small edges give a good player a huge edge over the course of time - just as small edges taken collectively give a casino a huge edge over the course of time.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[beernutz]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
Of course the casino wouldn’t take your billion dollar bet, because it is the additive value of the small edges that gives the casinos their huge advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess my reply was a bit cryptic but this is exactly the point I was trying to make. Thanks for the rest of your reply. I think I learn something new or think about something differently after each of your posts.