-1.5 in baseball

[jmillerdls]

well...that's not very correct. TONS of baseball games are won by 1 run. You think the bookmakers are just giving away money?

[craig r]

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well...that's not very correct. TONS of baseball games are won by 1 run. You think the bookmakers are just giving away money?

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Yes they are. The books are so dumb. They are the real losers.

craig

[The13atman]

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I don't agree with him then. You stated that he is a "genius" at this whole sports betting thing. How so, what is his record?

My real big stiff with +1.5 is you only get a 1 run handicap. Most games aren't won/lost by 1 run, unless the astros/twins/nats are playing.

I'd really like to see your math behind it mrbaseball. I've made all these runline picks and I think the team I bet on is either gonna lose, or win by 2 runs. I haven't yet lost a runline bet because the team only won by 1 run

Redsox over Drays -1.5 -125/-120
Padres over Dbacks -1.5 +165
Braves over Nationals -1.5 +150
Astros over Reds -1.5 +140
Indians over Detroit -1.5 +125
Mets over Phillies -1.5 +125

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So you've been betting for what, one or two days? It's not like 1/3 of all games are decided by 1 run or anything. Nope, you sir are a gambling guru, and the books and people who have decades of experience winning at sports betting have it wrong.

Maybe I should just let these buffoons continue their flawed thinking. Educating them hurts us all in the long run, much like teaching pot odds to fish in the Party chatbox. Bah. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

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I don't agree with him then. You stated that he is a "genius" at this whole sports betting thing. How so, what is his record?

My real big stiff with +1.5 is you only get a 1 run handicap. Most games aren't won/lost by 1 run, unless the astros/twins/nats are playing.

I'd really like to see your math behind it mrbaseball. I've made all these runline picks and I think the team I bet on is either gonna lose, or win by 2 runs. I haven't yet lost a runline bet because the team only won by 1 run

Redsox over Drays -1.5 -125/-120
Padres over Dbacks -1.5 +165
Braves over Nationals -1.5 +150
Astros over Reds -1.5 +140
Indians over Detroit -1.5 +125
Mets over Phillies -1.5 +125

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So you've been betting for what, one or two days? It's not like 1/3 of all games are decided by 1 run or anything. Nope, you sir are a gambling guru, and the books and people who have decades of experience winning at sports betting have it wrong.

Maybe I should just let these buffoons continue their flawed thinking. Educating them hurts us all in the long run, much like teaching pot odds to fish in the Party chatbox. Bah. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

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I respectfully requested his track record. I'd like to know why betting +1.5 is ever a good bet; I would like to see some math.

[craig r]

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I don't agree with him then. You stated that he is a "genius" at this whole sports betting thing. How so, what is his record?

My real big stiff with +1.5 is you only get a 1 run handicap. Most games aren't won/lost by 1 run, unless the astros/twins/nats are playing.

I'd really like to see your math behind it mrbaseball. I've made all these runline picks and I think the team I bet on is either gonna lose, or win by 2 runs. I haven't yet lost a runline bet because the team only won by 1 run

Redsox over Drays -1.5 -125/-120
Padres over Dbacks -1.5 +165
Braves over Nationals -1.5 +150
Astros over Reds -1.5 +140
Indians over Detroit -1.5 +125
Mets over Phillies -1.5 +125

[/ QUOTE ]

So you've been betting for what, one or two days? It's not like 1/3 of all games are decided by 1 run or anything. Nope, you sir are a gambling guru, and the books and people who have decades of experience winning at sports betting have it wrong.

Maybe I should just let these buffoons continue their flawed thinking. Educating them hurts us all in the long run, much like teaching pot odds to fish in the Party chatbox. Bah. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

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I respectfully requested his track record. I'd like to know why betting +1.5 is ever a good bet; I would like to see some math.

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I don't know why. But, I hope Tech will answer. But, I do know some pros that bet it sometimes. Because there is more value than the straight money line. And I know totals have something to do with the value as well.

craig

[mrbaseball]

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Most games aren't won/lost by 1 run

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This is true. Do you know just how many games are won/lost by one run? It's something you should be very familiar with if you are betting on this particular wager.

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Redsox over Drays -1.5 -125/-120
Padres over Dbacks -1.5 +165
Braves over Nationals -1.5 +150
Astros over Reds -1.5 +140
Indians over Detroit -1.5 +125
Mets over Phillies -1.5 +125

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Red Sox have won by 2 or more 43% of the time
San Diego has won by 2 or more 32.5% of the thime
Atlanta has won by 2 or more 41% of the time
Houston has won by 2 or more 38% of the time
Cleveland has won by 2 or more 38% of the time
NYMets have won by 2 or more 41% of the time

Did you factor any of that in when you were deciding on these bets? Just wondering? You may win all 6 or lose all six but if you don't know why you made the bets and the mathematical justification behind them you should really try to understand that aspect of baseball betting.

I don't have a massive stat archive like some do, mainly because I don't know how to attain one, but I do look at several stats before I make a bet. Here are the basic stats I look at...

---------------------Stats to Check----------------------------

--Pitcher Stats--
Pitcher vs Team
Pitcher Away Era
Pitcher Home Era
Pitcher vs RHB
PItcher vs LHB
Pitcher Last 5 Starts
Pitcher Stats For Month


--Hitter Stats--
Hitters vs Pitcher
Hitters vs RHP
Hitters vs LHP
Hitters AVG At Ballpark
Hitters AVG vs Bullpen


--Team Stats--
Team vs Division
Team vs Team
Team L10 Games
Scored Runs Per Game
Allowed Runs Per Game

For Over/Under Picks I like to bet when 2 teams from the same category are playing each other.

-----Good Over Bets-----

Team | Era | RPG |
Reds: 5.19 5.197
Drays: 5.42 4.689
Rangers: 5.10 5.381

-----Good Under Bets-----

Team | Era | RPG |
Nats: 3.74 3.945
Astros: 3.58 4.234
Twins: 3.63 4.378

After that I check this other forum I go to to see what the top unit earners are picking for tonight. I have not yet seen one of them bet +1.5.

Reasons for the games I picked:

Braves over Nationals -1.5 +145- Nats suck at scoring runs, Braves pitcher for the day is solid.
Indians over Detroit -1.5 +125- Indians are on fire, and Detroit's era over L7 is over 8
Redsox over Drays -1.5 -125- Wakefield has excellent history at drays, and Red Sox have set major league record for consecutive games with more than 7 runs
Mets over Phillies -1.5 +125- Pedro is a very good pitcher. This pick was suggested by the other forum i visit.
Padres over Dbacks -1.5 +165- This pick was suggested by the forum I visit as a sure win.
Astros over Reds -1.5 +135- Petite is the comeback pitcher of the year, and the Reds haven't scored much over the last few games.
Yankees/Mariners over -120 +7.5- Felix Hernandez is over valued, and Randy Johnson is old. Plenty of runs will score.

[mrbaseball]

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I don't have a massive stat archive like some do

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One run records are in every expanded standing section on every typical website (espn, yahoo etc.) so it isn't any great secret.

If you have read any of my past posting you will know I don't try to pick winners but concentrate on looking for edges in the line. I firmly believe no one can consistently pick winners but consistently finding mispriced lines is very possible. By finding many mispriced lines over the course of a season adds up quite nicely. I don't know how you approach baseball betting or what your understanding of baseball math is but I can pretty much guarantee if you typically lay runs 6 times a day you will have problems.

[DougOzzzz]

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Most games aren't won/lost by 1 run

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This is true. Do you know just how many games are won/lost by one run? It's something you should be very familiar with if you are betting on this particular wager.

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Redsox over Drays -1.5 -125/-120
Padres over Dbacks -1.5 +165
Braves over Nationals -1.5 +150
Astros over Reds -1.5 +140
Indians over Detroit -1.5 +125
Mets over Phillies -1.5 +125

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Red Sox have won by 2 or more 43% of the time
San Diego has won by 2 or more 32.5% of the thime
Atlanta has won by 2 or more 41% of the time
Houston has won by 2 or more 38% of the time
Cleveland has won by 2 or more 38% of the time
NYMets have won by 2 or more 41% of the time

Did you factor any of that in when you were deciding on these bets? Just wondering? You may win all 6 or lose all six but if you don't know why you made the bets and the mathematical justification behind them you should really try to understand that aspect of baseball betting.

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You see, these percentages really aren't that useful. The teams ACTUAL records would be far more useful (or better yet, Pythagorean records).

I've studied this in depth.

A team's past performance in 1 run games has VERY LITTLE predictive value for their future success.

Your response to my analysis which came to this conclusion was something along the lines of: "I'm going to continue using 1-run records because what happened is more likely to happen in the future." Okay, but 1 run games are MOSTLY a coin flip. Yes, good teams win 1 run games more often than they lose them. And yes, teams with good bullpens win SLIGHTLY more 1 run games than they lose. But if you flipped a coing 20 times, and heads came up 13 times, would you take -120 odds if I offered it to you that the next flip would come out heads?

The 2nd factor would lead one to suspect that there would be some sort of correlation based on past results in 1-run games and future results. There really isn't. The problem is, a team's bullpen strength is a small factor in 1-run success, greatly outweighed by luck, and also a team's overall quality. Also, past bullpen success correlates less strongly with future bullpen success than most other aspects of the game (hitting, starting pitching, etc).

What's left is that the strength of the bullpen gets drowned out by luck, isn't always repeatable, and luck takes over.

When evaluating the run line you really need only *2* pieces of information: the money line, and the totals line. I've developed a formula based on the expected RS-RA of the game predicting what percent of the games will be decided by 1 run and who wins them. It's based on 45 years of baseball data.

From my tests against the actual run line, the results show that the actual run lines are almost always in line with the money line/total. That means, that the slightly increased vig usually takes over and the run line ends up being -EV compared to the money line. However, it's not a big difference, and not every game matches my formulas (about 75%).

I think the main purpose of the run line is to redistribute your wins and losses in a more favorable fashion. Maybe you don't like risking $200 to win $100, so you bet the -1.5 line realizing that it's not quite as good a bet. Or maybe you don't like making a bet that wins only 35% of the time even if it's +200, so you take the 1.5 runs and win more often (but win less money over the long run, usually).

[SumZero]

I agree that record in 1-run games for a particular team have very little predictive value.

But knowning that AL teams this year have had about 29.4% of end as a 1-run game helps show that the reasoning that most games aren't decided by 1-run and hence -1.5 run lines are great is clearly flawed (the reasoning, the conclusion may or may not be flawed).