cold-callin' AJ

[adanthar]

Yeah, I'm sleep deprived, my bad. But you're not winning 28%, either. He's not gonna value bet Kx on a board that was raised PF and has three clubs and an ace on it; that's wishful thinking (if he had that he might put you all in, not bet 3/4 of the pot and 2/3 of your stack.)

The turn call's biggest problem is that you'll also have to call a lot of rivers and be losing on many of them, like this one for example. Once he bets it's a reverse implied odds hand, because he's controlling the bet size.

This hand changes drastically if you have the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], BTW, because now you are definitely betting the flop and can sometimes semibluff push the turn even if you check.

[Rduke55]

Did he have the Ac?

[Roman]

Fold pf, too much could go wrong with this hand. AJo is just not a good hand to be calling raises with.

[schwza]

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Did he have the Ac?

[/ QUOTE ]

no.

[durron597]

This looks like 77. If the stacks were deeper I would like a raise to try to isolate the LAG, but since your position relative to the table sucks and the stacks aren't that deep I would just fold preflop.

[nath]

If UTG+1 is LAG, what do you think about a reraise PF to isolate? You should get it heads up, or induce a fold. Even if there are stronger hands behind you, many of them will fold to that action.
(Knowing the results, AQo probably wouldn't call OOP facing a raise and reraise, unless he was paying as much attention as you were, or he's like super-LAG and wants to get in with probably the worst of it.)

[fnurt]

He wouldn't value bet a king, but he might value bet Ax with the ace of clubs. It's unlikely he calls with such a holding in the SB, however.

[SoBeDude]

I think if you're going to play this hand and try to outplay your opponent, then you need to bet the flop.

You have a second nut flush draw, a gutshot straight, and an overcard. I'd bet like 2/3 of the pot here.

If they check-raise hard you can get away. if they just call, you can see the river for free as they'll most likely check to you again. So bet the flop, see how they act, and re-evaluate on the turn.

I think your line is the worst option.

-Scott

[SoBeDude]

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thanks for the response.

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I don't call this PF, although I would on the button with that read; you have no idea what's behind you and it's for over 10% of your stack as it is.

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these are good points, but i'm well ahead of the pfr's range, and i'm going to get play in position against him (as long as no one repops). it's only 8-handed, so there aren't that many behind me.

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Having gotten to that flop, I'd bet it and be prepared to call a push - UTG+1 has nothing, SB can have anything and you probably have ~12-ish good outs even if behind

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in retrospect, i was too fearful of the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the flop and maybe not enough on the turn. as you said, the pfr has either nothing or the nut flush here - he'd bet the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or any made hand. so yeah, i like a bet here.

the turn call i still think is right. there's a decent chance the action will go: i call, river bricks, villain checks, i check, villain has 97o for no hand. he's lag enough that i have a very profitable call (or push) if a club gets there, and same thing for a T.

and, given my read at the time, i think my river call was definitely correct. the lag SB did not raise a lag pfr, so i did not expect SB to have any of QQ+ / AQ+. JT is a reasonable possibility, and so is a made flush or KQ, but i think villain is going to also "value" bet K6, Q9, 88, etc. also, i only have to be good there 2/7 ~28%, not 40.

however, my read was not correct. villain has AQ [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I made my other response before I read your above post. I think this increases the value of a flop bet. Frankly, that is a pretty tough board to call a big bet from you holding only second pair.

He can easily put you on a king or clubs, giving HIM possibly zero clean outs against your flop bet.

So bet it on the flop and put him to the test. Reevaluate on the turn.

-Scott

[SoBeDude]

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Fold pf, too much could go wrong with this hand. AJo is just not a good hand to be calling raises with.

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If UTG is really liberal with his raises PF, you might reraise here with AJ. calling is the worst of the three options IMO.

-Scott